5 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Outfielders to Target in Drafts (2026)

January 18, 2026

Jamie analyzes five fantasy baseball outfielders who disappointed in the 2025 season. His top five outfield breakouts picks for the 2026 season include Jasson Dominguez, Evan Carter, Cam Smith, Jordan Walker, more

In recent years, Major League Baseball has had plenty of exciting young players making their debuts. Some of them shine in their rookie seasons. Some of them take two or three years to find their feet at the elite level. Just because a young hitter doesn't excel right away doesn't mean they should be ignored in fantasy.

This year, there was no shortage of young hitters who didn't reach the heights many had hoped. Despite their lackluster seasons, they should not be discarded in 2026 drafts. Some could even prove to be steals in your fantasy drafts.

Here, we'll be looking at five young outfielders who struggled in 2025 but are set to bounce back in 2026. Write off these youngsters at your peril. Don't forget to follow the RotoBaller team for all your offseason news and articles.

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Jasson Dominguez, New York Yankees

On the surface, Dominguez had a pretty solid first full year in the majors. In 123 games, he hit .257/.331/.388 with 10 home runs, 47 RBI, 58 runs, and 23 stolen bases. Dominguez's fantasy value was ultimately capped by a lack of playing time as the season wore on.

In August, Dominguez only had 59 plate appearances, having had 87 in July. That dropped further in September, with Dominguez only making 20 trips to the plate. In the postseason, he was barely more than a spectator, getting just one plate appearance in the Yankees' seven playoff games.

That was partly down to Dominguez's struggles and partly down to a crowded lineup. Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger generally started in the outfield along with Aaron Judge. Giancarlo Stanton stayed healthy in the second half and hit well enough to get regular at-bats as the designated hitter (DH).

Sprinkle in Ben Rice and Paul Goldschmidt platooning at first base with some DH duties too, and Dominguez couldn't get enough playing time to justify a roster spot on fantasy teams. As things currently stand, that will change in 2026.

There's still plenty of time for the Yankees to sign or trade for an outfielder. If they don't, Dominguez could be set for a breakout season like many had hoped for in 2025. There were enough positive signs this year to believe that it will be the case in 2026.

Dominguez's 49.6% Hard-Hit% ranked in the 86th percentile, and his 74.1 MPH bat speed was in the 80th percentile. Unfortunately, too many groundballs and not enough line drives neutralized some of the hard contact. Dominguez also struggled as a switch-hitter.

Against left-handed pitching (LHP), Dominguez hit .204/.279/.290 with a 63 wRC+ (104 plate appearances). Against right-handed pitching (RHP), Dominguez hit .274/.348/.420 with a 116 wRC+ (325 plate appearances). Hitting RHP well is generally a positive, especially in Yankee Stadium.

However, the Yankees have plenty of left-handed hitters in their lineup. Dominguez will have to improve against LHP if he is to be an everyday player. He'll need more opportunities against them to do so. Dominguez only had 11 plate appearances against LHP in the second half of the season.

Even if Dominguez settles into more of a platoon role, he'll be on the strong side of one, and he hits RHP well enough to provide fantasy value. His speed is legit, and 30 stolen bases isn't beyond his reach. With a bit more power as he develops, 15 home runs are also attainable.

Dominguez has an ADP (average draft position) of 200 in early NFBC drafts. He should easily provide value on that, even with just a small bit of progress on his 2025 season. If Dominguez can take a big step forward in what will be his full sophomore season, he could be one of the steals of the draft.

Dylan Crews, Washington Nationals

Those of you who drafted Crews in 2025 might be a little reluctant to do so again in 2026. His 2025 season was one to forget. An oblique strain cost Crews nearly three months, and he never really performed as many hoped when he was healthy.

In 85 games, Crews hit 10 home runs, 27 RBI, 43 runs, 17 stolen bases with a .208/.280/.352 slash line. He did have better expected stats, with a .238 xBA and .392 xSLG. Neither is particularly good, but a .238 batting average would have been much more palatable for fantasy managers.

That's especially true when we consider what his 162-game pace was. Extrapolated over 162 games, Crews' 2025 numbers were 19 homers, 51 RBI, 82 runs, and 32 steals. If a player put up those numbers while hitting .238, they'd certainly be worth rostering in fantasy.

Crews' main value will come from the stolen bases. He had an average sprint speed of 29.0 ft/sec, which ranked in the 89th percentile. That also helps Crews' defense. His three OAA (outs above average) ranked in the 82nd percentile and will help keep him in the lineup when the bat isn't doing enough.

But if he at least comes close to 20 homers, Crews will be more than a one-trick pony. Where he hits in the lineup will impact the counting stats. Unless Crews can improve his on-base percentage, he'll likely hit in the bottom part of the lineup.

Despite that, Crews is not someone you should be ignoring in drafts. He's now got 116 MLB games under his belt (and 29 stolen bases). It's not outlandish to believe we see growth in 2026, especially if he stays healthy. A 15-home-run and 30-stolen-base season is definitely attainable.

