RADIO
Kevin Gausman – Worth the Hype in 2015?
Sporting a fastball that averages 95 mph and often sits just shy of 100, and a splitter that misses bats at a high rate, Kevin Gausman will likely be a popular sleeper pick in 2015 fantasy baseball drafts. But is he worth the hype? This author thinks his upside makes him worth the gamble.
2012-2014
After being drafted fourth overall in 2012, Gausman reached the majors in 2013. He pitched 47.2 innings in 20 appearances (5 starts). Despite great peripherals (9.5 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9), he was bitten by the home run bug (18.4% HR/FB) and bad batted ball numbers (.328 BABIP). As a result, he posted a 5.66 ERA.
2014 was a different story. While his strikeouts decreased (6.99 K/9) and his walks increased (3.02 BB/9), he cut back on the gopher ball (5.8% HR/FB), and opponents did less damage when they connected (.304 BABIP). The result was a 3.57 ERA.
What changed, and will those improvements hold and continue to progress in 2015?
The Why
Possibility 1: Gausman prioritized command and control over velocity
This theory proposes that in 2013, Gausman, a confident pitcher who had always been successful, reared back and trusted his stuff. Hitters often missed, but when they connected they did serious damage. As a result, the theory goes, Gausman decided to make a tradeoff in 2014: he would take something off the pitches and aim more for the corners, willing to increase walks and decrease strikeouts for lesser contact.
Watching Gausman, there is initial support. He did not appear to lose the zone completely in 2014. Rather, it looked like he missed the edges by narrow margins or had “strikes” called balls, suggesting he was aiming for the corners. Moreover, as would be expected by this theory, in 2014 he experienced decreased velocity, decreased strikeout rates, increased walk rates, and lessened damage on batted balls. Furthermore, Gausman, who was hammered on first pitch contact in 2013, threw fewer pitches in the zone on the first pitch in 2014 and limited the amount of first pitches put in play.
If this theory were true, one would expect Gausman to return more to his 2013 ways in 2014 high leverage situations, when he needed a strikeout or could not afford to walk a batter. Sure enough, in high leverage situations in 2014, Gausman had his highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate, combined with his highest batting average and slugging percentage allowed.
However, looking at 2013, the opposite was true in high leverage situations. He also gave up more home runs as a starter than as a reliever in 2013, which would suggest the added damage may have been due to something other than rearing back. As a result, this theory is inconclusive.
Possibility 2: Gausman was luckier in 2014 than in 2013
In 2014, Gausman experienced a lower BABIP and lower HR/FB ratio than in 2013. His 2013 numbers seem to be unusually high, but his 2014 numbers seem to be unexpectedly low. Thus, it is likely that luck played some role in the disparity between his 2014 and 2013 numbers.
The What
Gausman struggled when falling behind in 2014, and he fell behind at a higher rate
Even though the reason is not certain, Gausman threw more first pitch balls in 2014 than 2013. This likely contributed to his fewer strikeouts, as suggested by Scott Spratt in his piece entitled The Problem with Kevin Gausman. Spratt theorized that falling behind allowed hitters to sit on Gausman’s fastball and not chase his splitter. Supporting this theory, batters were much more successful after a first pitch ball (.820 OPS vs .501 OPS) or when ahead in the count in 2014 (.919 OPS vs .340 OPS).
The Future
The solution is more difficult than Gausman just throwing his fastball in the zone more on first pitches. Batters hit over .400 and slugged over .600 on first pitch contact the last two years. Moreover, hitters whiffed at his 128 first pitch four-seamers zero times in 2013. In 2014, they whiffed at about 4% of his 337 first pitch four-seamers.
The solution likely will require Gausman to improve secondary pitches. As a young pitcher, it is reasonable to expect that his secondary pitches will continue to develop. If so, he could keep hitters more off balance, not only likely leading to more first pitch strikes, but also lessening the impact of contact because hitters could not simply sit on the fastball on the first pitch or when Gausman falls behind. Because hitters performed so poorly when behind or after an initial 0-1 count, the impact of getting ahead more often could be very large.
Some may argue that even with improved secondary pitches and more first pitch strikes, the effect will be limited. After all, Gausman pitches in the AL East, which has hitters’ parks and improved lineups. Moreover, it’s possible that Gausman does not have the command we thought. But, based on the scouting reports and his age, there is reason for optimism.
Conclusion
Gausman is worth the hype due to his upside, even though the most likely outcome is that he will not meet his projected ADP. If he learns how to improve on his first-pitch and secondary pitches, he will significantly exceed that ADP. As an early offseason projection, I will predict 8 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, a HR/FB 10%, and an ERA of 3.50, with 15 wins with room for upside.
