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Drake Baldwin's fantasy baseball prospect outlook, bust potential for dynasty leagues. Matt uses his custom suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools.
A spring training injury to incumbent starting catcher Sean Murphy opened a door for Drake Baldwin to not just make the Braves' 2025 Opening Day roster but also serve as the primary backstop until Murphy returned in mid to late April.
In this article, we will first trace the evolution of Baldwin's offensive plate profile since his 2020 freshman season at NCAA Division 1 (D1) Missouri State University. Then we will analyze his offensive running outcomes while a pro.
How should dynasty and other fantasy baseball players view Baldwin beyond his ongoing 2025 MLB debut? Let's take a look and figure it out.
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Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.
Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.
Overall Rating and Batted Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.
To better understand the Path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes match real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is the Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed, offensive running technique, and acumen.
The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.
Prospect Analysis: Drake Baldwin
Evolution of College Plate Profile
Baldwin played parts of two summers of wood-bat collegiate Northwoods League baseball between his three collegiate seasons at Missouri State.
About all that stood out positively in his pandemic-shortened 2020 D1 debut and subsequent brief summer stint was that he hardly ever struck out and seldom popped up on the infield. K Avoid stayed above plus during both large-sample 2021 stints as BB+HBP rose versus 2020 to twice the rate, just shy of plus. Baldwin added some loft (GB Avoid, OFFB) to the 2021 batted ball profiles and twice hit many more LD versus 2020, but was only able to translate the improved hit fundamentals into actual hits (AVG) in the summer league.
Baldwin more fully carried the 2021 summer batted ball profile and batted ball outcomes gains over to his 2022 D1 draft-eligible season despite losing some of his formerly stout IFFB Avoid. He produced better than half plus (74) AVG and even almost plus (82) ISO on batted balls despite only producing OFFB and Pull OFFB at circa half minus rates. Both BB+HBP and K Avoid topped plus.
The lefthanded batter posted backwards platoon splits as he rated better Overall versus Same-Handed Pitchers than he did versus opposite-handed pitchers at all stops that followed the 2020 freshman season. What also held back his hits (AVG) per batted ball as a collegian was too many pull-third groundballs. Otherwise, his quality of contact was reasonably loud, as evidenced by ISO Ratings that often exceeded expectations for the corresponding OFFB and Pull OFFB Ratings.
Collegiate catching statistics pegged Baldwin as a good to better receiver who was an accurate but weaker-armed thrower.
The Braves selected Baldwin in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft as a catch-over-throw backstop with potential ahead to post well beyond plus non-batted-ball outcomes and perhaps half plus hits and extra bases per batted ball.
Evolution of Pro Plate Profile
Baldwin's post-draft debut encompassed ten tune-up plate trips with the Braves' rookie Florida Complex League squad, then another 101 PA with the Low-A affiliate. An overload of green above plus marks in the table below conveys that the full debut fundamentals were stellar, even with K Avoid down versus D1 to under half plus.
What Baldwin did not do so well in the pro debut was convert those hit fundamentals more fully into AVG. Otherwise, he could only muster a single-digit ISO Rating, despite hitting far more OFFB and Pull OFFB relative to his peers than he had before. Were we looking at a future major leaguer with star power if the absent hits and extra bases could be located ahead?
Baldwin would move up to the High-A affiliate to take his first 405 PA of 2023. Non-batted-ball results stayed up with K Avoid improving versus the pro debut. But Batted Ball Profile fell back to Earth and better resembled the more recent collegiate ones, only without the LD he so sorely needed to produce more AVG on Batted Balls. An ISO Rating of 79 in High-A was slightly high for the 74 OFFB and 54 Pull OFFB combo.
A 59 PA stop in Double-A had BB+HBP and Batted Ball Profile in sharper decline before a 3-game late September finale with the Triple-A affiliate.
A 217 PA return to AA to open 2024 had Batted Ball Profile down still more versus 2023 to half minus owing to shortages of LD, IFFB Avoid, Pull GB Avoid, and Pull OFFB. BB+HBP was also subpar as before, as during Double-A play in 2023. 2024 Double-A AVG and ISO Ratings were only in the range of half to full minus.
The next 334 PA in Triple-A featured the return of BB+HBP to plus territory and an improved LD + IFFB Avoid duo that produced almost half plus AVG on batted balls. He struggled to loft the baseball per single-digit GB Avoid and OFFB Ratings but produced a decent amount (45) of ISO despite fewer OFFB and Pull OFFB. By this point in his pro career, the lefthanded batter had always rated better Overall versus Same-Handed Pitchers than versus opposite-handed pitchers.
