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Expert Week 7 Thursday Night Football bets, anytime TD scorer, and player prop predictions. Free TNF betting picks, anytime TD scorer, and player props for Week 7.
Thursday Night Football heads to Cincinnati, Ohio, this week for an AFC North battle between the 4-1 Pittsburgh Steelers and 2-4 Cincinnati Bengals. Many are calling it the Unc Bowl, or the Icy Hot Bowl. Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco are set for the fourth matchup of all time between two QBs over age 40.
The Steelers beat up on the Dillon Gabriel-led Browns last week to get to 4-1 for the first time since 2016 and take a dominant lead in the division. And the Bengals put up a valiant effort at Lambeau Field, but ultimately lost to fall to a 2-4 record and own the worst point differential in the league.
Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco will be the second oldest QB matchup of all-time behind Tom Brady and Drew Brees in 2020! 😱 pic.twitter.com/bt7az2l6Eb
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Can the Bengals bounce back with a home upset win, or will the Steelers take care of business on the road? Let's get to the picks!
Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (-240 ML) at Cincinnati Bengals (+198 ML)
Over/Under (44.5)
The Steelers under Mike Tomlin typically haven't performed very well on Thursday nights. He has a career 2-9 record in road Thursday night games since being hired in 2007. Their last win on Thursday Night Football came back in 2016, and they're in the midst of a four-game losing streak on Thursdays.
"The Steelers just know who they are right now. You can tell that they know how they have to play these games and win these games."@JJWatt on the Steelers ahead of their game against the Bengals ✍️
(via @PatMcAfeeShow) pic.twitter.com/9FURdFWbWJ— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 15, 2025
But the Bengals have been the worst team in football this season by point differential (-80). There are plenty of historical trends that favor Cincinnati in this matchup, but they've simply been one of the worst teams on both sides of the ball. But Joe Flacco is here to save the day, and perhaps he can elevate things. The initial signs were encouraging as Flacco helped lead the offense to by far their best success rate (52.3%) of the season. Given the circumstances of him just getting traded to Cincinnati on Tuesday, then going on the road to face the vaunted Packers defense, it was a job well done by Flacco as he consistently executed in key situations.
They gained only 268 total yards in the game, but it was easily their best success rate in a game this season. The Bengals' next highest success rate in a game this season came back in Week 2 at just 43.5%. And it was the second-highest mark that the Packers defense has allowed this season. They'll face another tough challenge on Thursday with a Mike Tomlin defense.
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
Rodgers and Flacco have faced off just three times over the course of their long careers. With them playing in opposite conferences for the vast majority of their careers, it limited the meetups to once every four years for the most part. Rodgers is 3-0 versus Flacco all-time.
Not the easiest spot for Mike Tomlin and the Steelers...
• Short rest on road: 8-10 SU
• Short rest on road vs. AFC North: 3-7 SU
• Road on TNF: 2-9 SU
• Road on TNF vs. AFC North: 0-6 SU pic.twitter.com/hmKdP6h5LJ— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) October 15, 2025
Flacco has, however, faced Mike Tomlin plenty of times. Flacco has seen Tomlin 22 times in his career, which is the most of any QB. And he's a perfectly balanced 11-11 against him, averaging 228.5 yards per game, a 61.04% completion percentage, with 27 TDs and 12 INTs.
Pittsburgh finally outgained its opponent in total yardage last week against Cleveland after failing to do so in each of its first four games. The Bengals' defense is still bad, ranking 29th in EPA/play. But it's also a bit of a letdown spot here for the Steelers, with plenty of luck going their way over the first month of the season, plus multiple historical trends pointing us in the direction of Cincinnati. I expect the Bengals to move the ball against a Steelers defense that hasn’t been as dominant as expected.
Pittsburgh plays at one of the slowest paces in the league, while Cincinnati ranks top five in tempo. Despite the lower total, both offenses should be efficient, so we’ll take the over 44.5 points. We’re also backing Flacco and the Bengals on the spread, with a small sprinkle on the moneyline.
The Picks: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (-114), Over 44.5 (-106)
Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Joe Flacco Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+152)
Flacco threw two touchdowns against Green Bay with less than a week of practice time. He'll barely have over a week with the team when he plays on Thursday, but with his core of weapons and the potential for high pass volume, he could replicate that performance on Thursday night. In his extended run with the Browns in 2023, he threw multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, including a game on Thursday Night Football where he threw three.
Kenneth Gainwell 4+ Receptions (+142)
Gainwell has been the preferred receiving back in Pittsburgh and has recorded six catches in back-to-back games. Gainwell has run 43.8% of the team's routes compared to Warren’s 33.6% on the season. Warren has run more routes in only one of the four games they've played together this season. Gainwell has at least four targets in all games but one game this season. The Bengals are allowing nearly five receptions per game to opposing RBs. And Aaron Rodgers loves to dump the ball underneath these days. He has the lowest aDOT in the league (5.4) and is top ten in Checkdown% (11.6%).
Noah Fant Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Fant has been right at or near this line in every game this season except Week 2, when he did not record any stats. But this is despite his playing at most only 50% of snaps. And now, top two tight ends, Mike Gesicki (pectoral) and Tanner Hudson (concussion), are ruled out for this game, which opens the door for Fant to take the bulk of the snaps. Any increase would likely be enough to get across the 30-yard threshold. Flacco loves to pepper his tight ends, see David Njoku in Cleveland, and the Steelers have struggled against tight ends. They've allowed the second-highest yards per game (71.8), fifth most receptions (6.4), and three total touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
Explosive play to Noah Fant off of play action from the pistol.
I'd argue the play action doesn't actually have much to do with why this works as the LBs don't take a single step forward but the crossing route against match coverage gets Fant on a LB. pic.twitter.com/fWbabE2WA6
— mike (@bengals_sans) September 15, 2025
Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bets
D.K. Metcalf Anytime Touchdown (+150)
We rode with Metcalf's Ole Miss teammate to bring us into the end zone last week, but that unfortunately did not happen. We'll run it back with Metcalf as he's been a TD machine this year, scoring in every game except Week 1. Rodgers is very clearly comfortable working with Metcalf in the red zone, plus we saw his dynamic ability to house a slant from anywhere on the field in their win over the Vikings in London. Metcalf should have a few opportunities in the red zone as long as the Steelers can move the ball against a bad Bengals defense.
THERE GOES THAT MAN‼️ @dkm14
📲 Stream on NFL+: https://t.co/szceXBjRdr pic.twitter.com/MNYhN9peOb
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) September 28, 2025
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