Tight Ends Start 'Em, Sit 'Em and Fantasy Football Trends for Week 4 (2025)

Rob's tight end fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 4 of the 2025 season. Who should I start at tight end for fantasy football in Week 4 lineups?

With three weeks of data, we can begin to see some real trends at the tight end position. We can examine the data trends to determine which tight ends we should bet on and which ones we should steer clear of. The tight end position is always the most difficult to read.

We'll be looking at snap share, route share, and target share to decipher which tight ends are worth betting on. The tight end position can be greatly influenced by touchdowns, but touchdowns are fickle and rarely predictable. That means box scores and even half-PPR PPG can lie to us with such small samples.

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Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Jake Ferguson is a Top-Five Tight End

CeeDee Lamb left early in Week 3, and following his absence, Ferguson dominated Dak Prescott's attention. In the second half, Ferguson posted a 40.0% target rate. He had a 23.1% target share. The downside to Ferguson is his average depth of target. For the season, he's averaging just 4.7 air yards per target. He's averaging just 5.7 yards per target and 6.8 yards per reception.

Because of this, Ferguson is not an ideal option if you happen to play standard scoring. So many of his points come from his receptions. For the season, Ferguson leads the league with 27 receptions. Only Juwan Johnson has more targets than Ferguson has catches. Ferguson has more catches than Trey McBride has targets. Think about that!

“Fergy is playing really well right now” 🎙️#DallasCowboys | @ntxford pic.twitter.com/7ECUtD7OMu

— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) September 24, 2025

In any PPR-scoring league, Ferguson appears to be locked in as a top-five tight end for the duration of Lamb's absence. Even once he returns, Ferguson has been earning more targets and at a higher frequency than George Pickens.

Hunter Henry is a Top-Ten Tight End

In 2021, the lone season Josh McDaniels and Henry's tenure in New England overlapped, Henry finished as the TE12, averaging 8.5 half-PPR PPG. In that season, he had nine touchdowns. Through three weeks, Henry is the TE1, averaging 11.7 half-PPR PPG. The majority of his 35 total points came this past week when he finished with 25 points. However, he scored 8.6 half-PPR points in Week 1, as well.

Drake Maye finds Hunter Henry for his 2nd touchdown reception of the day! The New England Patriots are now tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers at 14. #NEPats

Keep feeding the TEs.pic.twitter.com/8T70VBbM2o

— Patriots Lead (@Patriots_Lead) September 21, 2025

Through three weeks, his 0.9 half-PPR point performance in Week 2 looks like the outlier. In Weeks 1 and 3, Henry had eight and 11 targets, respectively. He also finished with 66 and 90 yards in those two contests. Henry's utilization aligns more with his performances in Weeks 1 and 3. His expected half-PPR PPG is 14.7, which is higher than what he's actually averaging. Even in Week 2, when he flopped, his expected half-PPR was still 8.3.

There are plenty of reasons to love the way New England is using him. No tight end in the NFL has a higher air yard share (28.1%) than Henry. His 9.2 average depth of target is tied for first among tight ends with at least 10 targets with Brock Bowers. When tight ends are used so close to the line of scrimmage, they need either a lot of targets or a high touchdown rate. Henry's downfield usage gives him another avenue for fantasy production.

With the way he's being utilized, Henry is a must-start tight end. This is especially true with the Patriot receivers, who are underperforming. Right now, Henry is Drake Maye's most trusted and effective pass-catcher.

No Hope for Jonnu Smith

I had very little hope for Smith after he was traded to the Steelers. In his seven seasons before his breakout year with the Dolphins, Smith had just one season with more than 450 yards. He had only three seasons with more than 375 yards. Going into his age-30 season with so little previous production, his 2024 season looked like the definition of a one-hit wonder. There was some optimism because Arthur Smith had traded for him. However, that never made sense to me because of his previous stats.

