RADIO
The 2016 season is finally underway. This piece would have been published last week, but technical problems led to delay. Here the final set of bold predictions for the new fantasy season.
Bold Predictions for 2016
1. Jake Arrieta finishes outside the top 20 starting pitchers
There’s a good chance I’m very wrong here. It’s definitely possible that Arrieta simply hit his stride later than most, and is going to continue his reign of dominance for years. And unlike the rest of my predictions, I really have no numbers to back up my claim, at least in terms of the last two seasons. All of his peripherals back up his breakout 2014 and 2015 seasons. Upon joining the Cubs, he stopped throwing his slider (-5.8 runs above average in 2012) and began working in a nasty cutter (23.5 runs above average in 2015). This has allowed all of his other pitches — fastball, curveball, changeup — to become more effective. His GB/FB has risen from 1.18 in 2013 to 2.47 in 2015, and his Hard% has dropped from 28% to 22.1%. So, what’s the problem? I just don’t buy it. Now, to be clear, I do buy that he worked on his mechanics, improved his arsenal and came out a better pitcher. Just not one of the consistently elite pitchers in the game.
In 2015, he entered the All-Star break with a 2.66 ERA— very good, but not jaw-dropping. The second half? A 0.75 ERA in 107.1 IP over 15 starts. Of those 15 starts? Three against the Brewers, two against the Phillies, two against the Braves. Maybe I am stretching to find something to use against him, but the fact is that over that span, he didn’t face a single team in the top 10 in runs scored on the year. In fact, he only faced one of those ten teams three times all year— at Arizona (6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 7 K), vs. Kansas City (7 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 5 K), at Washington (6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 8 K). He struggled in the postseason, allowing four runs in each of his final two starts, failing to go six innings in either outing. So I say there is a chance he regresses a bit, most notably regarding his 80% LOB% and .246 BABIP, and opposing teams begin to figure him out. An ERA around 3.00 with 200 strikeouts is reasonable, and if certain young pitchers break out this season — Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco, for example — that stat line could land him outside the top 20. My actual rankings have him 12th among starting pitchers, but if I’m being bold, it wouldn’t shock me to see him fall into the SP3 realm in fantasy.
2/3. Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg finish as the No. 2 and 3 starting pitchers, respectively
You have to assume Clayton Kershaw holds the top spot. He finished second in fantasy points last year, behind just Arrieta in his never-going-to-happen-again season. There was an enormous gap between the top three (Arrieta, Kershaw, Greinke) and the rest of the pack, but I would think there is a little more parity this year. Harvey and Strasburg are the two with the ability to join Kershaw in elite status this year. Both were seen as phenoms coming up, but have battled injuries and have taken longer than expected to reach full potential. I believe this is the year.
Harvey was spectacular in his first full season in 2013 — 2.27 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 6.16 K/BB, 1.47 GB/FB — earning an appearance in the All-Star game and Cy Young consideration, but missed all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was very good in 2015 — 2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 5.08 K/BB, 1.27 GB/FB — but the eye test suggested he wasn’t quite right following the surgery. This spring, Harvey’s 90 mph slider is said to be back to top form, giving him a dangerous, more complete arsenal. A fully healthy Harvey can do some serious damage against a pretty shallow pool of NL East hitters.
Strasburg turned heads in his first stint in the majors, managing a 2.91 ERA over 68 innings in 2010, but underwent his own Tommy John surgery and missed just about all of 2011. Since then, he has maintained an ERA between 3.00 and 3.50 in each season, but has yet to transform into the dominant ace many believed he would be. Strasburg struggled mightily for most of 2015 -- his ERA stood at 6.55 through 10 starts -- but he found his form late in the season. Upon his return from injury on August 8, he held a 1.91 ERA over 66.1 innings, striking out 92 batters in the process. Still only 27, Strasburg could very well be coming into his own, and fantasy owners who are willing to reach for the former No. 1 overall draft pick will reap the benefits.
4. Marcus Stroman is a top-three AL starting pitcher
Stroman is a common sleeper pick in fantasy leagues this year, so much so that he can almost no longer be considered a sleeper. Still, he is not being drafted as an elite arm, and while I have him ranked as my No. 20 starting pitcher, behind Corey Kluber, Chris Archer and Sonny Gray, I think top three among American Leaguers is reasonable.
Stroman’s 20.8% K% in 2014 was only average, but given his low walk rate and his swing-and-miss stuff, he can develop into a dominant strikeout threat. His 53.8% GB% was among the best in baseball, as were his 12.8 fastball runs above average. He didn’t have as much success with his slider and cutter in his rookie season, but they both project to be above-average pitches.
The soon-to-be 25-year-old is coming off an injury, but an ACL tear shouldn’t affect his pitching going forward— and it didn’t down the stretch in 2015, as he allowed just five earned runs in 27 IP over four starts. With the National League holding the large majority of the top-tier pitchers, Stroman can emerge as one of the American League’s elite, alongside Chris Sale and David Price.
5. Christian Yelich will outperform Charlie Blackmon
On Rotoballer’s outfield rankings, Blackmon is No. 13, while Yelich is down at No. 29. The only reason it’s even that close is because I have Blackmon at 19 and Yelich at 21. The next worst ranking for Blackmon is 15, and the next best ranking for Yelich is 27. Honestly, I only had Yelich outside the top 20 because it can be risky to draft him as a top-20 OF.
