RADIO
Fantasy football risers and fallers for dynasty leagues. Kyle Richardson looks for players trending up or down in dynasty value for Week 8 of the NFL season.
I took the time to talk about some of my opinions that I have missed on this year in my last article. An offer to my followers to show you I can admit when I am wrong. I do that as a sign of trust. If you know I am willing to admit my mistakes, you know I won’t let my ego stand in the way of changing my opinion, meaning you will always get my best advice.
With that being said, this week is all about celebrating the right calls! For as wrong as I have been on some players, I have made the correct call on other players *Cough* *Kareem Hunt* *Cough*. Three of the four listed in this article are ones I took some heat over this off-season, but as we head into Week 8, it’s safe to say they are headed in the direction I anticipated.
It’s time to start buying or selling because these players are #TrendingNow.
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#TrendingUp
Marvin Jones (WR, DET)
Marvin Jones was a favorite of mine heading into the 2016 season. After a huge Week 3 performance against the Packers that saw Jones haul in six of eight targets for 205 yards and two touchdowns, I thought I had hit the nail on the head. I even made a couple of moves to grab him in my leagues. It quickly went downhill after that as Jones was not able to register another 100-yard game the rest of the season. Heading into 2017, the chemistry between Matt Stafford was noticeably better in camp and the preseason. Sometimes it can take a while for a new receiver to build confidence with his QB and offense. His numbers don’t jump off the page this season, but he is included in this section due to an injury to Golden Tate. It sounds like Tate could be missing the next few weeks and with Kenny Golladay also nursing a sore hamstring, Stafford isn’t going to have many targets to throw at. The Lions have to face the number one pass defense of Pittsburgh this week, but then they will have good match-ups against Green Bay (16) and Cleveland (15). From a dynasty stand point, Jones is still young and in a Lions offense that continues to throw the ball after falling behind. Detroit is only middle of the road, ranking 16th in pass attempts per game but fantasy points in Detroit can build up in a hurry though as they play catch-up and defenses ease up in the second half. Don’t try and add Jones to be your WR1 or WR2, but you can try and add him to fill in as a WR3. Like most teams right now, you are probably dealing with injuries. If the owner of Jones has fallen out of contention, you may be able to get him at a discount.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
I don’t know what it is about Ohio, but NFL teams just refuse to hand the ball off this year. I’ve aired my grievances with Hue Jackson and his use of Isaiah Crowell this year, but now I’m going to turn on Marvin Lewis. In Week 7 against Pittsburgh, Mixon only received seven carries but averaged 6.86 yards per carry. The game wasn’t a blowout, but Lewis refused to let the offense run through Mixon and instead let Andy Dalton implode on himself again. Yes, you can argue that Mixon hasn’t been great this year, but I am blaming this on his usage and game planning by coaches. A good coaching staff knows how to get their best players the ball and put their teams in a position to win. The Cincinnati offensive line hasn’t been good this year and I expect them to address that next off-season. He is going to get better. He will be better in 2017 and even better than that in 2018 and beyond. The biggest thing I saw from Mixon last week, was excellent vision, letting the play develop in front of him and not hitting the hole before it opened. Mixon had some interesting comments after the game and compared himself to Le’Veon Bell. I’m not going to argue with him, because I saw some similarities. Since Week 3, Mixon has averaged 30.75 snaps a game compared to 19.75 for Gio Bernard and 11.25 for Hill. The workload is going to be there and the results will be coming. You may be able to find a Mixon owner looking for a more established back or one who has given up on him. If you can, move now before it’s too late.
#TrendingDown
Demaryius Thomas (WR, DEN)
In the past two weeks, Denver fans have gone from “We’re going to win the Super Bowl!” to “Get rid of Siemian! Fire the whole coaching staff!” It’s been a tough couple of weeks after losing to the Giants at home on Sunday Night Football and then being shut out by the Chargers. Trevor Siemian has not looked good the past couple of weeks, but it’s not completely his fault either. The offensive line has been subpar at best and they haven’t been able to get the run game going. If you want to use Siemian as a QB who will control the game, not lose anything but not win you anything either, I can buy into that. I cannot buy into him being a QB that has to throw the ball 85 times in two games. He’s not good enough to win games through the air every week. If the Broncos feel they need to make a change at QB, they have to go with Brock Osweiler or Paxton Lynch. Neither of those guys are going to win you games either. This is exactly why I wouldn’t buy into Demaryius Thomas as even a WR2 coming into the season. If you want him as a WR3 or even a flex option, sure, have at it. Most people were buying much higher than that though. Let’s take a moment to play one of my favorite games, Player A vs. Player B. Take a stab at who you think each player is:
Player A: 3 catches per game, 47 yards per game, 2 touchdowns for the year
Player B: 5 catches per game, 64 yards per game, 0 touchdowns for the year
Both are relativity close, only separated by two catches and 17 yards per game. If you are playing PPR formats, that is an extra three points a game, but player A makes up for that with two more touchdowns. If you haven’t guessed it yet, player B is Thomas and player A is………Robby Anderson! Go ahead, take a second to recoup after I blew your mind. According to Fantasydata.com, Thomas is the WR37 and Anderson is the WR38 in PPR formats. Thomas is only a WR3 with high WR2 upside against a good match-up. In the short term, Emmanuel Sanders missing hurts Thomas more than helping him. Sanders could help keep double teams off Thomas and the Broncos don't have another receiver to do that. If you own Thomas in a dynasty format, wait for him to string together a couple of good games and then sell. I have no shares of Thomas on my teams and will leave it that way unless someone gives him to me cheap.
Marshawn Lynch (RB, OAK)
I told owners over and over this off-season, do not fall into the trap of Marshawn Lynch. It was apparent that some had fallen into a trance, remembering the Lynch of old…..or should I say young? Between 2011 and 2014 Lynch averaged 4.5 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns a season. Owners draft Lynch hoping he provide numbers closer to that, then the 3.8 yards per carry in 2015, his final with Seattle. I don’t know about some, but I’m weary of a 31-year-old running back, who just took a year off and was plague by injuries and ineffective play in his final season. He was an attractive pick due to Oakland’s great offensive line play in 2016 and the weapons around him. Lynch’s poor play this season was highlighted by running onto the field after a play last week against Kansas City to settle down Marcus Peters and teammates. That turned out to be a bad decision as he is now suspended for Week 8 and won’t have a chance to play his former team, the Buffalo Bills. For this week, that may have been a blessing in disguise as Buffalo has a pretty strong run defense. In dynasty formats though, Lynch isn’t worth owning, other than depth. If you own him, start looking at owners who are competing for a championship this year but are having issues with injuries at running back. Let them worry about his 3.7 yards per carry, diminishing skills and most importantly, poor attitude.
