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The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.
Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season. We’re quickly approaching the midway point, and Week 8 features the shortest slate of games so far, with six teams on bye. Eight of the 13 matchups are inter-conference matchups this week, and many are projected as lopsided contests, as early look-ahead lines show eight of the 13 matchups with a spread of a touchdown or more.
That could certainly change as we get closer to Sunday, especially with key QB injuries still up in the air. The expectation is that star QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring) will make his return against the Bears, and his participation in practice on Wednesday is an encouraging sign. However, as one star dual-threat QB returns, another one goes down as Jayden Daniels is also dealing with a hamstring injury and will miss Monday night's showdown at Arrowhead against Patrick Mahomes and the red-hot Chiefs.
Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 8.
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Week 8 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game indicates my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.
13 - Indianapolis vs. Tennessee
This shapes up as a potential AFC South mismatch between the league’s best and worst teams. The Colts lead the NFL with a +92 point differential, well ahead of the next closest team, the Lions, at +64. Meanwhile, the Titans have plummeted to the bottom with a -96 differential, with only the Bengals (-78) close behind. Indianapolis’ offense has been historic through seven weeks, and Tennessee just lost its top defensive player, Jeffery Simmons, to a hamstring injury.
12 - Kansas City vs. Washington
Marcus Mariota walking into Arrowhead Stadium as a big underdog? We've seen this story before, back in January of 2018, when Mariota led the Titans to a 22-21 road playoff win at Kansas City. The 31-year-old has been back to Arrowhead twice since that game, but not as a starter, and played one snap in each game. Washington has moved to a 12.5-point underdog with Daniels (hamstring) ruled out. The last time Washington traveled to Kansas City was also on a Monday night back in October of 2017, when Kirk Cousins and Washington almost pulled off the upset, but came up short after Josh Doctson failed to come down with a potential go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute remaining.
Kirk Throwback:
Week 4 2017 @ KC
Kirk makes a money throw on 3rd down for a potential game-winner, but Josh Doctson drops it & the Chiefs drive down to win on a FG. For those unfamiliar, Doctson was Kirk’s original version of Laquon Treadwell. This game stung pic.twitter.com/z29Easej2V— Joe (@realjoespinosa) February 9, 2022
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 8 Pick 'Em Pools
11 - New England vs. Cleveland
10 - Buffalo at Carolina
Buffalo enters Week 8 coming off two straight losses for just the 11th time in the Josh Allen era (since 2018). The Bills are 8-3 in games following those streaks, but have little recent history against Carolina. They’ve played only three times in Charlotte, where the Panthers scored just 14, 9, and 9 points, with the last meeting being a 9-3 Carolina win in September 2017, one year before Allen arrived. That contrasts sharply with this year’s Panthers team, which has been far stronger at home than on the road. And it looks like veteran Andy Dalton will likely start in place of an injured Bryce Young (ankle).
No team in the #NFL is more Jekyll & Hyde than the Carolina Panthers:
3rd biggest home/away offensive EPA/play difference
4th biggest defensive differenceOnly team top 5 in both
Offense: 11th at home, 27th away
Defense: 7th at home, 30th away#RandomStats— Kyle McCarthy (@KyleStats1738) October 16, 2025
9 - Atlanta vs. Miami
Miami is coming off the lowest point of their season after a miserable weather game in Cleveland, where they were inept offensively. Their 24% offensive success rate was surprisingly one-upped on the week, with the Raiders posting an impossible 12% success rate. Both marks are bottom three offensive performances of any game so far this season. While Atlanta, on the other hand, returns home, where they've played much better ball and should handle a broken 1-6 Dolphins team. Michael Penix Jr. (knee) is on the injury report to begin the week, which will be something to monitor.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 8
8 - Baltimore vs. Chicago
This game poses as the biggest wild card with Jackson's status (hamstring) still up in the air. If he is good to go, the Ravens would bump up a couple of spots here. The Baltimore defense is still a big concern, but they did manage to hold Matthew Stafford and the Rams to 17 points in Week 6 before their bye. Meanwhile, the Bears are riding high on a four-game win streak, and the last time they played in Baltimore in October 2017, Bears kicker Connor Barth nailed a 40-yard field goal to walk off the Ravens in overtime. So there is plenty of intrigue for this one.
#CHIvsBAL Con gol de campo de Connor Barth, los @ChicagoBears sacan el triunfo en tiempo extra ante los @Ravens 27-24 pic.twitter.com/VZbLBD37gn
— NFL México (@nflmx) October 15, 2017
7 - Cincinnati vs. New York Jets
Joe Flacco revenge game? Flacco and the Bengals are fresh off a thrilling Thursday night win over the AFC North-leading Steelers in Week 7. And the 0-7 Jets don't know who they are starting at QB with Tyrod Taylor popping up on the injury report today with a knee injury and clouding his status for Week 8. But the difference between Taylor and Justin Fields is negligible, with both being really bad when given the opportunity.
6 - Philadelphia vs. New York Giants
The Giants and Eagles meet again for the second time in three weeks. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart looked incredibly poised and confident in their Week 6 upset win and has continued to look great against one of the best defenses in the league in Denver. But how will they respond after a historic blown lead? The Eagles are back at home after an impressive 28-22 road win, where Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, and A.J. Brown found their mojo again.
5 - Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Both teams are coming off double-digit road losses to NFC North teams. The Spencer Rattler train lost some steam after a tough outing in Chicago last week, as he turned the ball over four times and took four sacks in a 26-14 loss. And the Baker Mayfield MVP candidacy also lost some luster as he struggled to move the ball against a solid Lions defense. Mayfield has crushed the Saints in New Orleans since coming to Tampa Bay, winning 26-9 in 2023 and then hanging 50 on them last season in a 51-27 win.
4 - Denver vs. Dallas
Dallas decimated a horrendous Washington defense last week, while the Broncos scored the second-most points in the fourth quarter of all time (33) en route to a historic comeback victory. Denver's defense is still good, but it's been exposed by the more high-end offenses. Currently, it's the only game with a total set in the 50s (50.5). It should be fast fast-paced game. The Cowboys haven't won in Denver since 1992 and have lost seven straight against them.
3 - Green Bay at Pittsburgh
Aaron Rodgers faces his former team, the Green Bay Packers, for the first time since leaving the franchise on Sunday Night Football. There will be plenty of buzz and storylines heading into this matchup. It's a rematch of Super Bowl XLV in the 2010-2011 season, when Rodgers won his first and only Lombardi Trophy. The Packers, while still thought of as a top team in the league, have scraped by the Bengals and Cardinals the last two weeks.
Aaron Rodgers first career game vs Green Bay 👀 pic.twitter.com/nvVHFDFqAQ
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) October 22, 2025
2 - Houston vs. San Francisco
Houston's offense got sent back to earth on Monday night in Seattle, with just a 36% offensive success rate after finding success against weaker defensive units before their bye. They hung 26 points on the Titans in Week 4 and then 44 on the Ravens the next week with a 66% success rate, still the best mark of any team in any game so far. The defense is still great, though. Meanwhile, the 49ers keep finding ways to win despite an onslaught of injuries.
1 - Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers
We got the full Carson Wentz experience last week against his former team. And it looks like we'll be getting that again on Thursday Night Football with the ambiguous reports on J.J. McCarthy's ankle. The defense is gettable in the run game, but that's not an area where the Chargers are built to take advantage of right now, given the state of their offensive line, although they might be getting stud tackle Joe Alt back, which would be massive. And the Chargers defense has been leaky of late, so as long as Wentz can distribute to his lethal receiver duo without too much harm, they should have a good shot to pull off the road win.
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