But Baldwin's 2024 work was not done as an Arizona Fall League stint would beget 62 more plate trips. While there, he posted comparable fundamentals to those he had during one or both of his 2024 MiLB stops, with BB+HBP and LD rates rather down and Pull OFFB rates up.
Baldwin produced a relative lot of hits (AVG) in Arizona for such a low LD Rating, but relatively few extra bases (ISO) for a slightly above-average Pull OFFB Rating.
The Murphy injury got Baldwin a longer look in 2025 MLB Spring Training games. A combo of 77 BB+HBP and 96 K Avoid Ratings cast Baldwin as ready to fill a plate discipline pest role in regular season play. But a 1st percentile low-launch Batted Ball Profile that was woefully short on LD, IFFB Avoid, and Pull GB Avoid made it unlikelier that Baldwin would generate much in the way of impactful contact while filling in as the April MLB starting catcher.
Pro defensive metrics continued to reflect a receiver-over-thrower bias with accuracy of throwing deteriorating some versus college and further hurting that he was easier to steal on to begin with.
Evolution of Pro Offensive Running
Baldwin 2022 debuted with a 21 Offensive Running Rating. He has since posted a 13 over three stops in 2023, an 11 over two in 2024, and finally a 13 over 69 events in the 2024 Arizona Fall League.
We can safely conclude that the 6-foot-1, 225-pound backstop is a less-than-minus offensive runner on an all-around basis, as Batter ratings have subtly risen since 2022, while Baserunner ratings have gradually fallen.
Fantasy Focus
To the very good, Baldwin has a long track record of higher success at non-batted-ball outcomes and, more so, strikeout avoidance. Any declines in walks plus hit-by-pitch frequencies at a particular level have generally rebounded in shorter order. From this standpoint and per his most recent MLB spring game marks, Baldwin already qualifies as a viable MLB plate pest who can work deeper counts and put the ball in play relatively often.
More so than being blocked from playing time by Murphy or subpar throwing, what limits Baldwin to part-time MLB catcher status now are batted balls. His batted ball profile has descended in the direction of a very low-launch one since first landing in Double-A during 2023. So many groundballs, and relatively many pull-third groundballs, are not good recipes for such a slow left-handed batter to reach first base semi-regularly. He must hit a larger frequency of line drives beyond maintaining infield flyball avoidance, to eventually break even at hits on batted balls in MLB.
While Baldwin has good bat speed and is capable of generating higher exit velocities on batted balls from time to time, fewer outfield flyballs and especially pull-third outfield flyballs more directly limit producing extra bases (ISO) on batted balls. Per that and hitting so few line drives after the 2022 pro debut, Baldwin seems a more obvious case where adding loft to the swing (launch angle to the batted ball distribution) would be advisable even if such costs him some measure of avoidance of strikeouts and/or infield flyballs.
Given the reduced offensive expectations of MLB catchers today, Baldwin could pin down a full-time backstop role were he to almost break even at hits and extra bases on batted balls while maintaining his usual higher-caliber non-batted-ball outcomes. What he can least afford to do defensively at the only position he has played since 2020 is gift free bases to the relatively many successful opponent stealers or ball-in-dirt advance triers by throwing inaccurately to the covering middle infielder at second base or the third baseman.
In an injury-shrunk 2024 MLB season, incumbent Braves starting catcher Murphy sported a dreadful plate profile (72 BB+HBP/27 K Avoid/4 Batted Ball Profile; 4 AVG & 51 ISO on Batted Balls) in wake of a much stouter 2023 MLB one (94 BB+HBP/47 K Avoid/71 Batted Ball Profile; 58 AVG & 81 ISO on Batted Balls).
If Murphy hit the offensive skids again in 2025, we could see their roles reversed with Murphy becoming a defense-first co-catcher to backup who occasionally relieved Baldwin when the Braves held a tighter late lead against a club more apt to steal. If Murphy delivered plate trips more like the 2023 ones, then the Braves might prefer Baldwin to catch full-time in AAA and work to add swing loft for a few months rather than mostly idling on its MLB bench then.
Dynasty fantasy players should spot an MLB primary catcher candidate with above-average to half-plus walks, plus-to-better strikeout avoidance, and a present half to full minus batted ball profile that further limits hits and extra bases production beyond what sub-minus offensive playing speed already does. Perhaps with further pro development, the batted ball profile could more consistently produce a solid enough hit-for-average and slug-for-power combo to merit a full-time starting role with the Braves or elsewhere.
When adequately rested, this left-handed-batting catcher would not sit against left-handed starters, per a longer history of turning in better plate trips against those same-handed pitchers than he has against opposite-handed ones.
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