RADIO
Corbin's top rebound candidates - fantasy football draft values, sleepers with upside that should deliver better performances in 2025 based on improved usage.
The process for identifying rebound candidates involved examining players who underperformed or were inefficient. It could be for various reasons, like an injury, the offensive environment, or small samples. These potential players that could rebound fit those molds.
These players may not excite fantasy managers, but they could provide value by bouncing back and performing better than expected. Like usual, we'll provide data-focused reasons for why they could rebound in 2025.
These players fall into the bucket of ones that could provide medium hits with low risks, including the potential for a few spike weeks. Should we target or fade these players? Let's dive into the process of why these players can rebound in 2025.
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FFPC ADP: 84.7, WR40
We’ve seen Samuel’s usage and expected fantasy points (EP/G) decline over the past two seasons, ranking as WR25 (2023) and WR35 (2024) in EP/G. It’s noisy, but Samuel seems to swap efficient and inefficient seasons every other season. Samuel had a chest/rib injury around Week 8, which then turned into pneumonia. That logically explains part of the reason for Samuel’s decline in EP/G.
Samuel had an 82.1 percent route rate and 21 percent target rate while posting a 2.28 yards per route run in Weeks 1-6. We also saw his average target rate increase to 10 yards in the first six weeks, which is unusual. We saw a downtick in usage and production after Week 7.
In Weeks 7-16, with Ricky Pearsall active and Samuel battling through the aftereffects of pneumonia, Samuel was third on the team in route percentage (69.3 percent), target per route (22 percent), and yards per route run (1.54) behind George Kittle and Jauan Jennings.
As the season progressed, the 49ers incorporated Pearsall more into the offense, especially in the final two weeks. Samuel still ran routes at a high rate (81.3 percent), with Jennings seeing a dip in Weeks 17-18. However, Samuel’s target rate fell to three percent with an awful 0.14 yards per route run.
Samuel’s -5 average target depth suggests he may have been playing in the backfield and used as a rusher. That was somewhat evident with 15 of Samuel’s rush attempts (35.7 percent) coming in the final four weeks. The 49ers were digging into their running back depth, with Isaac Guerendo leading the team with a 42 percent rush percentage in Weeks 15-18. Meanwhile, Patrick Taylor Jr. (30 percent) and Samuel (18 percent) accounted for the rest in the final four weeks.
Samuel’s Fit in the Commanders’ Offense
Jayden Daniels targeted Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown on 22 percent of their routes, and they were the downfield targets. That’s evident in McLaurin’s 13.7 average target depth and Brown's 11.7 yards. They retained Brown after having a season-ending kidney injury, with McLaurin still having contract discussions.
The Commanders used Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown in the short areas of the field, aligning with Samuel’s deployment in the 49ers’ offense. That’s evident in Samuel’s 6.8 air yards per target (No. 93) in 2024 and 6.6 (No. 86) in 2023. On a positive note, Samuel still showed he can create yards after the catch (YAC), with the third-highest in 2024 and the highest in 2023 in YAC per reception.
Summary
Samuel has multiple paths to earn volume in the Commanders’ offense. No shade to Brown, but he has been somewhat of an unproven veteran whom they needed to rely upon out of necessity last season. If they trade McLaurin, that further opens up paths for Samuel as a target earner. Though the Commanders’ backfield has been taking the fantasy world by storm, it won’t lead to them relying heavily upon one of them after ranking seventh in pass rate over expected in 2024. Samuel has a fair ADP as a WR3/4 that should bounce back in an above-average offense.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
FFPC ADP: 66.8, RB24
We might be speaking out of both sides of our mouths after calling Pacheco a fade at cost, especially in the running back dead zone, if it still exists. Pacheco ranked third-worst in FPOE/G at the position, indicating he was one of the most inefficient running backs. He was ahead of teammate Kareem Hunt and Terrell Jennings, suggesting the Chiefs’ backfield was awful in 2024.
After Pacheco ranked 12th in EP/G, his ranking fell to 36th, indicating a decline in usage. We could blame the lower leg injury that caused him to miss most of the season. However, one could argue that what if Pacheco had remained healthy, given that he averaged 18.4 EP/G in the first two weeks?
Pacheco garnered a 73 percent snap share, 65 percent rush percentage, and a 16 percent target share. That’s significantly different than Pacheco’s 60 percent snap share, 58 percent rush rate, and 10 percent target share in 2023. After Pacheco returned from his lower leg injury, the Chiefs mixed him in while maintaining a 2-3 person backfield.
Hunt (39 percent) and Pacheco (38 percent) nearly matched each other in snap share. Meanwhile, Hunt (36 percent) and Pacheco (40 percent) had similar rush rates in Weeks 13-18. The Chiefs averaged the 11th-most targets and the ninth-most receiving EP/G among the running backs in 2024. That hints at Pacheco likely being more reliant on his rushing workload unless the 3-4 targets per game rebounds in 2025.
Summary
The Chiefs invested a first-round pick in their offensive line with a few depth pieces. At the offensive skill position, Jalen Royals remains the highest-drafted player. They added Elijah Mitchell and Brashard Smith, making us wonder whether the low-probability players could make an impact in the Chiefs’ backfield. If healthy, Pacheco could rebound to make him a draft value in 2025.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
FFPC ADP: 108.4, TE14
After Stefon Diggs left the Bills, many expected Kincaid to take a Travis Kelce-like leap in volume. Kincaid maintained his 18-20 percent target share and repeated his 14th-highest EP/G among the position. He trailed Khalil Shakir (23 percent) in target share. Besides spreading the ball around, the Bills were balanced on offense in neutral game scripts, ranking 18th in pass rate in neutral situations.
