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Corbin Young examines several fantasy baseball pitcher risers and sleepers displaying changes in their pitch mix, movement, and velocity heading into Week 7 (2025).
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly "Starting Pitcher Arsenal Changes" article series for Week 7 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. We researched 18 starting pitchers so far, with three more in this column, one of which came from a reader's suggestion. Today's article will discuss a few starting pitchers who made actionable adjustments, like a release point change or a new pitch, and whether they matter moving forward.
For those new to this column, we cover a few starting pitchers and their arsenal changes via pitch mix, velocity, and movement each week. Since it's early, we're looking for new pitches, velocity, and movement changes. When we find significant release point shifts, it can potentially impact their movement profiles in 2025.
Pitchers can make notable changes in smaller samples, so let's see if we can find something with these starting pitchers. Statcast introduced pitch percentage splits by left- or right-handed batters, which adds a nice layer to compare quickly to past seasons. Let's look through my process of examining starting pitchers and their arsenals. Reach out to me on X if you have a pitcher and have questions about it. Thank you for reading!
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Grant Holmes' Slider and Curveball Are Dropping More
Holmes was the top breakout candidate for many after having success as a reliever and a starter. The slider and curveball elicited a swinging strike rate of 22-23 percent in 2024, giving hope for him having two breakers to attack hitters. Theoretically, pitches with more downward movement generate whiffs.
Holmes' slider and curveball added 3-4 inches of downward movement in 2025 compared to last season. Both breaking balls moved toward the glove side an insignificant amount more (1-1.5 inches). Unfortunately, Holmes' slider and curveball lost whiffs.
That's evident by an 18.6 percent swinging strike rate via the slider and 10.7 percent against the curveball. With the decline, hitters haven't chased as often, having elite chase rates via the slider (45.7 percent) and curveball (48.9 percent). So, what changed?
Sometimes, pitchers struggle to locate and command pitches. However, the slider and curveball haven't changed much location-wise since 2024.
Maybe hitters have been patient with the breaking balls, knowing the slider and curveball drop below the zone to elicit whiffs. That's somewhat evident by the swing rates declining by 6-7 percentage points against the slider and curveball in 2025.
Holmes is Throwing Fewer Curveballs to Right-Handed Hitters
Holmes lowered his curveball usage against right-handed hitters in 2025, throwing it 5.7 percent of the time from 14.6 percent (2024). The results were decent in 2024, but right-handed hitters have been crushing the curveball (.349 wOBA, .415 xwOBA).
However, we'll note that the curveball results against righties were noisy. That's especially true considering the curveball results in a negative 56-degree launch angle versus righties. For context, groundballs would be batted ball events with a launch angle below 10 degrees.
Holmes traded fewer curveballs for more four-seamers, a six percentage point jump in 2025. It seems counterintuitive because Holmes' four-seamer allows a whopping .674 wOBA (.480 xwOBA) versus righties.
That's screaming at us that Holmes needs to make a pitch mix change against right-handed hitters or not use it as his putaway pitch. Since the four-seam has a mediocre movement profile, he'll need to command it well, or hitters will continue teeing off.
The four-seam has been one of his better pitches against lefties (.238 wOBA, .289 xwOBA). That tells us it could be related to his four-seam locations versus same-handed hitters.
Meanwhile, Holmes' curveball, slider, and cutter have been his best pitches against left-handed hitters. Sometimes, pitchers who rely on four-seamers and breaking pitches struggle against opposite-handed hitters. Thankfully, that hasn't been the case for Holmes yet.
Holmes' Improved Cutter Locations
Last season, Holmes' cutter had brutal results against lefties (.441 wOBA, .270 xwOBA). However, the expected results hinted at regression on a pitch he used 8.1 percent of the time versus left-handed hitters. So, what changed?
The cutter movement hasn't changed much, so maybe it's the location change. In 2024, Holmes' cutter was thrown high and inside or low and inside to left-handed hitters over 21 percent of the time. Holmes still locates the cutter inside toward left-handed hitters, though it's lower in the zone.
We're still dealing with uber-small samples of under 100 cutters combined across both seasons versus lefties, so it could be noisy. Holmes might use the cutter as a harder version of the slower slider to generate weak contact inside on the hands of lefties.
Summary
There appears to be a fixable change for Holmes, though seeing him lose whiffs via the curveball and slider concerns us. Theoretically, the slider and curveball swinging strike rates should return to 2024 levels since both pitches added downward movement. Holmes' ball rate is over six percentage points higher than in 2024 (32 percent), aligning with the control problems. Hold or buy Holmes because there are more pieces to like than fade.