Smith's route share for the season is just 56.7%. As bad as that sounds, it actually gets worse, if you can believe that. He has 13 targets on the year, but is averaging just 0.8 air yards per target. He has more targets than air yards, which is alarming. That very statistic eliminates all kinds of upside. All of it.

Dalton Kincaid Defying Logic

Through three weeks, there are 25 tight ends with ten or more targets. Kincaid ranks 20th in route share at 56.5%, which is actually lower than Smith. However, despite his poor route rate, he is still averaging a strong 10.2 expected half-PPR PPG, which is mostly on par with his 11.2 half-PPR PPG. While a lot of his production has come from touchdowns, he does have three end zone targets. That ranks first among tight ends.

Way to get in there @_DaltonKincaid 😁

📺: @nflonprime pic.twitter.com/CROO9djmDS

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 19, 2025

His five red zone targets also rank first among tight ends. While Kincaid is not running many routes, he's being targeted often on the routes he is running. He currently ranks fifth among tight ends with a 25% target rate, which is helping to offset his 15.8% target share. Sometimes a high touchdown total can be a red flag, but in Kincaid's case, his utilization matches his touchdown number.

He's also been incredibly efficient with the routes he's running. His 2.32 yards per route run average is fifth among tight ends. Given the lack of production from Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir, despite Kincaid's poor route share, I'm okay with buying Kincaid. While many may characterize him as a sell-high because of the touchdown total, I'm willing to bet on Kincaid's first-round draft pedigree and his hot start to the 2025 season.

If the Eagles Figured It Out, Keep an Eye Out for Dallas Goedert

The Philadelphia passing game has been abysmal through the first two and a half games. However, in the second half of their comeback victory against the Rams, Jalen Hurts and the passing game seemed to figure it out. They looked much more like a 2025 NFL offense. If that continues, Goedert is someone to consider moving forward. Goedert missed the second week of the season, but his usage in Weeks 1 and 2 is strong.

His 87.1% route share is second only to McBride. His air yard share ranks sixth at 17.8% and his target share is 11th at 16.4%. Much like the entire Philadelphia offense, there will be boom and bust games because it won't be an offense that generates a lot of volume. However, if it can be as effective as it was in the second half of Week 3, Goedert's strong utilization trend will keep him in the top 15.

Mason Taylor Could be a Second-Half Sleeper

When Justin Fields was the starting quarterback in Chicago, he helped D.J. Moore and tight end Cole Kmet both finish in the top 12 at their respective positions. That was despite a low-volume passing offense. There are a lot of similarities between that situation and the one Fields currently finds himself in. Taylor is in a position to be Field's "Kmet".

His route share through three weeks ranks 11th at 71.8%. That's higher than Zach Ertz and T.J. Hockenson. Over the past three weeks, that hasn't amounted to much. However, Taylor is a rookie, and Fields left the game early in Week 2 with a concussion and did not play in Week 3.

Once Fields is back under, and Taylor gets his feet wet in the NFL, he could work his way up to streamer status in the right matchups. He's being given the opportunity to earn more targets, and outside of Garrett Wilson, there's very little target competition. We'll see if he's able to do anything with it, but the potential is there.

Week 4 Rankings

1. Trey McBride vs Seattle
2. Brock Bowers vs Chicago
3. Tyler Warren at Los Angeles (Rams)
4. Tucker Kraft at Dallas
5. Jake Ferguson vs Green Bay
6. Hunter Henry vs Carolina
7. Dalton Kincaid vs New Orleans
8. Sam LaPorta vs Cleveland
9. Juwan Johnson at Buffalo
10. T.J. Hockenson at Pittsburgh
11. Mark Andrews at Kansas City
12. Travis Kelce vs Baltimore
13. Zach Ertz at Atlanta
14. David Njoku vs Detroit
15. Kyle Pitts Sr. vs Washington
16. Dallas Goedert at Tampa Bay
17. Chig Okonkwo at Houston
18. Harold Fannin Jr. at Detroit
19. Brenton Strange at San Francisco
20. Theo Johnson vs Los Angeles (Chargers)

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