X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Fantasy Spin - Ezekiel Elliott's Suspension

Feel those shock waves? That's the fallout from the announcement that Ezekiel Elliott will be suspended the first six games of the 2017 season, stemming from allegations of domestic violence that occurred before his rookie season. Fantasy football owners who just burned their third overall pick on Elliott are undoubtedly kicking themselves (and the TV) for drafting this early.

Elliott will appeal, but it's highly likely the suspension will stick. There's obviously no way to replace an average of over 100 yards and one TD per game on 5.1 Y/A. So what happens now?

Let's look at all the ramifications, from where Elliott's ADP now falls to who stands to benefit from this surprising outcome.

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code NEW! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Who Will Carry the Weight in Dallas?

There's little need to explain the significance of this loss to the Cowboys and fantasy owners alike. In his rookie season, Elliott led the league in rushing yards (1,621), rush attempts (322), and yards per game (108.7). He scored 15 times in 15 games and was a true bell-cow in every sense of the word. His lesser production in the receiving department puts him just behind David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell in nearly all fantasy rankings, but it would be rare to find a re-draft league in which Elliott wasn't a top-three pick. Is there any way the Cowboys can replace that type of production with what's currently on the roster? In a word, no.

In 2016, veteran Alfred Morris served as a steady, if uninspiring backup, picking up 243 yards and a pair of TD on a paltry 3.5 yards per carry average. He contributed almost nothing as a pass-catcher either. His advantages: he's a solid pass protector, doesn't fumble (not even one in 2016), and looked good in the Cowboys' preseason opener. Odds are he will be the main back for the season opener, but that may not mean a whole lot. Morris seemed to be on the bubble to even make the roster at one point, but he's looked strong in training camp and is the most reliable runner they have at the moment.

Remember Darren McFadden? Oh he's still around. But he hardly played at all in 2016 before needing elbow surgery, and he's not likely to get much burn in the pre-season as they try to keep him healthy. You may not recall, but he actually managed over 1,000 yards on a healthy 4.6 YPC average starting 10 games for Dallas in 2015. If healthy (and not too rusty), he brings a lot more to the table than Morris as a runner and could eventually supplant Morris as the starter.

Then there's FB/RB hybrid Rod Smith. Smith is a big back from Ohio State that's been with the team for a few years. He's powerful and has impressed in the preseason, but offers little more than the prospect of a bulldozer who can drag guys for a couple yards in a cloud of dust. He was rumored to be the favorite to back up Zeke for a while during camp, but that moment may have passed.

Then finally there's Ronnie Hillman, who the Cowboys brought in to be the third-down back, replacing Lance Dunbar. Hillman is a dark horse, as he did respectably well as an every-down back for a short stint in Denver in 2015 after a rash of injuries gutted the depth chart. He's a longshot to be named the starter at any point, however. He was uninspiring in Minnesota last year before moving on to San Diego and doing even less, averaging 3.2 yards per rush attempt.

Bottom Line: The most likely scenario is that Morris is named the "starter," but only in a scenario where the dreaded committee approach is utilized, with Morris, McFadden, and Hillman splitting carries. Worse yet, until Elliott returns, Jason Garrett could opt to use Smith on the goal line, vulturing scores from whomever gets the bulk of the work. If you own Elliott, try to acquire Morris and/or McFadden ASAP and be ready to pony up the early FAAB. Just don't expect much and get ready to tear your hair out as the three or four understudies split carries until one gets a hot hand. Keep an eye out for current free agents like Rashad Jennings or DeAngelo Williams, who could be brought in to stabilize the position. They may be worth a flier in MFL10s or deep leagues.

 

The Impact on Dak

Maybe you're saying: "Well hey, this is fine by me. I own Dak, not Zeke." One thing the Elliott suspension likely means is that Dak Prescott's value as a passer and goal-line runner have increased for the first six games of the season. He ran for six TD last season and may be apt to try to run some more in himself, or have a few more designed runs or run/pass options called for him near the goal line in Zeke's absence. It's also inevitable that the breakdown of run/pass calls overall will skew to rely on Prescott's arm/legs more. If your league hasn't drafted yet, I wouldn't necessarily vault him way up your draft board to a QB1 because of this, but if you had him even with another QB, this may warrant nudging him up a spot or two.

 

Where to Pick Elliott Now

With nearly half of the fantasy season lost, Elliott is certainly not worth a first-round pick from here on out. Where his value lies certainly depends on the format and your leaguemates' respective opinions of him. With a three-game suspension to start 2016, Le'Veon Bell was still taken in the early second round on average and delivered amazing production the rest of the way, making him one of the best bargains of the draft season. Elliott's suspension is double that, however, so perhaps he's best left to the end of the second or early third round unless you believe that in 10 games he will find a way to outproduce players like Leonard Fournette or Todd Gurley. Many believe that Elliott was due for a slight decrease in production anyway, but any way you slice it, he is no longer an elite fantasy option for redraft leagues and can be considered a classic risk-reward pick.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pavel Dorofeyev

Out On Thursday
Tyler Fitzgerald

Giants Place Tyler Fitzgerald On 10-Day Injured List With Rib Fracture
Jason Robertson

Upgraded To Day-To-Day
Miro Heiskanen

Ruled Out For Game 6
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Add Collin Johnson To Wide Receiver Room
Chicago Bears

Colston Loveland A "Natural Fit" In Ben Johnson's Offense
Salvador Perez

Leaves Early On Thursday With Hip Soreness
Cincinnati Bengals

Samaje Perine Expected To Have A Passing-Down Role
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Expected To Move On From Jalen Ramsey Soon
Shota Imanaga

