Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Part 13

Thunder Dan Palyo breaks down three more starting pitchers to see which of them can finish the season strong and carry your fantasy baseball team to a championship.

Last week, I took a break from this piece as I spent some time analyzing some of the bigger MLB trades that took place at the deadline and their fantasy impact.

At this point in the year, I've broken down a large chunk of the relevant starting pitchers in baseball, and I was struggling with which pitchers to focus on this week before I decided to take a look at some younger pitchers who have made only a handful of starts so far this season.

If you're looking for some further analysis on Joe Boyle or Cam Schlittler, check out Elliot Baas's article here. But for today, I'll be digging deeper into Logan Henderson, Emmet Sheehan, and Zebby Matthews - three young pitchers who are readily available on waivers to see which of them, if any, could be an impactful pitcher for fantasy purposes down the stretch.

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Logan Henderson - Milwaukee Brewers (34% rostered)

Fantasy Stats: 25.1 IP, 3 W, 1.78 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 33K

Advanced Stats: 3.12 SIERA, 3.57 xERA, 33.3% K%, 8.1% BB%

Henderson has made just five starts for the Brewers this season. He was called up in April and quickly grabbed our attention with a six-inning, nine-strikeout performance against the Athletics, but was sent back down to the minors afterwards.

He got the call back up in mid-May and made three consecutive starts against Cleveland, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. He went five innings in each and allowed just three earned runs across those 15 innings while striking out 20 batters.

Logan Henderson now owns a 1.78 ERA and 33 Ks through 25.1 MLB innings 📈 pic.twitter.com/djRYldD7Z2

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) August 3, 2025

Then, Milwaukee demoted him again, which seemed wild based on his success, but the Brewers had a ton of depth in their rotation and also wanted to give their top pitching prospect, Jacob Misiorowski, an opportunity to crack the rotation, too. So Henderson was jettisoned to the waiver wire by many as he spent the next two months at Triple-A before being summoned last week to make a spot start for Misiorowski, who hit the IL.

Henderson failed to get through five in his most recent start against Washington, but he was still effective, limiting the Nationals to one run on three hits while striking out four. He's earned at least one more start on Saturday against the Mets, but could still be the odd man out in the rotation if Misiorowski returns on schedule and the Brewers choose to be cautious with Henderson, who has pitched 103 innings this season between Triple-A and the majors (he tossed just 81 innings in 2024 and 78 innings in 2023).

Let's take a quick look at his pitch mix and movement profile.

My first critique would be that he's too heavily invested in his fastball/changeup and lacks a strong third pitch. I will say both his fastball and changeup have been incredibly effective so far due to some elite horizontal movement on both pitches. He brings his four-seamer at just 93 mph, so the movement is very important as he gets nearly 11 inches of arm-side run that bears in on right-handed hitters.

His changeup breaks nearly 19 inches to his arm side and averages around 11 mph slower than his fastball, creating a nice gap in velocity. He throws his cutter exclusively to lefties and his slider only to righties, so his slider usage should increase over more innings as he sees more RHH, but neither pitch has the same kind of excellent movement that his fastball and changeup have, and you can tell that he only mixes them in occasionally to try to keep hitters honest.

I'd love to see him get a longer audition this season with the Brewers to see if he can sustain his early success, but I do think they'll handle him with care. He doesn't project as a 30%+ or sub-2.00 ERA pitcher, but his underlying stats do suggest that his stuff is pretty good and that he's not a fluke.

Verdict: You can add him now and hope to be able to stream him for a few more starts, but I wouldn't drop anyone with more long-term value for Henderson, as I don't see him making more than a handful more starts at the MLB level. He has a promising future and could be a core piece of their rotation as early as next year.

Emmet Sheehan - Los Angeles Dodgers (26% rostered)

Fantasy Stats: 30 IP, 3 W, 3.00 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 31 K

Advanced Stats: 3.99 SIERA, 3.59 xERA, 25% K%, 8.9% BB%

The Dodgers have had some of the worst luck in terms of keeping starting pitchers healthy the last two seasons. They managed to win it all last year anyway and are still the favorites in the National League to return to the World Series again.

