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RotoBaller's list of the biggest NCAA tournament upsets of all time. What are the most shocking March Madness upsets? Read the college basketball analysis.
2023: (16) Fairleigh Dickinson Def. (1) Purdue
Behind 2023 College Basketball Player of the Year, Zach Edey, the Boilermakers were one of the favorites to win the 2023 NCAA tournament. With Edey averaging 22.3 points and 12.9 rebounds per game, no one could have predicted Purdue, a 23.5-point first-round favorite, to slip up in the very first round.
Edey was able to put up 21 points on 7-of-11 shooting from the field and 7-of-10 at the free-throw line to go along with 15 rebounds, but the team made just 12 of 42 shots otherwise. Guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer combined to make just seven of their 20 field goal attempts, and Purdue’s bench only contributed five points. A bad shooting night can cause any team to be upset as Fairleigh Dickinson learned with its first-ever NCAA tournament win. This upset marked just the second time a 16-seed has knocked off a one-seed.
2018: (16) UMBC Def. (1) Virginia
Speaking of 16-seeds crushing the hopes and dreams of a one-seed, enter the 2018 first-round contest between UMBC and Virginia. The Cavaliers were the No. 1 overall national seed behind a 31-2 record and an ACC Championship (regular season and tournament). Meanwhile, UMBC boasted an impressive 24-10 record and won the American East Conference tournament to make the dance, but its only game against a ranked opponent in the regular season ended in a 103-78 loss to Arizona in November.
What makes this upset so incredible is it wasn’t even a close contest late in the game. The Retrievers were tied with Virginia at halftime before a 20-point beatdown in the second half. Virginia entered the game as a 20-point favorite yet lost by 20. How wild is that? Jairus Lyles will live in history for his 28-point performance in the first-ever win by a 16 seed in the Round of 64.
2023: (15) Princeton Def. (2) Arizona
Let’s move on to our most recent 15 vs. 2 upset. Following a 25-6 regular season and three-straight victories in the Pac-12 tournament to bring home the conference hardware, Arizona looked poised for a deep March Madness run behind forward Azuolas Tubelis and center Oumar Ballo. Ivy League champion Princeton had other ideas.
Despite Princeton shooting just 4-of-25 from three-point land and making just three total free throws, they took down the Wildcats as 14.5-point underdogs. When you look at the final team stats, it’s tough to find an edge for Princeton. However, they outscored Arizona 42-34 in the paint, which helped them erase a 14-point deficit and send the Wildcats packing. Princeton then defeated Missouri in the Round of 32 before losing to Creighton in the Sweet 16.
2022: (15) Saint Peter's Def. (2) Kentucky
John Calipari, the legendary head coach who has Final Four runs with three different schools, does not get upset in Round 1, right? Well, the Saint Peter’s Peacocks had something to say about that in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Kentucky earned a two-seed after compiling a 26-7 record that included a road win over No. 5 Kansas, who went on the win the national title.
Despite Oscar Tshiebwe’s 30-point and 16-rebound effort, Kentucky was no match for Saint Peter’s who shot 52.9% from three and made 18 of 21 free-throw attempts. Daryl Banks III (27) and reserve Doug Edert (20) led the way in scoring for the Peacocks, and overall, three-point shooting was the difference in the contest.
2021: (15) Oral Roberts Def. (2) Ohio State
Without a doubt, Oral Roberts looked like one of the weakest 15 seeds in tournament history. The Golden Eagles began the 2020-21 season with a 3-5 record and did not defeat any power-conference teams during the regular season. They were the four-seed in the Summit League conference tournament but ultimately upset South Dakota State and North Dakota State to take home the league crown. Still, they entered March Madness with just 16 wins in 26 games.
On the flip side, the Buckeyes lost four consecutive games to close the regular season but built some momentum in the Big Ten conference tournament, winning three games before falling short in the title game in overtime against Illinois. Overtime misery would continue in the Round of 64, as Oral Roberts pulled off the upset behind 59 combined points from Kevin Obanor and Max Abmas.
2016: (15) MTSU Def. (2) Michigan State
Led by head coach Tom Izzo, the Michigan State Spartans were coming off a Final Four run from 2015 heading into the 2016 NCAA Tournament. MSU spent a chunk of the 2015-16 season as the top-ranked team in the nation and ended the season on a nine-game winning streak and a Big Ten conference tournament title. The matchup with Middle Tennessee State, who did not face a ranked team all season, did not seem like a dangerous matchup. That ended up being far from the case.
MTSU would hang 90 points on the Spartans behind a well-balanced scoring attack. All five of the Blue Raiders’ starters scored at least 11 points, and the team shot 57.9% from three. That’s the recipe.
2012: (15) Norfolk State Def. (2) Missouri
Norfolk State entered the 2012 NCAA Tournament with a strong 26-9 record, but Missouri enjoyed a dominant regular season ending in a Big 12 conference tournament crown. Led by future NBA veteran Kyle O’Quinn’s 26 points and 14 rebounds, the Spartans dominated the Tigers on the boards (37-25), which made up for the fact that Missouri committed fewer turnovers, made more three-pointers, and made more free throws.
While most big March Madness upsets stem from a spectacular night of three-point shooter and winning the turnover battle, Norfolk State used good old fashioned “bully ball” to end the Tigers’ title hopes. This would be the last game Missouri played as a member of the Big 12 before joining the SEC.
2012: (15) Lehigh Def. (2) Duke
A Duke team with Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Austin Rivers, Quinn Cook, and Seth Curry can’t lose in the first round as a two-seed, right? Wrong, according to the Lehigh Mountain Hawks led by C.J. McCollum. McCollum entered the dance averaging over 20 points per game, so it was reasonable to expect him to have a nice day on the national stage. But how could anyone have seen a Patriot League team defeat Coach K in the Round of 64?
Behind McCollum’s 30 points on nine field goals and 10 free throws made, and Duke’s abysmal 23.1% three-point shooting, the Mountain Hawks shocked Duke as 27.5-point underdogs.
2001: (15) Hampton Def. (2) Iowa State
Led by future 11-year NBA veteran Jamaal Tinsley, the Cyclones had title aspirations as they entered the 2001 NCAA Tournament with a 25-5 record, including a 13-3 record in Big 12 play. The 13-point loss to Baylor in their opening game of the Big 12 tournament could have been seen as foreshadowing, but Iowa State was still obviously a heavy favorite over Hampton.
Tinsley shot just 4-for-11, and no Cyclone player scored more than 10 points. Despite Iowa State winning the rebound battle and shooting a higher percentage from the floor, its 17 turnovers and 19 fouls proved the be the difference in the contest. Hampton’s Travis Williams led all scorers with just 16 points.
1997: (15) Coppin State Def. (2) South Carolina
In 1997, Coppin State became the first No. 15 seed to earn a double-digit victory over a No. 2 seed. This seemed improbable after the Eagles began the 1996-97 campaign with a 4-7 record, but they held the line and won 18 of the next 19 games heading into March Madness. The team was hot, but so was South Carolina, who won 19 of their final 21 contests heading into the NCAA Tournament.
Neither team shot the three-ball well in this Round of 64 SEC vs. MEAC contest, but Coppin State’s 10-rebound advantage proved to be a significant boost, and the Gamecocks suffered an embarrassing 13-point defeat.