The Marlins’ left fielder posted just seven homers and 16 stolen bases last year, but he did manage a .300/.366/.416 slash line. He also lowered his strikeout rate (19.2%), pulled the ball more (31.7%) and hit more line drives (22.5%). While he hasn’t quite lived up to the 20/30 potential he displayed in the minors, I am convinced that that star-power is still there. He might not tap into 20-HR power just yet, but 15 is reasonable for a guy who is still developing physically and plays in a park where the fences were just moved in and lowered. He hit .342/.392/.473 over the second half of the season, and could continue that pace to begin 2016. Yelich will be just 24 this season, and could finally realize his full potential while spending a full season batting in front of slugger Giancarlo Stanton. Not only will Yelich score a ton of runs in that spot, but he should also see good pitches on a regular basis. A line of 15/25/.320 is feasible for the young outfielder.
Blackmon had his best season in 2015, managing 17 HR, 43 SB and a .287/.347/.450 slash line. However, like many Rockies hitters, his home/away splits were disgusting. He hit .331/.390/.500 with seven homers at home, and .238/.300/.395 with 10 HR on the road. The Rockies have raised the outfield fences at Coors Field, and while this won’t negate the thin air, it will likely compromise some of the advantages of Rockies hitters playing 81 games at Coors. Even if the higher fences do affect his home run total and his splits remain brutal, he should still hit 15 HR with a .285 AVG. However, the 43 SB he posted last year are unlikely to be replicated. In the minors, he only eclipsed 20 SB once, and that was in 2009— when Blackmon was 22 years old. It doesn’t make sense that a 28-year-old Blackmon would swipe 43 bags. I full expect that number to drop back into the 20s, and a 15/25/.285 stat line does not make for an elite outfielder.
6. George Springer is the most valuable of the three Astros
That is, he will end the year with more fantasy points than both Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa (FYI, I expect all three to finish in the top 20). With both Springer and Correa behind him, Altuve might not need to run as much. Plus, he brings very little in the power categories— it’s hard to believe he will replicate the 15 HR he hit last year. Correa, on the other hand, is definitely a five-category contributor, but he can very well endure some second-year growing pains. His counting stats shouldn’t really suffer, but it’s not crazy to think that a 21-year-old could have some ups and downs in his second season. This paves the way for Springer, as long as he remains healthy, to emerge as the top dog. Springer posted 37 HR and 45 SB in 2013, his last full season in the minors, and slashed .303/.411/.600. His strikeout rate dropped from 33.0% in 2014 to 24.2% in 2015, and if he can continue to cut down on his swings and misses, his overall numbers could improve even further. Springer is the consummate, five-category fantasy player, and should perform as such this year. Side note: He’s my AL MVP pick, too.
7. Eric Hosmer finishes as a top-30 player
This might not be so bold, considering he had the 31st most points in Fleaflicker leagues a year ago. Still, it’s bold compared to his ADP of 77. I couldn’t really specify within first basemen, given the incredible talent at the top of the first base pool, but there are so many other players being drafted before Hosmer whom I think he can outperform. This year, Hosmer is Rotoballer's 11th-ranked first baseman, behind Freddie Freeman, Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder. Not only do I think he'll outperform those three, but it wouldn't shock me for Hosmer to post a .310/.370/.470 slash line with 25 HR and 10 SB. That would be a step up across the board from his 2015 totals. Only Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto managed 25/10/.300 last season. Hosmer is just 26 and very capable of improving, and could very well crack the top 30 if he continues to develop.
8. Roberto Osuna finishes as a top-10 reliever
I was surprised there was ever really a competition between Osuna and Drew Storen. Yeah, Storen has experience in the ninth inning, but for a team with the Blue Jays’ offense, there is no way you can pass up on an arm with this much upside. Osuna has exceptional command of three above-average pitches — fastball, slider, changeup — and used his arsenal to strike out batters at a 27.7% clip in his first taste of the big leagues. He tossed 69.2 innings for the Jays in 2015, managing a 2.58 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP and a 4.69 K/BB. Opposing batters hit just .189 off of Osuna, who nailed down 20 of the 22 save opportunities he faced after becoming the closer in late June. Oh yeah, and he was 20 at the time. As long as he’s the closer, his potential fantasy value is through the roof.
9. Devon Travis is the No. 1 second baseman over the second half of the season
Travis broke camp with the Blue Jays in 2015 and hit .304/.361/.498 with eight home runs, three stolen bases, 35 runs batted in and 38 runs scored in just 217 at-bats. Unfortunately for the Jays and for fantasy owners, he was shut down in July with a shoulder injury. Now, just 25 years old, he is expected to miss the first month or so of the season, and his stock has understandably been impacted. Still, Travis is a talented hitter with 15/15 potential to go along with a minor league career .318/.384/.476 slash line. Given his injury status and inexperience, it's hard to imagine him being one of the elite second baseman this year, but he is more than capable of stringing together a dominant second half. To start the season last year, he hit .368/.419/.721 with six homers, 17 R and 19 RBI through 68 AB. All it could take is one injury and one slump from the top-rated second basemen, and Travis could be right up there down the stretch.
10. Stephen Piscotty finishes outside the top 60 outfielders
In a position pool filled with four- or even five-category players, Piscotty just doesn’t do enough. His seven Major League home runs in 256 AB indicate that he can reach 15, but he doesn’t really possess a ton of home-run power. On top of that, he has little-to-no speed, and last year’s 21.9% strikeout is uncharacteristic but still concerning. Yeah, he can hit (.288/.360/.444 minor league career slash line), but his .305 average last year was the highest of his career at any level with at least 100 AB, and his unsustainable .372 BABIP likely means that he will fall below the .300 mark this year. Piscotty is a mature hitter, as well as a solid defender, but in terms of fantasy value, there is not enough there to make him all that appealing.
