Whatever are we going to do with Ian Desmond? Coupled with the fact that we are not even sure what team he will be playing for at the moment, the erratic and streaky play of Desmond at the plate screams uncertainty for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. He has been the longstanding SS of the Washington Nationals and has even found himself in the cleanup role at some points throughout his career. In a lineup that features names like Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, the cleanup role is quite envious.

There are two ways to view Desmond. On one hand, we can look at him as an aging player in a physically demanding position who is starting to decline. Many team officials around MLB share this viewpoint, as he still has not been given a contract and there is virtually no discussion of Desmond in these circles. On the other hand, we can view Desmond as a player who still has a lot to offer but just had an off year and is looking to hit the reset button. I am going be optimistic and go with the latter viewpoint.

By the way, be sure to also see our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, which is already loaded up with lots of great articles. Aside from staff rankings and ADP analysis across all positions, we also dig into MLB prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well.

2015 Year in Review

Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. In the last four seasons (2012-2015), Ian Desmond’s average has plummeted:

Pretty bad, right? In those same years, we see that his K% skyrocketed:

Yuck! Looking at these numbers alone, many fantasy owners would not touch Desmond with a ten foot pole. Looking further into Desmond’s so-called decline, we see that there the problems with average and K% may not be as serious as they seem. In the same years listed above (2012-2015), let’s look at his some of his counting stats that are valuable to us as fantasy owners:

Other than the 2015 season, there really is no correlation between the negative trends in average and K% and the offensive production. The home runs were there, the RBI fluctuated, the runs scored were unaffected. One of the more attractive aspects of Ian Desmond’s skillset, his speed, was on full display as his SB total was stable for the most part.

Of course we cannot ignore the 2015 season, but Desmond has always played through injuries and this may be a sign of his toughness rather than his age. I am willing to write it off as an overall rough season.

2016 Fantasy Outlook

The problems that Desmond had last season are definitely fixable. A full offseason and maybe even a change of scenery could help Desmond get back on track with his plate discipline, hopefully lowering that horrific K%. With less strikeouts and more plate discipline comes a natural increase in average. The adjustments that need to be made in order to restore the status quo with Desmond’s game are not that outlandish and I see him as a player capable of making these adjustments.

Desmond entered the 2015 fantasy season as a guaranteed top 5 selection at SS. He does not enter 2016 in that same standing and after the worst year of his career, fantasy owners are most likely hesitant to draft him. Desmond will most likely slip into the later rounds and at a position that has been so thin over the years, the potential for cost-effectiveness is there. Ian Desmond may not have fit this profile in years past, but 2016 is a new year and he is flying way under the radar.

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