Dynasty Outlook - Josh Gordon

October 9, 2018

New England Patriots WR Josh Gordon is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football, especially in dynasty leagues. Aaron Schillinger assesses his dynasty value midway through the 2018 NFL season now that he is with a new team.

Dynasty football is a game that many owners, including myself, treat like the stock market. You buy low, you sell high, and sometimes you're just better off holding onto a player.

Throughout the years, there have been many players whose value rises and falls in drastic measures at times. Perhaps one of the most polarizing 'roller coaster' type of players in dynasty football, is none other than the newest member of the New England Patriots, Josh Gordon.

Many NFL fans seemed to absolutely hate that the Patriots just landed one of the most talented wide receivers out there. It only makes sense, that after spending all this time in Cleveland, he lands with future HOF quarterback Tom Brady and the Patriots. For fantasy purposes, this is a very intriguing fit and has owners tilting all over the place. How should you approach Gordon now if you've been holding patiently, or wondering whether there is still a buy-low window on this tantalizing talent?

Pros

The first and most obvious factor to take into account when valuing Gordon moving forward is that he sees a massive upgrade at quarterback. Despite Tom Brady's somewhat underwhelming performance (for fantasy purposes) so far in 2018, there is no denying this upgrade. As a Gordon owner, you can't really ask for much more than to have Brady throwing him the ball. Aaron Rodgers? Maybe. Regardless, the point is that this upgrade at quarterback is huge for Gordon's fantasy value.

Another factor that needs to be accounted for is the potential role that Gordon could have in New England. It is no secret that Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski are extremely safe options for Brady. Opposing defenses cannot ignore either of these two guys, then you throw in Gordon on the outside playing that X role? This offers some serious problems for opposing defensive backs. This is exactly what Gordon offers the Patriots that they've been lacking. That big, athletic target, who Brady can throw it up to and let Gordon use his athleticism to come down with it. The touchdown he scored against the Colts was just that and was exactly what owners needed to justify starting him last week.

Cons

The first point that I'll make is the most obvious and biggest red flag to anyone that owns Gordon. The suspensions, off-field issues, and obvious mental health circumstances that Josh Gordon deals with. I wish my best to him throughout all his recovery and his health, but for dynasty owners, it's absolutely a factor. Simply put, he's one mess-up away from losing all his dynasty value, and ultimately, his career in the NFL. One of the main reasons this still bothers me so much is the recent news coming out about why the Browns traded him.

Another factor that needs to be considered when valuing Gordon is the new offense he's being thrown into. The Patriots offense is notorious for being a tough one for players to grasp. Obviously, some players haven't had any issues picking up on the offense, but there's also the players like Chad Ochocinco who simply couldn't get the playbook down. Obviously, there are many factors that go into learning an offense, but the bottom line here is that it matters. Jumping into this offense during the season without having time to learn the playbook could hinder the immediate production we see from Gordon. However, if the Patriots are just going to give him a limited number of snaps and throw deep balls up for him to make plays on, we could see him make a living from the type of role. Regardless of what the Patriots' plans for him moving forward are, learning this new offense, isn't something I'm excited about when evaluating Gordon by any means.

Since leading the league in receiving in 2013, Gordon has played in just 11 games in the NFL. Throw in his debut against the Colts, and you're looking at playing just 12 games in the last five years. Speaking of which, he did have a nice first game on paper, but he wasn't heavily involved in the offense. He finished the game with two receptions on four targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. I sat Gordon anywhere I owned him last week, and if anyone asked me on Twitter, I told them to sit him. His day was saved for those of you who were bold enough to start him, by that touchdown thrown late in the game to him. On the other hand, the volume was far from ideal, which is much more reliable for fantasy purposes than touchdowns are. I don't expect him to see consistent value with the Patriots, yet at least.

Gordon saw just 18 snaps in his debut against the Colts, which was good for 22% of their offensive snaps. Despite putting up decent fantasy numbers, I still believe he belongs on your bench until he proves to be utilized more. Gordon isn't a bad WR3/Flex option in deeper leagues, but I'd avoid if possible for the time being.

Dynasty Value

The main reason you probably read this article is to find out what to do with Gordon in your dynasty leagues. My suggestion is pretty simple. Take advantage of this current spike in Gordon's value, and sell him high. As stated above, Gordon's value has been a major roller coaster of the years, and this is damn near the most valuable he's been since his elite 2013 season. Since we don't have a great idea of where his ADP is or where he ranks, your best bet is to get a feel of how your league mates feel about Gordon and send offers accordingly. Whether you're rebuilding or playing to win now, I'd take advantage of the current price tag he's got, and sell him while you can.

If you have specific questions regarding Josh Gordon trades, send me a tweet @FFD260 and I'd be happy to help walk you through your trades.