Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Part 12

July 26, 2025

Thunder Dan Palyo breaks down four more starting pitchers to see which of them can finish the season strong and carry your fantasy baseball team to a championship.

The last week of July might see others turn their attention to the NFL, but I'm here to ride out baseball season until the end. Let those NFL-only fans worry about training camp gossip; we die-hard fantasy baseball truthers are just strapping in for the stretch run!

After some different formats to this piece over the last few weeks, we are back to the standard layout with four pitchers whom I want to dig deeper into, in order to see if they can help us win a fantasy baseball championship. This week, I spotlight four pitchers who have a much smaller sample size of innings than starters who have been in the rotation all season for one reason or another. It's a good combination of veterans and youngsters!

Which of these pitchers are true breakouts whom we can trust, and which pitchers, if any, are fakeouts whom we should be skeptical of relying on? Here goes nothing, let's dive into the analysis!

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Brandon Woodruff - Milwaukee Brewers

Fantasy Stats: 16.1 IP, 2 W, 1.65 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 23 K

Advanced Stats: 1.72 SIERA, 2.23 xERA, 39% K%, 0% BB%

In the preseason, I touted Woodruff as a major bounce-back candidate. That prediction was looking pretty grim as his return to the rotation kept getting delayed by setbacks, but when Woody finally did return earlier this month, he wasted no time re-establishing himself as a dominant presence.

I mean, I am not sure you could have scripted his return any better if this were a feel-good Disney movie. Heck, I am pretty sure that Woody himself would not have told you he'd have an ERA under 2.00 and a 39% K-BB% through 16 innings if you had asked him before he came back.

So let's cut right to the chase, is this level of success sustainable? The easy answer is "of course not," as not many pitchers in the league are capable of doing this for even half a season. However, a more useful question might be "where does Woodruff finish the season," in terms of his ratios?

The first thing I have noticed with Woody has been the elite control. It's not just the fact that he hasn't walked a hitter yet; it has to do with how perfectly he's been locating his pitches.

Brandon Woodruff, Painted 95mph Two Seamer. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/hQWjkKiV5m

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 22, 2025

Woody currently has a Location+ rating of 115, which would be the best mark in baseball among qualified starters by two points. That's pretty darn impressive and has helped him mask some other deficiencies in his arsenal.

Yep, it's time to get a little negative and pick apart this perfect start (sorry, it's my job). If we are leaning into the Location+ metric, then I should also point out that Woody's Stuff+ rating is just 97. That's not terrible, but it's below average (100) and would rank 34th among qualified starters along with guys like Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson, Robbie Ray, and Sonny Gray.

The first thing I have to point out is that Woody's fastball and sinker velocities are down over two mph each. He's been living at 92-93 mph on both, while he was pumping 95-96 mph back in 2023. We see plenty of pitchers have success with average velocity, but not too many of them dominate like Woody is doing.

The good news is that he is getting whiffs (13.1% SwStr%), but his 36.2% CSW% is very likely to regress. That's a lot of called strikes. His 39% K% is much more likely to settle in around 26-28%, which is still really good and just a tick below his career average of 29%.

He's added a cutter to his pitch mix, ditching his old hard slider, and has been using it and his changeup as his top two "change of pace" pitches off his fastballs. Meanwhile, he's thrown only a handful of curveballs and sweepers at lower velocities.

The cutter has been the one pitch that has been hit very hard, with opponents slugging .667 against it with a .590 wOBA. As far as the batted ball data, all of his pitches are outperforming their expected stats, but even the expected stats are very good (just not elite).

Verdict: Woody has been simply incredible through three starts. There was even a rumor floated recently that the Brewers were considering trading him, which I think made some sense in terms of a sell-high moment, but not for a team that is contending for a division title.

If you held Woodruff all those months, enjoy the rewards of your stash. It wouldn't hurt to float some offers for other big-name players, but even with some regression, Woodruff is perfectly capable of putting up solid numbers the rest of the way. He's a savvy veteran who can make his new arsenal work even with some reduced velocity. He should pile up wins, and I would expect his ERA to settle around 3.00 with a 1.0 WHIP when it's all said and done.

Trevor Rogers - Baltimore Orioles

Fantasy Stats: 41.1 IP, 3 W, 1.74 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 35 K

Advanced Stats: 3.90 SIERA, 3.20 xERA, 21.9% K%, 7.5% BB%

Let's keep the "feel-good" stories coming! As Kyle Stowers was crushing home runs in April and May, it appeared that the Orioles had lost their trade with Miami last season, as Baltimore had sent the promising outfielder and Connor Norby to Miami for the veteran lefty Rogers.

While Stowers does look like the real deal, Rogers has returned from the dead to prove that he was worth the price that Baltimore paid. It's just a shame that the team had already buried itself in the standings this season before Rogers could return from injury.

But we aren't here to analyze the real-life implications of that trade; this is an article about fantasy baseball after all.

Let's start with the good stuff! Rogers has a healthy GB% of 51% and perfectly acceptable strikeout and walk numbers (both right around league average). He's limiting hard contact (just a 5.4% Barrel%) and is doing a great job of limiting home runs (0.44 HR/9).

He's also eating innings like a champ. He's gone at least six innings in five of his seven starts.

