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With saves+holds becoming a more popular fantasy baseball category, Mike Schwarzenbach takes a look at some relievers who you should target in fantasy drafts this season to boost the HLD category.
Hold on... there are fantasy leagues that reward middle relievers, not just starters and closers? Yes, there are, and leagues that reward holds are one of the fastest-growing segments of fantasy baseball as real baseball continues to diminish the role of the starter in favor of building deep bullpens with multiple relievers that throw 95+ MPH.
For context, the Mets lead the Majors last season with 941.1 innings thrown by their starters. That number would have placed them 26th in 2010. In fact, no team has had their starters throw a combined 1,000 innings since 2015 as teams seem to be all in on the idea of building their roster with flame-throwing relievers.
So how should you build your fantasy roster if you play in a league that counts holds? First of all, it's important to know the format. Nick Anderson dominated last season and would've been in line for a ton of holds. However, the Rays trade of Emilio Pagan to San Diego likely means Anderson will get saves and holds giving him a ton of value in a SV+HLD league. Here, we'll focus on the guys getting the lead to the ninth inning.
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Ryan Pressly (RHP, Houston Astros)
Where better to begin with one of the three players who tied for the MLB holds lead in 2019. Pressly was in the perfect situation for holds last season and racked up 31 of them pitching for a first-place team with a well-established closer. Houston figures to be good again this season and Roberto Osuna has a firm grasp on the ninth inning so expect Pressly to be among the league-leaders again. Pressly will also contribute to your fantasy team in other ways. He put up a 0.90 WHIP last season and struck out 72 batters in 54.2 innings thanks to a 34.7% strikeout rate.
Adam Ottavino (RHP, New York Yankees)
The former Colorado Rockie had a great first year in the Bronx pitching to a 1.90 ERA while racking up 28 holds. Like Pressly, Ottavino should also rack up a ton of K's as his strikeout rate has been above 30 percent two straight seasons.
Ottavino does walk too many batters, never a good thing in relief, but made up for it by keeping the ball in the yard only allowing 0.68 HR/9, which was 17th among all qualified relievers. His 83 holds since 2017 leads all relievers in that span and the Yankees will have plenty of late leads to protect.
Will Smith (LHP, Braves)
Smith had another productive season with the Giants last year saving 34 games with a 2.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He signed with Atlanta in November and the Braves, despite targeting Smith in free agency, said Mark Melancon will get the first chance to close meaning Smith should be the primary eighth-inning man for a projected playoff team.
The left-hander has been one of the most consistent relievers in the game putting up at least 10.71 K/9 every year since his rookie year in 2012. Smith's 88.7 percent strand-rate is likely unsustainable, his career mark is 74.1, but he should still rack up a ton of holds while putting up a sub-3.00 ERA and a WHIP near one.
Giovanny Gallegos (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)
Gallegos came out of nowhere last season for the Cardinals, racking up 19 holds while establishing himself as one of their go-to relievers down the stretch. Gallegos pitched to a 2.31 ERA and a pristine 0.81 WHIP, which tied for the MLB lead with Josh Hader and Yusmeiro Petit.
Gallegos doesn't lack in the strikeout department either, he posted a 33 percent strikeout rate last season thanks to a 16.4 percent swinging-strike rate that ranked 16th in the Majors. A 47.3 percent fly-ball rate is a bit of a red flag as some bad home run luck can ruin a reliever's numbers in a small sample size. But the more likely outcome for Gallegos not putting up a healthy holds total would be him taking over the closer's role and getting saves.
Craig Stammen (RHP, San Diego Padres)
Stammen tied for the MLB holds lead last year with 31 and is a good pick for more holds again this year setting up Kirby Yates. Stammen won't match other top relievers in other categories, however. He averaged less than a strikeout per inning in two of the last three years and has never put up a full season with a strikeout rate over 30 percent.
A 31.7 percent hard contact rate helps keep his ratios down, as does an elite 50.8 percent ground ball rate thanks to a sinker that batters hit just .226 against last year. Lack of strikeout upside limits his fantasy ceiling, but if it's holds you want, Stammen is as safe a bet as there is.
Luke Jackson (RHP, Atlanta Braves)
Jackson saved 18 games for Atlanta last season but will likely be behind Smith and Melancon in the closer pecking order this year. He pitched better than his numbers as his 2.52 xFIP was much better than his 3.84 ERA which tends to happen to relievers given their season is inherently a small sample size. Jackson was cursed with a 25.6% HR/FB rate in that small sample making his numbers look worse than he pitched.
Jackson is a classic fastball/slider reliever who racks up a ton of strikeouts, 106 in 72.2 innings last year, but has the elite ground ball rate of a sinkerballer. The only downside was his 1.40 WHIP, which is actually lower than his career mark, despite cutting his walk rate three percent from 2018.
Seth Lugo (RHP, New York Mets)
Lugo has the exact make up you'd want from a late-inning reliever boasting a 33.1 percent strikeout rate with a low 5.1 percent walk rate. He was one of just seven true relievers (i.e. not starters who pitch behind an opener) to hit the century mark in K's with 104 to go with a sub-one WHIP.
Statcast loves him as well as he finished in the top five percent of the league in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and xWOBA on contact. Newly signed Dellin Betances shouldn't pry the eighth inning role away from Lugo who should get plenty of holds setting up Edwin Diaz.
Tommy Kahnle (RHP, New York Yankees)
Of all the players on this list, Kahnle is the least likely to wind up in a closer's role making him a solid bet to match or exceed last season's 27 holds. Kahnle sports a 35.5 percent strikeout rate and allowed just a .199 batting average against that was backed up by a .201 xBA according to Statcast.
He is an elite bat misser with a 17.9 percent swinging-strike rate and when batters do make contact the ball is on the ground over 50 percent of the time. Don't judge him based on his 3.67 ERA, his xFIP and SIERA were both under 2.80.
James Karinchak (RHP, Cleveland Indians)
Karinchak only has 5.1 innings of MLB experience as a September call up last year, but the big right-hander put up video game numbers throughout his rapid ascent through the Indians' farm system. Last season, Karinchak struck out 24 batters in 10 innings of Double-A ball before whiffing 42 out of 78 total batters faced in Triple-A.
Karinchak has an 80-grade fastball according to the scouts and should find himself pitching in high-leverage situations in Cleveland for most of the season. Karinchak is a sleeper to know this season, read more about the hard-throwing Cleveland prospect here.