Expected To Make His Next Start
Tennessee Titans

Chimere Dike Has "Flexibility" To Play All Wide Receiver Positions
Justin Martinez

Diamondbacks Place Justin Martinez On 15-Day Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation
Kyle Higashioka

Placed On 10-Day Injured List
Corey Seager

Targeting Saturday Return
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Exercise Charles Cross' Fifth-Year Option
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Decline Kenyon Green's Fifth-Year Option
Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Not Picking Up Devin Lloyd's Fifth-Year Option
New York Giants

Jaxson Dart Expected To Sit And Learn In 2025
Arizona Cardinals

Jonathan Gannon Excited For Marvin Harrison Jr.'s Second Season
Alexis Díaz

Alexis Diaz Optioned To Triple-A
Amen Thompson

Fills Stat Sheet In Game 5 Victory
Stephen Curry

Held To 13 Points Wednesday Night
Anthony Edwards

Struggles To Score In Series-Clincher
Rudy Gobert

Comes Up Big In Game 5 Victory
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Battles Back Issue In Game 5 Loss
LeBron James

Undecided On Future
Derrick Jones Jr.

Fine For Thursday
Filip Gustavsson

On Track To Play Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Caps Off First Round With Multi-Point Effort
Eetu Luostarinen

Explodes For Four Points In Series-Clincher
Dylan Strome

Extends Point Streak With Two Assists
Alex Ovechkin

Pots 30th Playoff Power-Play Goal
Kyle Connor

Ties Jets Record With Fourth Three-Point Playoff Game
Mark Scheifele

Injured In Game 5
New York Giants

Evan Neal Moving To Offensive Guard
Chris Sale

Strikes Out 10
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Waive Malik Davis
Houston Texans

John Metchie III Could Be Odd-Man Out
Masyn Winn

Homers Twice In Game 1 Of Doubleheader
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Release Anthony Firkser
New England Patriots

Patriots Not Picking Up Cole Strange's Fifth-Year Option
Justin Martinez

Could Land On Injured List
Tommy Edman

Dealing With Ankle Injury
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez To Make Season Debut On Sunday
Kyle Stowers

Blasts Two Homers
Maxi Kleber

Available For Lakers Debut Wednesday
Buffalo Bills

Elijah Moore Signs With Bills On One-Year Deal
Mike Trout

Pulled As Precaution Due To Knee Soreness
Dylan Moore

Expected To Return From Injured List After Minimum Stay
Jonathan Kuminga

Out With An Illness
Max Scherzer

Completes Another Successful Bullpen Session
Jimmy Butler III

Ready To Play Wednesday
Jared Jones

Begins Throwing Progression
Isaiah Stewart

In Danger Of Missing Another Game Thursday
Alex Iafallo

Drops To Second Line Wednesday
Pavel Dorofeyev

To Be A Game-Time Call Thursday
Tyler Tucker

Ruled Out For Game 5
Chase Dollander

Leaves Early On Wednesday With Blister Issue
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Build Off Last Week's Runner-Up Finish
Sam Montembeault

Remains Out For Game 5
Aliaksei Protas

Likely To Return Wednesday
Gary Woodland

Could See Success At CJ CUP
Alexandre Carrier

A Game-Time Call Wednesday
Patrik Laine

Out On Wednesday
Cam Davis

Making First Appearance At TPC Craig Ranch
Lance McCullers Jr.

To Make Season Debut On Sunday Against White Sox
Griffin Conine

Expected To Miss Rest Of The Season
Bryce Miller

Battles Through Back Injury On Tuesday
Green Bay Packers

Devonte Wyatt's Fifth-Year Option Exercised By Packers
New York Jets

Quarterback Jordan Travis Retires From Football
Pittsburgh Steelers

Montravius Adams Released By Steelers
Sam Burns

Could Be Due For A Great Week At TPC Craig Ranch
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Picking Up Fifth-Year Option On Jordan Davis
Minnesota Vikings

Myles Price Lands With Vikings As UDFA
Patrick Rodgers

A Solid Value Play At TPC Craig Ranch
Jamal Murray

Explodes For 43 Points In Game 5
Carson Young

Looking To Recapture Form At CJ Cup
Jayson Tatum

Fires In 35 Points In Series-Clincher
Matt McCarty

An Intriguing Value Play At CJ Cup
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Logs Massive Triple-Double In Game 5
Maxi Kleber

Listed As Questionable For Game 5
Will Zalatoris

Searching For Putting Form At CJ Cup
Rob Dillingham

Out On Wednesday
Jae'Sean Tate

Still Out On Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Listed As Probable For Wednesday
Jack Eichel

Notches Two Assists In Game 5 Victory
Sam Stevens

A Risky Play With Upside At CJ Cup
PGA

Sungjae Im Riding Momentum Into CJ Cup
Sebastian Aho

Sends Hurricanes To Round 2
Ben Griffin

Looking To Stay Hot After First Career Win
Jake Knapp

Looking For More Success At TPC Craig Ranch
Linus Ullmark

Records Shutout In Elimination Game
Brady Tkachuk

Extends Point Streak To Four Games
Mackenzie Hughes

Is An Interesting Option At CJ Cup
Aldrich Potgieter

Trending Downward For CJ Cup
Taylor Pendrith

Plays Well In Houston Recently
PGA

Niklas Norgaard May Not Be Cut Out For Texas
Rasmus Hojgaard

Could Be Up Or Down In Texas
Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59th At Corales Puntacana Championship
Aaron Nesmith

Upgraded To Available
Bennedict Mathurin

Cleared For Game 5
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Records Third Consecutive Double-Double
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF