Fantasy Football Tight End Outlooks and Trends For Week 4 - Reading Between The Lines for Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Cole Kmet, Dalton Kincaid

September 26, 2024

Who should I start at tight end for fantasy football in Week 4 of 2024? Rob deciphers the tight end position and discusses tight end breakouts, sleepers, busts.

This article series typically focuses on the tight ends we, as fantasy managers, don't always know about. Last week, we discussed guys like Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry, Pat Freiermuth, and Tyler Conklin. These guys aren't household names by any means. However, the biggest and most elite names have been the biggest disappointment this fantasy season.

This week, however, we'll focus on some of the biggest tight-end names that have busted through the first three weeks of the season and one surprise name who had a massive Week 3. With the tight-end position, fantasy managers will want to keep track of a player's route share, slot rate, target share, and target rate. We'll be looking at these statistics for some of the biggest tight-end names in fantasy football to determine if there's any hope and what fantasy managers should do with some of the biggest busts of the season.

Three weeks isn't the end of the world, but we can start to see some trends, and it would be unwise to ignore what the seasons have shown. To take advantage of our great premium tools and save yourself some money, please use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Route Share: 69.2%
Slot Rate: 43.1%
First Read Target Share: 14.5%
Target Share: 12.0%
Target Rate: 15.0%
Yards Per Route Run: 0.96

What are we doing with Travis Kelce? We’re holding. What choice do we have? He has yet to score more than five half-PPR points in a game this season and has not yet reached 35 yards. We're seeing problems across the board with Kelce. His route and target share are much lower than what we've become accustomed to from the superstar tight end.

While we can reasonably expect this to increase over time, it’s unlikely to reach the heights fantasy managers need for him to have a positive return based on where he was drafted.

Travis Kelce has a Rashee Rice problem

Splits in 2023 before and after the Week 10 Bye (rookie wide receiver post-Bye bump):

Before - 74.6 yards on 9 targets/gm
After - 55.3 yards on 7 targets/gm

This season - 23 yards on 4 targets/gm

Better days ahead, but Rice 📈 = Kelce 📉

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) September 23, 2024

Based on his target share, his days of being an elite tight end appear in the rearview window unless he runs hot on touchdowns, which is certainly a possibility. While many may be quick to want to move on from Kelce, the question remains … move on to what?

The tight-end position has been worse than ever. However, he plays on a top-scoring offense with one of the best offensive play-callers in the league. His quarterback is still Patrick Mahomes. You have no choice but to hold. However, don’t expect him to meet your preseason expectations. Rashee Rice’s dominance will limit Kelce’s target volume throughout the year.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Route Share: 61.7%
Slot Rate: 71.2%
First Read Target Share: 12.1%
Target Share: 8.9%
Target Rate: 12.0%
Yards Per Route Run: 0.98

What are we doing with Mark Andrews? We’re holding him or trying to sell him to a desperate manager who still finds appeal in his name value. Andrews’ route share is extremely problematic at just under 62%. This number is likely slightly exaggerated due to the Week 3 game in which Dallas couldn’t stop the run, so Baltimore had no interest in passing the ball.

However, his route share in Weeks 1 and 2 was 69.2% and 68.4% before dropping to 23.5% in Week 3. Even if we mostly ignore Week 3, which we probably should, even those first two weeks are concerning. From 2020-2023, his route share was 84% or higher in all four seasons.

#Ravens HC John Harbaugh telling Mark Andrews managers that they’re in for a hellacious roller coaster

(Harbaugh mentioned earlier in the presser that to be able to run the ball when you want to, and do it out of big groups that protect the edges, that’s something that’s in our… pic.twitter.com/9XlTw3GwxK

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 23, 2024

Like Kelce, we should expect Andrews's target share to increase as the season progresses, but it’s doubtful it will reach the height fantasy managers need for him to be a positive return based on where he was drafted. Like Kelce, Andrews also has a problem with a second-year receiver.

Zay Flowers has become Lamar Jackson’s No. 1 target. Combining that fact with Andrews’ decreased route share and the loss of a step (or two), some significant concerns exist. However, like Kelce, what’s the alternative? Tyler Conklin? Cole Kmet?

Fantasy managers are still best off rolling with Andrews. I’d advise adding another tight end for safekeeping in case things get worse, but holding Andrews and hoping for better days is probably the best choice with the tight-end position as desolate as it is.

With someone of his name value, history of production, and being on a top offense, it may only take one good game or two for you to be able to flip him for a serviceable player. The only solace fantasy managers have is that right now, there’s hardly anyone happy with their tight-end production.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Route Share: 71.1%
Slot Rate: 35.9%
First Read Target Share: 7.4%
Target Share: 11.9%
Target Rate: 16.0%
Yards Per Route Run: 1.64

What are we doing with Kyle Pitts? Noticing a trend? Most, if not all, of the elite tight ends have been disappointing to start the season. Pitts’ route share is a little deceiving. It was 78.6% in Week 1, but 67.7% in Weeks 2 and 3.

Those numbers are not terrible in a vacuum, but the promise and potential of Pitts under this new coaching staff was that his route share and involvement in the offense would increase.

Fantasy managers were accustomed to route shares of 70.0% under Arthur Smith. If this is what we can expect moving forward, Pitts can still be a fantasy-relevant tight end; it just means he won’t meet our preseason expectations. Again, noticing a trend here?