With an ADP of 165 in early NFBC drafts, Crews can provide value. He retains the same sort of upside people drafted him for in 2025, but is going three or four rounds later. At the very least, Crews is someone to take if you miss out on speed early in your draft.

Cam Smith, Houston Astros

Smith's professional career has been an interesting one so far. He was the Chicago Cubs' first-round draft pick in 2024. Then sent to the Houston Astros in the Kyle Tucker trade. With just 32 minor league games under his belt, the Astros made Smith their primary right fielder in 2025.

It was a disappointing season for Smith, although expectations should have been tempered given his youth and inexperience. Smith hit .236/.312/.358 with nine homers, 51 RBI, 55 runs, and eight stolen bases. That has led to Astros General Manager Dana Brown stating that Smith could start 2026 in Triple-A.

Sounds like Smith will need to show signs of improvement in spring training if he wants to make the Opening Day roster. There's no reason he can't do that. The Astros haven't exactly been aggressive this offseason to find someone to replace Smith in the lineup.

Smith showed his potential in periods this year. He hit .307/.388/.400 with a 127 wRC+ in May. In June, Smith hit .303/.354/.494 with a 137 wRC+. Unfortunately, he struggled in the second half. That is hardly surprising given Smith was in his first full season in the pros, at the major league level.

Brown's comments may have been a way to light a fire under Smith. If he responds positively, we should see why the Cubs used a first-round draft pick on him, and why the Astros were eager to get Smith when trading away their star right fielder.

If Smith can hit as he did in May and June over a longer period, a breakout is on the horizon. His early ADP is 358, meaning he's undrafted in some leagues. It's still far too early to write him off. While it's also too early to expect big things, using a late-round draft pick on Smith in 2026 is set to pay dividends.

Evan Carter, Texas Rangers

It's fair to say Carter's MLB career hasn't gotten off to a good start. He made his major league debut in 2023 but has only played 131 games for the Rangers since then. Injuries have played a big part in his young career. Carter was limited to just 45 games in 2024 due to a back issue.

In 2025, Carter dealt with more back problems, a quad strain, and a wrist fracture, which ultimately ended his season in August. When healthy, Carter was solid. This year, he hit .247/.336/.392 with five homers, 25 RBI, 31 runs, and 14 steals (63 games).

If we look at his major league career as a whole, in 131 games, Carter has 15 home runs, 52 RBI, 69 runs, and 19 stolen bases with a .235/.326/.420 slash line. If he puts up those numbers across a full season, it would be a solid return given he's got an ADP of 367.

However, injuries aren't the only elephant in the room. Carter has not been able to hit LHP at the major league level. If we look at his splits, we can see just how much he's struggled against lefties.

We need to mention that Carter hasn't faced many lefties. The Rangers have been keen to protect Carter from LHP. Given his numbers against them, that trend will likely continue. The good news is, Carter is on the better side of any platoon.

Carter's defense is solid, and his speed is elite, ranking in the 90th percentile. If he stays healthy, and that's a big if right now, then Carter should play enough to be a viable fantasy option. You'll only need to use a late-round draft pick to roster Carter. At the very least, he can add some speed if you're lacking some steals.

Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals

Most fantasy managers will have lost patience with Walker. After an impressive debut in 2023, in which Walker hit .276/.342/.445 with 16 homers in 117 games, he's failed to come close to realizing his former top prospect status. That's why he will largely go undrafted in 2026.

I'm not willing to move on from Walker just yet. Most people are familiar with his batting profile. He hits the ball hard. The issue is that Walker hits too many groundballs, nullifying his power potential. His Statcast profile is probably one of the most telling in baseball.

Walker's 47.5% GB% (ground ball rate) ranked 33rd highest among the 242 batters with at least 350 plate appearances in 2025. Saying a player needs to elevate the ball more is too simplistic. It usually requires a lot of work on their swing, stance, and approach.

That's where the news of Walker visiting Driveline Baseball in October is cause for optimism. Again, it's too simplistic to believe a player will suddenly turn into Barry Bonds 2.0 just because he visited Driveline and changed his swing. But it's something that shouldn't be ignored.

Sprint speeds nice. Trotting around the bases? Even better 😎 Jordan Walker getting after it early this offseason alongside @AndrewAydt pic.twitter.com/4JagfJR2mE

— Driveline Baseball (@DrivelineBB) October 9, 2025

J.P. Crawford is a case in point. Following the 2022 season, Crawford visited Driveline. Baseball. He'd never hit double-digit home runs in a season before his visit. In 2023, Crawford hit .266/.380/.438 with 19 home runs. He's a poster boy for Driveline working.

If Walker can get similar results, it'll be a success story. He's already mentioned how the visit highlighted issues with his swing, specifically his back hip collapsing. Given how hard Walker hits the ball, a tweak to his swing to unlock more flyballs and line drives should lead to a significant uptick in his numbers.

We won't know how Walker's Driveline trip has helped, if at all, until he faces major league pitching. Considering you won't need to use more than a pick in the final couple of rounds to roster Walker, it's worth gambling on the trip being a big positive.

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