Ryan Gusto's Elite Four-Seam IVB
Spencer Arrighetti made some noise last season, and it's Gusto this year. Though induced vertical break (IVB) isn't everything, Gusto's four-seamer has elite levels of IVB at 19-20 inches. Typically, a four-seamer with elite IVB translates into whiffs. That's the case with Gusto's four-seam, which elicits an arsenal-best 16.3 percent swinging strike rate.
We've learned that IVB, like any other metric, should be viewed with context. One metric that matters with four-seam IVB involves the extension and release points. Gusto's extension is mediocre, though he throws from a high arm angle. One pitcher who uses a higher arm angle and generates elite levels of IVB, yet doesn't have high-end extension, would be Bryce Miller and his four-seam.
Gusto locates the four-seam higher in the zone, especially toward the arm side, high and tight toward right-handed hitters. That explains Gusto's four-seam being most effective versus righties, evidenced by the .097 wOBA (.162 xwOBA).
Unfortunately, the four-seam remains the only quality offering against righties. However, Gusto's sinker (.483 wOBA, .294 xwOBA) and curveball (.424 wOBA, .202 xwOBA) suggest better results. That might tell us Gusto should throw the sinker and curveball more often against right-handed hitters beyond the 6-8 percent usage rates.
Gusto's Curveball and Changeup
We'll briefly discuss Gusto's curveball and changeup because the four-seam highlights the arsenal. The curveball possesses high-end levels of downward movement, though it hasn't translated into more whiffs, with a 12 percent swinging strike rate. However, we can envision a better swinging strike rate for the curveball since hitters have been chasing it outside the zone nearly 45 percent of the time (44.8 percent).
Though Gusto's curveball performs better against right-handed hitters, his changeup deserves intrigue against lefties. That's mostly because Gusto's changeup performed the best against left-handed hitters, evidenced by a .000 wOBA (.058 xwOBA). Like the four-seamers against righties, Gusto's changeup seems to be his only reliable option in the early 2025 sample.
Gusto's changeup lacks the depth we like, but it has nearly 16 inches of arm-side fade. That should help the changeup allow weak contact, especially when it runs away from left-handed hitters.
Summary
With Lance McCullers Jr. back in the Astros rotation, Gusto might only be called upon as a reliever or in a spot start. When Arrighetti returns, Gusto's opportunities become even muddier, though there's a chance Ronel Blanco or Hayden Wesneski struggle to a point where Gusto earns another chance. The stuff for Gusto intrigues us, so we'll want to put him on the watch list.
Jordan Hicks' Sinker Velocity Bounced Back
The outcomes for Hicks should regress, but it might take a while for that to occur. Hicks saw an expected velocity dip in 2024, his first season primarily as a starting pitcher. The velocity rose closer to his 2023 numbers, notably via the sinker, four-seam, and splitter.
Hicks' sinker movement profile shifted between 2023 and 2024, aligning with the velocity differences. He pounds the zone with the sinker, with a zone rate of 65 percent in 2025, significantly higher than the past two seasons, including 2024 (62 percent). That seems like a concerted effort as he transitioned to a starting pitcher.
The sinker remains a pitch that aims to generate weak contact, especially against right-handed hitters. He consolidated his arsenal versus same-handed hitters with sinkers (56.4 percent) and sweepers (36 percent), similar to his 2023 usage rates.
Hicks' Arm Angle Has Fluctuated
Hick had a career-low arm angle (29 degrees) in 2024, with it raising to 34 degrees in 2025. He maintained his vertical release point around 5.6 feet but brought his horizontal release point closer to his midline by nearly two inches (1.8). That once again aligns with the theme of 2025 being somewhat between 2023 and 2024.
With the different arm angles, one could theorize about movement profile changes that have occurred. However, the velocity and arm angle changes combined contribute to the movement changes. With Hicks' arm angle lending itself toward more induced horizontal movement, it sometimes leads to issues against opposite-handed hitters.
Hicks used splitters 25.4 percent of the time in 2024, his second-most-thrown pitch to left-handed hitters. The splitter was his best offering, resulting in a .193 wOBA (.266 xwOBA) and 20 percent SwK. He dropped the splitter usage to his least-used offering, throwing it 10.2 percent of the time in 2025 versus lefties.
Though Hicks' splitter has been effective still in 2025 (.268 wOBA, .195 xwOBA), the four-seamer performed the best (.112 wOBA, .261 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters. His four-seamer has been a mixed bag throughout his career, and the results might be fluky.
Summary
Hicks' sweeper bounced back to generate the most whiffs (19.5 percent SwK) in 2025, with the splitter in second (14.3 percent). That's similar to his swinging strike rates in 2023, though the sweeper (15.1 percent SwK) and splitter (20.9 percent SwK) swapped places in 2024. Hicks has an xERA of 3.54, over two runs better than his actual ERA. The skills and pitch movement look similar to 2023, so bench and hold him in deeper formats.
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