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Andy looks at three starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers off to hot starts in 2025. Are Mitch Keller, Noah Cameron, and Landen Roupp for real?
Even though we are just two months into the fantasy baseball season, we have already seen several starting pitchers begin to take the next step in their development.
In this piece, we will do a deep dive on three pitchers who have surprised many through the early part of the campaign. Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates has been an established major league pitcher over the past few seasons, but has begun to show higher upside. Noah Cameron of the Kansas City Royals earned a spot in the rotation with Cole Ragans (groin) and Seth Lugo (finger) injured. Lastly, Landen Roupp broke camp with the starting rotation and has continued to show steady growth.
Should fantasy managers run to the waiver wire to add these breakout pitchers? Or is their breakout a fake-out? Let's dive in!
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Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
2025 Stats: 64 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.93 SIERA, 1.30 WHIP, 20.1% K%
38% Rostered
Mitch Keller has been a stable part of the Pittsburgh rotation since the 2021 season (after debuting in 2019). Over the past four seasons, Keller's fantasy value came primarily from his ability to log a hefty total of innings, especially in points leagues.
From 2021 through 2024, Keller averaged 158 innings per season and held an overall 4.46 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP. During this stint, he logged 632 innings and posted a 606:214 K:BB.
However, through his first 64 innings of the 2025 season, the right-hander is on pace to enjoy his best MLB season. He has held a strong 3.66 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. Across this stint, Keller has struck out 55 batters and shown excellent control, allowing walks at a 6.2% rate, which places him in the 78th percentile.
What has Keller done to enjoy the impressive start?
The primary change Keller has put into action this season is lowering his reliance on his sinker and increasing his usage of his sweeper and slider. In 2024, his sinker was his second-most-used pitch; however, through the early part of 2025, Keller has deployed this pitch just 14.4% of the time, which is the fourth most.
Instead, Keller has opted to use his sweeper and slider to pair with his four-seamer. His sweeper (second-most-used pitch, 18.6% used) has generated a stellar .255 xSLG with a .200 xwOBA. This pitch found similar success during the 2024 season (.303 xSLG, .263 xSLG), but seeing it remain productive when deployed more often is a great sign.
Keller's third-most-used pitch, his slider (15.3% used), has not found much success in comparison to his sweeper. While this pitch has been his primary strikeout pitch (30.5% whiff rate), it carries an uninspiring .345 xBA and a .480 xSLG.
Mitch Keller, Wicked 90mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/KYNsFYLzfY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 7, 2025
His primary pitch, his fastball, has taken a slight step back in comparison to 2024. It currently holds a .372 xwOBA, a nearly 50-point jump from the .326 xwOBA.
Given the modest metrics his fastball and slider hold, Keller currently sits in the 40th percentile in xERA (4.10 xERA) and 16th percentile (xBA), which suggests regression is coming.
Verdict: While Keller will provide value in points formats given his ability to log a high total of innings, his metrics suggest regression will come. Fantasy managers should expect the 29-year-old to finish the season with a similar 4.25 ERA he held during the 2024 campaign.
Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals
2025 Stats: 19 1/3 IP, 0.93 ERA, 4.33 SIERA, 0.67 WHIP, 19.7% K%
30% Rostered
The 25-year-old southpaw made his MLB debut on April 30 and nearly tossed a no-hitter as he allowed just one hit across 6 1/3 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. In this outing, Cameron struck out three batters and served up five free passes. However, after this outing, the Royals opted to option their top southpaw back to Triple-A.
Last week, the Royals placed both Ragans and Lugo on the 15-day injured list, which opened a spot for Cameron. Since returning to the majors, Cameron has logged 13 innings (two starts) and held an impressive 1.38 ERA with a 0.54 WHIP. He struck out 11 batters and showed strong command of his pitches, allowing just one walk.
Through 87 career innings at Triple-A Omaha, Cameron has found success as well, logging a 2.69 ERA with a stellar 1.06 WHIP. During this stretch, he showed solid strikeout potential as well, tallying 100 while serving up just 24 free passes.
Should fantasy managers be buying into the hype?
Cameron has deployed his fastball 31.0% of the time, nearly 10 points higher than his second-most-used pitch. While this pitch has generated an impressive .136 BA and a .301 wOBA, it carries underwhelming metrics. According to Statcast, it has generated a much higher .276 xBA and a .407 xwOBA.
His second-most-used pitch, his changeup (19.4% use rate), has posted a near-perfect .063 SLG and a .243 wOBA, which is significantly lower than the underlying .374 xSLG and .243 xwOBA. However, even the underlying metrics for this pitch are quite impressive.
Lastly, his slider (third-most-used pitch) has been excellent, generating a high 47.8% whiff rate with a .107 xwOBA.
Noah Cameron, Dirty 82mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/qkTk7FGihV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 18, 2025
Verdict: Sitting in the 83rd and 85th percentiles in xERA and xBA, respectively, suggests Cameron should continue to remain a valuable pitcher in standard formats. He has two strong putaway pitches in his changeup and slider that should balance out the regression that is expected on his fastball.
If available in your league, he should be a top pitcher target this weekend. However, fantasy managers in shallow formats should not blow their FAAB budget on Cameron as he may not remain in the rotation once Ragans and Lugo return.
Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants
2025 Stats: 52 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.92 SIERA, 1.40 WHIP, 21.6% K%
18% Rostered
The final pitcher we will analyze this week is Landen Roupp of the San Francisco Giants. Roupp made his MLB debut last summer but spent most of his time pitching out of the bullpen. Across 50 1/3 innings of work (23 appearances, four starts), Roupp held a 3.58 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. He tallied 47 punchouts and held a high 12.0% walk rate.
However, operating as a full-time starter in 2025, the right-hander has begun to take the next step in his development. Through 52 frames (10 starts), Roupp has held a 3.63 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP. He has struck out batters at a 21.6% rate (nearly identical to the 21.7% rate he posted last season) and has been able to lower his walk rate significantly to a 7.9% rate.
Like last year, Roupp has continued to rely primarily on two pitches, his sinker and curveball. This season, he has deployed these two pitches 81% of the time.
He has allowed just one home run with his sinker and has generated a strong .388 xSLG with a .325 xwOBA. Both of these metrics are lower than the .452 SLG and .373 wOBA it currently carries, which suggests he could even see some positive regression in this department.
His curveball has been his primary strikeout pitch, boasting a 41.8% whiff rate. This pitch has also been elite at inducing soft contact, generating a .341 xSLG with a .268 xwOBA. Last season, his curveball generated a lower 33.5% whiff rate.
Landen Roupp, Filthy 76mph Curveball...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/l2MYaG6TAo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 18, 2025
Over his last two starts, Roupp has been one of the most productive pitchers in the sport, posting back-to-back six-inning shutouts while posting an overall 1.17 WHIP.
Verdict: Given his impressive start, fantasy managers should expect Roupp to remain in the San Francisco rotation going forward. The 26-year-old has two strong pitches that have both done well in limiting hard contact and generating solid whiff rates. He currently sits in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate and 75th percentile in ground-ball rate, which are strong indicators that the breakout could be legit.
Fantasy managers needing a strong SP4 with upside should target Roupp on waivers this weekend.
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