Trevor Rogers, Painted 77mph Back Door Sweeper. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/9AK5oCYtTL

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 20, 2025

I used this strikeout tweet to illustrate the same principle that I did with Woodruff. Rogers is nibbling the corners successfully and sequencing his pitches quite well. But his Location+ of 104 is helping to carry him despite some pretty ordinary "stuff" (Stuff+ rating of just 92).

One good sign for Rogers, however, is that his velocity is back up to where it was in 2023, as his fastball is averaging 93.4 mph. Last year, we saw this dip to just 91.9 mph, so a 1.5 mph improvement is a great sign and a significant upgrade to his arsenal.

The two big stats that scream regression here are the BABIP (.200) and LOB% (84.8%). That's why we are seeing his ERA indicators both predict an ERA closer to 4.00.

Verdict: It's awesome to see Rogers back and pitching at a high level. He could certainly keep outperforming his underlying stats, but not to the extent that he is right now. I think he's worth rostering in fantasy leagues, but managers should temper their expectations a bit, as there are likely some bumpy starts ahead against good competition. He's never going to be a big strikeout pitcher, but he can eat innings and provide some useful ratios.

Chase Burns - Cincinnati Reds

Fantasy Stats: 21.2 IP, 0 W, 6.65 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 35 K

Advanced Stats: 3.08 SIERA, 4.32 xERA, 35% K%, 11% BB%

The Reds' rookie reminds me a lot of another Cincy pitcher who has been on the shelf for the last several months - Hunter Greene.

Much like Greene, Burns has come out throwing smoke, blowing his four-seam fastball past hitters with an average velocity of 98 mph and an average implied vertical break of 18.3 inches that makes it seem even faster.

His slider checks in at 90 mph and has very good movement with 32.5 inches of vertical drop and 5.3 inches of glove-side run. It's been a tough pitch for hitters to pick up, as it carries a 44.4% Whiff%.

So the good news is that Burns has been able to whiff hitters at an elite rate with a 35% K% through his first five starts. His 13.6% SwStr% is well above average and proof that he can probably sustain a K% around 29-30% over a larger sample size of innings.

The bad news for Burns has been the walks (11% BB%) and the long ball (1.66 HR/9). I do think he is very likely to see some positive regression to his ERA based on his underlying metrics, but the 4.32 xERA highlights the concerns with hard contact.

Now, to be completely fair, Burns's numbers are very skewed right now because he lasted just one-third of an inning against Boston in his second pro start and allowed five earned runs. It appeared that he was tipping his pitches in that outing, and the Red Sox took full advantage of the youngster, knocking him out early.

He's been much better in three of his other four starts, holding the Yankees to three earned runs, the Phillies to just one, and the Rockies to two.

The biggest concern for the long-term is that he's a two-pitch guy, and we've seen that even the best young fireballers have found out the hard way (Greene included) that you need a third pitch to be good at the MLB level.

Verdict: Burns should see his ERA drop over time, but pitching in Cincinnati is also a recipe for home runs allowed when you throw as hard as he does. The K% should drop a bit, but Burns could be a very solid starter for the remainder of the season if he can cut down the walks and avoid those big innings.

Joey Cantillo - Cleveland Guardians

Fantasy Stats: 46 IP, 2 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 59 K

Advanced Stats: 3.50 SIERA, 3.90 xERA, 29.5% K%, 12% BB%

Okay, for our last pitcher, we dive deep into the waiver wire for a pitcher who is rostered in just 9% of Yahoo leagues. Cantillo isn't a true rookie like Burns, as he debuted for Cleveland last season and tossed 38 innings to a 4.89 ERA.

But he's made four starts for Cleveland this season after starting in the bullpen, and has caught my attention with his strikeout ability.

Cantillo's 29.5% K% is backed by a 12.2% SwStr% and an elite 76.9% Z-Contact%, so it's not entirely fluky. He had a 27% K% last season, too, so we are now approaching about 86 MLB innings with a borderline-elite strikeout rate.

Joey Cantillo, Nasty 77mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/iN13MVDfww

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 22, 2025

Cantillo features a pretty average fastball at 92 mph, but has a big gap in velocity between his four-seamer and both his changeup (78 mph) and curveball (76.6 mph). He has an over-the-top delivery at a 54-degree arm slot that allows him to generate a ton of top-spin on his 12-6 curveball that drops 66 inches vertically. That's one of the biggest curveballs in the major leagues, and it's been incredibly effective, holding hitters to a .103 average and .165 SLG%.

The are two big red flags here, however. First of all, his fastball is completely ordinary and is getting obliterated to the tune of a .638 SLG and .451 wOBA. The other issue is the walks, as Cantillo has a 12% BB% and a very ugly 38% Ball%.

We saw him put up a 9% BB% last season, and at this point, I'd take that from him even though it's still below average. Not too many guys can sustain success with such a massive walk rate, especially not a guy whose primary pitch gets hit that hard.

Verdict: While Cantillo is an intriguing prospect, he has some major flaws, and you can probably leave him on the wire for now. Cleveland could get Shane Bieber back in their rotation, and Cantillo would be the first guy to get kicked back to the bullpen. He does make for an interesting streamer in the short term if he draws a really good matchup.

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