Pitts is tied for fourth on the team in targets with Bijan Robinson, trailing all three receivers (Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and even Ray-Ray McCloud III). It’s only been three games, so we don’t want to overreact too much, but also … that’s not good.

Pitts may still very well end up in that TE5-8 range, about where he was drafted, but the production fantasy managers were expecting is unlikely to be there. That’s a trend across the entire tight-end position.

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

Route Share: 68.7%
Slot Rate: 25.3%
First Read Target Share: 9.3%
Target Share: 8.4%
Target Rate: 11.0%
Yards Per Route Run: 1.11

What are we doing with Sam LaPorta? We’re holding because, like the other three names on this list, what choice do we have? Pitts has been okay. He’s TE9 on the season. The problem is that TE9 is still really bad. Andrews and Kelce have been far worse, but with just three games in, it’s far too soon to cut players of their caliber. The same is undoubtedly true for LaPorta.

LaPorta has just one game with more than five half-PPR points. A lot of that is because he hasn’t scored a touchdown yet. He has just one game with more than 40 yards. He has back-to-back weeks of just two receptions. Jameson Williams’ emergence has decreased LaPorta’s piece of the pie.

That and the fact that LaPorta was destined for touchdown regression have left fantasy managers desperately wanting more. LaPorta ran hot on touchdowns as a rookie, and now, with his touchdown rate normalizing or even slightly going the other way and the Lions having another mouth to feed in Williams, LaPorta has massively disappointed early in the season.

Will that change? He certainly won’t continue to be as bad as he’s been. His route rate is reasonable, but his target share is the problem. That and the touchdown regression, which we talked about already.

Will LaPorta get more involved in the offense? Of course, but Williams’ emergence means it might not reach last year’s levels. Will he reach the heights that fantasy managers were expecting in the preseason? Like everyone in this article thus far, the answer is probably not.

#Lions HC Dan Campbell has a 90% reliability rating on injury coachspeak

We don’t expect Sam LaPorta to miss more than a week https://t.co/s90zWa6haD pic.twitter.com/YUIUbF1NQc

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 23, 2024

Making matters worse, he's dealing with an ankle sprain. While it doesn't sound severe, the Lions have a Week 5 bye. Could they play it safe with LaPorta and have him sit out Week 4? Or worse, maybe he's active but on a snap count. Either way, fantasy managers will need to track the injury.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Route Share: 64.7%
Slot Rate: 58.2%
First Read Target Share: 17.1%
Target Share: 13.7%
Target Rate: 18%
Yards Per Route Run: 1.55

Of the tight ends listed thus far, fantasy managers should feel the most confident in Kincaid. His route share is lower than fantasy managers expected, but he seemed to have gotten dinged up in Week 2, which caused him to miss a few snaps. Then, in Week 3, the Bills destroyed the Jaguars, which made for a run-heavy game script and allowed several backups to play.

His target share, target rate, and lack of elite target competition are appealing and should still be something fantasy managers are betting on. He’s had just one good game, but there’s still reason for optimism with Kincaid that he can reach the preseason expectations bestowed upon him.

Dalton Kincaid had three total end zone targets as a rooke.

He has two in three games in his second season.

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 24, 2024

If he’s held back by anything, it’ll be his low target depth, which sits at just 3.4 yards. He has just 37 air yards on 11 targets. Fantasy managers don’t want him being used like Pitts was the past few years (so far downfield with no easy receptions), but something in the middle would be nice.

Luckily, Kincaid has been so good after the catch, averaging 5.8 yards per target. Without that, his yards per reception average would look much worse than it is (10.6). Buffalo has yet to be genuinely challenged in any of its three games.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Route Share: 47.1%
Slot Rate: 56.9%
First Read Target Share: 11.8%
Target Share: 14.4%
Target Rate: 26.0%
Yards Per Route Run: 1.97

The numbers above are for Kmet's 2024 season, but Week 1, Weeks 2, and Week 3 couldn't be more different. You can see the difference below; Kmet is undoubtedly moving in the right direction. Week 3 was even better than Week 2. Chicago is abandoning the Gerald Everett experiment it played with in Week 1, which is great for Kmet's fantasy value.

Route Share: 27.3% (Week 1) vs. 53.3% (Weeks 2 and 3)
Slot Rate: 22.2% (Week 1) vs. 62.5% (Weeks 2 and 3)
First Read Target Share: 5.0% (Week 1) vs. 14.3% (Weeks 2 and 3)
Target Share: 3.4% (Week 1) vs. 18.8% (Weeks 2 and 3)\
Target Rate: 11.0% (Week 1) vs. 29.0% (Weeks 2 and 3)
Yards Per Route Run: 0.44 (Week 1) vs. 2.21 (Weeks 2 and 3)

Cole Kmet in Week 1 with Keenan Allen: 3.4% target share

Kmet without Allen the last two weeks: 18.8% TS

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 23, 2024

The tweet above is something to be conscious of, as are the other numbers. The loss of Keenan Allen has greatly helped Kmet. DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are primarily used as downfield threats, so Kmet handled most underneath targets without Allen in the lineup.

With Allen on track to return in Week 4, Kmet is unlikely to see the same level of volume he did in Week 3. That said, fantasy managers are looking for tight ends who show some life, and Kmet did that last week. He's worth adding and seeing what happens in the next few weeks.

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