RADIO
Each year, starters emerge from out of the woodwork to put together a phenomenal season. Pitchers like Jake Arrieta and Jacob deGrom who, from out of nowhere, become both the ace of an MLB pitching staff and turned out to be fantasy waiver wire gold. It is not that rare for a pitcher to have a breakout year, where everything goes his way. But the tougher part is repeating.
R.A. Dickey emerged as a storybook pitcher in 2012 winning the CY Young with his knuckleball, but has been unable to repeat since then. In 2011, Daniel Hudson had a great year, and many fans thought he would be ready to become one of baseball’s elites, before injuries halted his progress and prevented him from pitching in more than 10 games since.
Here are five pitchers that I feel are unlikely to repeat their excellent 2014 campaigns:
Edinson Volquez (SP, PIT)
Edinson Volquez spent 2011-2013 among 3 different teams and had difficulty staying on any one roster before being released by the Dodgers. In 2014, the Pirates picked him up and he had a career year. He started in 31 games in 2014, throwing 192.2 innings with a stellar 3.04 ERA in spite of the lowest strikeout rate of his career. But a closer look at his numbers screams one-and-done. His FIP was 4.15, pointing to a likely regression. He also was the benefactor of a very low .263 BABIP that helped reduce the number of hits he gave up. And while his 3.32 BB/9 rate was the lowest of his career, it still isn’t great and his history of control issues indicates a higher walk rate next season.
Henderson Alvarez (SP, MIA)
Henderson Alvarez’s no-hitter against the Detroit Tigers at the end of 2013 set up his eventual breakout in 2014. With a low 2.65 ERA in 187 innings for the Marlins, Alvarez gave Miami fans a taste of what could be to come with him and Fernandez as one of the most formidable one-two punches in baseball. His FIP, however, wasn’t great, sitting at 3.58 on the season. He, unlike Volquez, is unlikely to walk himself into trouble as, in both the Minors and Majors, he has never had a BB/9 higher than 2.59. But he doesn’t strikeout a lot of batters and his SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA that examines batted ball statistics) of 3.70 indicates that his tendency to give up hard contact could hurt him moving forward.
Rick Porcello (SP, BOS)
Porcello’s numbers are essentially a slightly uglier version of Henderson Alvarez’s numbers. His career ERA isn’t great at 4.30, but last year his ERA was a respectable 3.43. He doesn’t strike out many batters, he doesn’t walk many batters, and he doesn’t give up a lot of homeruns. And like Alvarez, last season he really came into his own and pitched well enough to have people talking potential nine-figure contracts when he reaches free agency. Also like Alvarez, Porcello’s biggest issue comes from the type of contact he gives up to hitters. His SIERA was 3.88 last season and is 4.03 over his career. His fastball velocity is very hittable, sitting at an average speed of 90.5 mph. Be sure to keep in mind that he has been pitching since 2009 and this was his only his second season with over 180 innings, as well as his first 200 inning season.
Chris Tillman (SP, BAL)
Last year, Tillman was the ace of the Baltimore Orioles without question. He threw 200 innings for the second time in his career and had an ERA of 3.34. He was the Orioles’ go-to starter in the postseason and gave the Orioles a taste of what successful young pitching will look like in the future when Gausman and Bundy are ready to join him. Gausman and Bundy will easily be the top two as Tillman looks to experience regression next season. He had a low strikeout rate of 6.51 K/9 and managed to limit the walks to only 2.86 BB/9. But he is a risk to give up a lot of home runs (in spite of a promising .91 HR/9 in 2014) due to his career HR/9 of 1.26. He also gives up solid contact often with a 4.26 SIERA last season and a 4.32 SIERA over his career. He will be 27 in early April, so he's still young. But it is very likely that he may have reached his peak potential.
Lance Lynn (SP, STL)
Lance Lynn was a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals last season as the true number two pitcher behind Adam Wainwright. He posted an ERA of 2.74 in 201.3 innings with 181 strikeouts. Many of his numbers point to a potential and likely regression to come in 2015. His xFIP was 3.81, indicating that he was the beneficiary of some good luck in 2014. He also walks a lot of batters, giving up 3.18 BB/9 last season and 3.26 BB/9 over his career. He doesn’t miss bats quite like other pitchers with his fastball velocity of 92.4 mph. Lynn gives up solid contact to hitters as well, with a 3.84 SIERA last season and a 3.65 SIERA over his career. An ERA around 3.50 wouldn’t be surprising given the ability that he has shown in the past but anything lower than 3 is unlikely to happen.