The visual below shows the teams that prefer to stay balanced with a 45 percent neutral script rush rate over the past two seasons.
Kincaid’s efficiency fell from 0.3 FPOE/G (No. 32) in 2023 to -1.5 FPOE/G (No. 134) in 2024. That’s mainly due to Kincaid struggling to convert his air yards into receiving production. Kincaid had a 1.25 Receiver Air Yard Conversion Ratio (RACR), ranking 10th in 2023. That fell to a 0.78 RACR (No. 33) in 2024.
From a real-life standpoint, the Bills were the third-most efficient offense in EPA/DB behind the Ravens and Lions. Defenses will continue to need to play a high rate of man coverage, given the threat of Josh Allen. For context, the Bills faced the second-highest rate of man coverage, behind the Eagles. The top five teams that faced man coverage include the Eagles, Bills, Patriots, Commanders, and Steelers.
There should be target opportunities for Kincaid to take advantage of one-on-one matchups, especially on horizontally breaking routes. Kincaid led the team with a whopping 32 percent target rate on horizontally breaking routes in 2024.
Summary
Kincaid has been valued similarly to his expected fantasy points from the past two seasons. The Bills didn’t add any notable pass catchers that could be average or high-end target earners. Josh Palmer is a replacement for Mack Hollins, with additional depth via Elijah Moore and Laviska Shenault. We can’t overlook the issue of the Bills also loving and using Dawson Knox. He had a 48.3 percent route rate behind Kincaid (57.7 percent) last season. The situation remains the same from last year, but Kincaid’s price dropped, suggesting the potential for a rebound in 2025.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
FFPC ADP: 79.4, WR37
Olave took a step forward in Year 2, posting the 14th-best EP/G while showing an improvement in raw targets and yards. Unfortunately, Olave suffered a concussion in Week 6 and another in Week 9, which caused him to miss the rest of the season.
Olave’s underlying metrics that matter aligned with previous seasons. That’s evident in Olave’s 24 percent target rate, 2.26 yards per route run, and 22.3 percent first-read target rate. The main change was Rashid Shaheed taking a step forward before dealing with injuries. Shaheed led the team in air yards share (48.2 percent) with a similar target rate (25 percent) and a team-high first-read target share (29.8 percent).
Olave was valued as a top 24 pick in drafts over the past two seasons, with a significantly discounted price and ready to rebound in 2025. The concerns might be the concussions and quarterback worries with Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough. Kellen Moore became the Saints’ head coach, and we’re going to see them use more play-action.
The Eagles ranked 12th in play-action rate (24.1 percent) with the Saints at 19.8 percent (No. 23). They used motion at similar rates, with the Eagles at 50.7 percent (No. 14) and the Saints at 54.3 percent (No. 12). We’ll also see the Saints attempt passes downfield after they ranked 19th in explosive pass rate (20 or more yards), compared to the Eagles at seventh.
That might fit Shaheed’s skillset better. However, simply more play-action will benefit Olave and Shaheed.
Summary
Injuries and concussions aside, it’s rare to find young and talented receivers who have proven they can earn targets like Olave and be priced as a WR4. The risk is built into Olave’s price because his expected fantasy points suggested a borderline WR1 in his first two seasons. If we look at Olave’s top comparisons among receivers within their first two seasons in the NFL since 2010, we have mostly high-end receivers.
That list included Percy Harvin, Diontae Johnson, Zay Flowers, Amari Cooper, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CeeDee Lamb, T.Y. Hilton, and Brandon Aiyuk. The other key component for the Saints’ offense will be whether they can protect the quarterback, given that they allowed the ninth-highest pressure rate last season. The drafted LT Kelvin Banks Jr. in the first round and added offensive line depth, showing they’re attempting to invest in pass protection. Buy the dip on Olave’s price as one of the top receiver rebound candidates.
Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants
FFPC ADP: 173.7, WR66
Robinson might be the quietest player to have 141 targets, translating to a 25 percent target share, and be valued as a late-round pick that some forget. There were 19 receivers with 140 targets and a 25 percent target share over the past two seasons. This is the Robinson threshold, but he goes outside the top 150 picks in most leagues.
Three receivers met those marks in the past two years, including Garrett Wilson, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Yes, Robinson isn’t in the same category as those strong target earners. However, Robinson has to have one of the quieter volume seasons, with a potential efficiency boost in 2025.
Though Robinson has been known as a slot receiver, he had a nearly full-time role, running routes on 81.7 percent of the team’s dropbacks. Robinson earned the second-highest target rate at 24 percent on the team while playing in the slot 77.8 percent of the time. Unfortunately, Robinson isn’t the best separator, so he needs to be schemed open on horizontally breaking routes, with 26 percent of his targets coming on those east-to-west routes.
The fantasy production was about even when Daniel Jones was the starting quarterback or not, with Robinson. When Jones was the quarterback, Robinson averaged 10.4 PPR/G compared to 9.5 without Jones. That’s notable because the Giants ranked second-to-last in EPA/DB with Jones missing some time. There should be a quarterback upgrade for Malik Nabers and Robinson heading into 2025, whether it’s Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, or Jaxson Dart.
Summary
Robinson is an efficiency rebound candidate. Unfortunately, the historical data for inefficient receivers that earn 140 targets and a 25 percent target share haven’t been efficient in the following season. That’s especially true with receivers finishing with negative FPOE. However, it’s worth noting that two out of seven receivers showed improved efficiency in the following season among the players with -10 FPOE or more. Given the quarterback upgrades for the Giants, Robinson should be more efficient, which is reasonable and within the range of outcomes. Even if Robinson lacks the touchdown or big-play upside, he feels undervalued based on his usage and price.
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