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Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of Toronto Blue Jays SS Bo Bichette in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Projected to be a big source of speed while contributing in all other categories, will Bichette be worth his draft price?
It's easy to joke that the 2020 Toronto Blue Jays will have the last names of a 1990's All-Star team, but the kids have a realistic shot at surpassing their fathers. This author isn't as high on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as most, but Cavan Biggio looks like an advanced hitter with the potential to blend speed and power in one fantasy-friendly package.
Of course, Bo Bichette may end up outproducing both of them. MLB Pipeline ranked Bichette as the top prospect in the organization after Vladito's callup and his ranking of eighth overall means that it wasn't because of a weak system. He generally hit in the minors but projected as more of a speed play than a power bat in the fantasy game.
Bichette put up the exact inverse of that projection in the Show, slugging an impressive 11 HR in 212 PAs to go along with a .311/.358/.571 line but stealing only four bases. So, who is the real Bo Bichette, and will he be worth his current 67.8 ADP on FantastyPros? Let's find out.
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Farming with a Bichette
Bichette made his upper-level debut in 2018 at Double-A (New Hampshire), hitting .286/.343/.453 with 11 HR and 32 steals over 595 PAs. He was caught 11 times on the bases, leading to a solid success rate of about 74% that had fantasy owners drooling over what he might be able to accomplish in the majors. His plate-discipline metrics were also strong, with both his 17 K% and 8.1 BB% ranking as above average. His 6.3% HR/FB didn't suggest much power, but his 40.8 FB% suggested that he could still make a run at 20 HR through sheer volume of fly balls.
Those numbers spoke of future fantasy stardom by themselves but the campaign was even more impressive given that New Hampshire is an extreme pitcher's park, ranking in the 37th percentile for HR and 14th for BABIP in 2019. The fact that Bichette still posted a .331 BABIP with some power suggested that his raw skills could play anywhere; especially at the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre that he would eventually call home in the big leagues.
The Blue Jays evidently agreed, promoting Bichette to Triple-A (Buffalo) to begin the 2019 season. He delivered again, slashing .275/.333/.473 with eight homers in 244 PA. He also had 15 steals in 20 attempts, a 7.8 walk-rate, and 19.7% K-rate - all marks right in line with his previous results at Double-A. However, while Bichette improved to 17.4% HR/FB (with the nitro-charged ball Triple-A baseball likely helping), he cratered to a 26.7% FB% that was a career-low.
Buffalo is traditionally a pitcher's park, but that silly ball put it in the 88th percentile for home runs last season. It was only in the 38th percentile for BABIP though, so we can assume that there were some real skills behind Bichette's .317 BABIP. As it was apparent that Bichette had nothing left to learn in the minors, the Blue Jays summoned him to Toronto in late-July.
An Impressive Debut
Bichette began his big league tenure on a tear, slashing .325/.357/.617 in August while also setting a team record by hitting a double in nine straight games. He then slipping to .254/.333/.444 in September, perhaps enticing some fantasy owners to think that the league caught up with him. However, the numbers seem to suggest otherwise.
His BABIP declined dramatically month-to-month (.405 vs. .283), and his true talent level is almost certainly in between them. Furthermore, his plate discipline metrics actually improved in September. His strikeout rate dropped from a 27% K% in August to a 20.8% K% in September, while his walk-rate doubled from 4.8% to 9.7%. Bichette's 12.5 SwStr% was about average and his 38.6% chase-rate was a little high but Bichette had good plate discipline numbers on the farm, so growth seems logical as he gets more accustomed to big-league pitching.
Bichette's .368 BABIP may look fluky, but he seems to have the skills to consistently beat a .300 BABIP. He can run - as his 28.4 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed attests - and his 87.8 mph average exit velocity on grounders was above average, making it likely that he can outperform the .266 BABIP he had on groundballs last year. Bichette's 22.6 LD% is also within the realm of repeatability, even if his .818 BABIP is likely to regress some. And while his .273 xBA doesn't look great, this metric may not always properly account for players with speed like Bichette's.
Bichette's 33.6 FB% at the big league level was also low enough to support higher BABIP marks, though it would be nice if he could cut down his 10.2 IFFB%. Unfortunately, Bichette's 22.4% HR/FB wasn't supported by his Statcast contact quality metrics. His 92.9 mph average airborne exit velocity was roughly average, as was his overall 89.6 mph EV, while his 8.8% Brls/BBE and 6.1% rate of Brls/PA tell a similar story. Another mark against his power was a .472 xSLG that was nearly 100 points shy of his actual mark, suggesting that his power numbers could fall off considerably.
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Toronto is a great place to hit homers and Bichette's 22.4 Pull% on fly balls should help him make the most of his limited power, but owners should expect a 15-20 HR pace rather than the 30+ HR that his prorated 2019 statistics suggested. That's fine for fantasy purposes if Bichette goes back to stealing as he did in the minors, but may not be enough to justify his draft day cost otherwise.
After averaging about a 75% SB success rate on the farm, Bichette was caught in half of his steal attempts with the Blue Jays last year. We know that he understands how to steal a bag from his minor league statistics, and there's nothing wrong with his raw speed. The Depth Charts projections at Fangraphs seem to agree, pacing Bichette for 27 SB in a full season.
Roster Resource projects Bichette to bat leadoff in 2020, hitting in front of Cavan Biggio and Vladito, both of whom have patient approaches that should give Bichette plenty of time to figure out opposing batteries. The leadoff role should also allow him to pile up runs scored while contributing in average and power, making Bichette a solid fantasy asset in every category except RBI.
Conclusion
If you already have Trea Turner or Jonathan Villar on your roster, you probably don't need to select Bichette at his current price. However, if you emphasized power and pitching early, you may find yourself lacking for many other choices for speed. Bichette's ADP is in the same range as one-dimensional sluggers like Matt Olson (61.6 ADP), Paul Goldschmidt (67.4), and Joey Gallo (72.6). The nearest speed guy is outfielder Victor Robles (77.4), so Bichette is will likely be one of your last chances to get steals without hurting yourself in other categories. To me, that makes him well worth his current price tag.
Verdict: Champ (based on likelihood steals come back and positive contributions everywhere else)
