MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/6/2025)

August 6, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/6/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Jackson Merrill, Ketel Marte, Josh Naylor, and Nick Kurtz.

Wednesday slates often bring early starts, and today is no exception, as we have 10 games set to start in the early or late afternoon. However, we also don't have many parks with major weather advantages for hitters, except for one game that I will be targeting in the late afternoon. Most of my targets are playing in the evening, and I'll focus more on the matchups and splits today than trying to chase that many weather angles.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/6/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, August 6:

• Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
• Nick Kurtz, Athletics
• Josh Naylor, Seattle Mariners
• Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres

Josh Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+560 FanDuel)

The one ballpark with some very hitter-friendly conditions that I want to target today is Angel Stadium, where the Angels host the Tampa Bay Rays. Shane Baz toes the rubber for the Rays, while the lefty Tyler Anderson is on the bump for the Angels.

Anderson is my target as he's been quite HR-prone this season, allowing 1.75 HR/9 and has given up five bombs in just his last two starts. The temperature in Los Angeles at gametime is going to push 90 degrees, and we have winds blowing out to right-center field around 7-8 mph.

However, there's a small wrinkle here. Anderson is a unique pitcher in that he is a lefty with reverse splits. That means LHH have hit for better average (.303 > .235) and power (.620 SLG > .407 SLG) than RHH. When we split out his HR/9, it's been 2.67 vs. LHH and 1.38 vs. RHH.

The Rays are a team that usually employs multiple platoons to maximize their depth, but the one lefty who usually sticks in the lineup against Southpaws is outfielder Josh Lowe.

This was one of the best ABs from Josh Lowe this season pic.twitter.com/zBXsu4uYxn

— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) August 2, 2025

Unlike his "brother from another mother," Brandon (they're not really brothers; Josh's actual brother is Washington first baseman Nate Lowe), Josh has shown that he can hit lefties. With the wind at his back, I like Lowe's chances of getting under a fastball or changeup from Anderson and driving it into the stands.

Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+250 DraftKings)

No weather angle here, but the Athletics just hung 16 runs on the Nationals last night, including five home runs (three from Shea Langeliers). Today, Washington turns to Cade Cavalli, who is making his 2025 debut and has made only one other MLB start in his career back in 2022.

Cavalli pitched to a 6.09 ERA in 15 Triple-A starts this season. He throws mainly fastball-curveball while mixing in a sinker and changeup. The bad news for Cavalli is that he's going to face a red-hot Athletics lineup with some elite young hitters like Nick Kurtz.

No one has been better for the Athletics against RHP than Kurtz, who has posted a .351/.444/.749 slash line with an elite .398 ISO and .494 wOBA. 19 of his 23 home runs have come off righties, and he's drilled both fastballs and breaking balls quite well when you dig a little deeper into his batted ball metrics.

It's been a bit of a dry spell for Kurtz in terms of home runs (he hasn't hit one since he hit four in one game against the Astros on July 25), but he's still making quality contact and hitting the ball extremely hard. I give Kurtz the advantage in this matchup between these two youngsters, and you have to like his chances against a tired Washington bullpen after Cavalli leaves the game as well.

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Josh Naylor OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+560 FanDuel)

Let's get back to some very appealing odds here and try to see if we can ride a hot bat at the same time. Naylor hit his second dinger as a member of the Mariners last night, finishing 2-3 at the plate while also drawing a walk, scoring three runs, and stealing two bases!

Tonight, he and the rest of this dangerous Seattle lineup will face right-handed Chicago starter Jonathan Cannon, who has a fly-ball tendency (42.4%) and HR problem (1.53 HR/9).

Give Josh Naylor the trident! 🔱 pic.twitter.com/KtqHLGgQTW

— MLB (@MLB) August 6, 2025

Cannon has traditional splits, allowing lefties to slug 100 points better (.527 SLG > .426 SLG) than righties. Naylor's homer last night came off a lefty, but nine of his 13 bombs this season have come off RHP as he's posted a very respectable .451 SLG and 129 wRC+ against righties.

Ketel Marte OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 FanDuel)

The last two home run props come from the same game as the Padres face the Diamondbacks in Arizona. The roof will be on in Arizona as it's supposed to be 112 degrees there at game time (yikes!), so no weather advantage here. However, we have two veteran pitchers who have struggled with the long ball opposing each other as Arizona turns to Anthony DeSclafani and Nestor Cortes makes his Padres debut.

"Nasty Nestor" has been quite nasty so far in 2025, but not in a good way! He made just two starts for the Brewers before heading to the IL with elbow trouble. In one of those starts, he gave up five home runs to his former team, the New York Yankees, in just two innings. Having pitched just eight innings on the season, that's led to a comical 5.63 HR/9 mark and 17.4% barrel rate.

Those numbers will certainly correct a bit, but his run as an effective MLB pitcher may be nearing an end, too. Cortes has relied on a lot of funky arm angles and odd deliveries to mess with hitters' timing and ability to pick up the ball, but he has to do that to make up for rather lackluster stuff. And when he's off, we've seen him get blown up.

Ketel Marte - Arizona Diamondbacks (21)
pic.twitter.com/5kGU01cFJm

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) August 3, 2025

I love Marte against lefties, even if he hasn't been as dominant this year as in years past. With Cortes being a fly-ball pitcher and Marte owning elite career splits against lefties, I think this is a very fair price. If Marte can't leave the yard against Cortes, he will have the ability to spin around to the left side against any right-handed relievers, too.

Jackson Merrill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel)

Our last HR prop comes on the other side of this game, as I like the left-handed Padre bats against the pitcher we've come to know as "Disco" - aka - DeSclafani. Disco has always struggled with lefties during his career, and this year is no different.

Against Southpaws, Disco has just a 14% K% and 6.23 FIP. He's allowed six home runs this season across just 25.2 IP as both a reliever and starter. Since moving into the rotation, he has an 11.37 ERA over his first two starts. He's not out there on his merit right now; he's out there to eat some innings for an Arizona team that sold at the deadline, trading away Merrill Kelly to the Rangers.

Jackson Merrill is starting to come on strong here late in the season, after what's been a somewhat underwhelming start to his sophomore campaign. He only has eight home runs this season, but don't sleep on his power. I love the matchup for him here against DeSclafani and a pretty bad Arizona bullpen.

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