Sheehan was coming off an injury of his own that caused him to miss the entire 2024 season, but he put up such incredible strikeout numbers at Triple-A (42.5% K% to just a 2% BB%) that he was called up to the bigs in mid-June.

Emmet Sheehan, Nasty 87mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/KgBhJBLwo4

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 6, 2025

He made one start before being sent back down, but got called back up within a few weeks and has made six straight starts for the Dodgers since.

The biggest knock on Sheehan has to be the brevity of his outings. He's made it through five innings in only three starts, which is not entirely his fault, as the Dodgers are handling him with care coming off surgery and having thrown no more than 68 innings in any of his professional seasons.

His stuff has looked sharp, and his 12.6% SwStr% is the best of this trio of pitchers in today's article (Henderson 12.0%, Matthews 12.3%). His fastball averages 95.7 mph on the gun, and it has elite induced vertical break (18.1 inches), while his curveball and changeup both have above-average vertical drop.

His arsenal is impressive, and I think the future is bright for Sheehan, but his workload is likely to continue to be managed. The Dodgers have already moved to a six-man rotation and could get Roki Sasaki back from injury at some point in the next month.

Verdict: Sheehan is a great short-term pickup if you need starting pitching help, but the inability to pitch deep into games lowers his ceiling as he doesn't always qualify for a win or pitch long enough to rack up big strikeout totals. He could certainly help your ratios, though, especially in good matchups. He should continue to improve and eventually have his pitch count extended a bit, but with the Dodgers managing their starters' innings so tightly, it's still unlikely he'll be able to assume a full workload.

Zebby Matthews - Minnesota Twins (17% rostered)

Fantasy Stats: 38.1 IP, 3 W, 5.17 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 48 K

Advanced Stats: 3.18 SIERA, 3.85 xERA, 28.9% K%, 6% BB%

Matthews was a dark horse to make the Twins' rotation out of camp, but ultimately, Minnesota went with Simeon Woods Richardson as their fifth starter. Zebby started the year at Triple-A, but got a four-start audition in late May due to injuries in the rotation. He was then sent back to the minors for another six weeks before getting his second shot to stick in the big league rotation on July 19. Matthews has made another four starts this time around and looks like he'll stick for the rest of the season with Chris Paddack departing via trade and both Woods Richardson and Pablo Lopez hitting the IL.

The good news with Matthews is that he's shown that he can strike out major league hitters at a high rate, while also throwing a ton of strikes and avoiding walks. His main issue has been the amount of hard contact he's allowed, specifically on his fastball. He has above-average velocity (96 mph average) on his four-seamer but just average movement on the pitch. He's a true five-pitch guy with a slider, cutter, change-up, and curveball all at his disposal, too.

His slider is getting tremendous results with a 43% whiff rate and .184 xwOBA. It's a hard slider with good downward bite, and it tunnels incredibly well with his fastball, making it very hard for hitters to pick up.

Zebby Matthews, Nasty 89mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/cBGUDvWsYH

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 30, 2025

Matthews's underlying numbers are pretty solid. His SIERA is a full two runs lower than his ERA, and his xERA suggests that he's had some bad luck with batted balls. A BABIP of .375 also backs up that theory.

He's shown some strong reverse splits so far, as he's dominated lefties (33% K%, 2.31 FIP) but has been a lot worse against righties (24% K%, 3.94 FIP). A change in his pitch mix to righties (fewer fastballs and more cutters, sliders, and curveballs) could help him improve these results, and those are the types of tweaks we expect to see young pitchers make with more big league experience and input from MLB pitching coaches who employ advanced analytics.

Verdict: Matthews has been dominant in the minors and has flashed some upside in a handful of MLB starts. He needs to get more consistent results before we can trust him entirely, but the foundation is there for him to blossom into a very effective pitcher, as he has very good stuff and above-average control. I think he's the best waiver add of the group that I featured this week.

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