RADIO
A weekly look back at the NASCAR Cup Series predictions and projections from the RotoBaller DFS NASCAR team.
Early in the week following every NASCAR Cup Series race, we will review the most recent event for top takeaways, featuring the projections and predictions of the RotoBaller staff. Anchored by the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Racing Writer of the Year and well-established NASCAR DFS wizard Jordan McAbee, the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass includes all the content you need to climb the tournament ladders and prevail in cash games every week on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I will look back at Jordan’s pre-race forecasts and also loop in the analysis of our other top NASCAR analysts in a post-race breakdown of what was learned and can be utilized successfully going forward. Recent trends will be identified and we will highlight where Jordan and the NASCAR team succeeded in their predictive endeavors.
For access to the full suite of content from Jordan and the crew and our deluxe garage of tools that can help you win big in both DFS and NASCAR betting, strap in with the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass. Included in the setup are our lineup optimizer, research station, cheat sheets, VIP chats, and much more.
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AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400: The Post-Race DFS Inspection
Chase Elliott Recaptures the Spotlight
The most popular driver in NASCAR ended a frustrating 42-race winless drought to cap off a frenetic finish at Fort Worth. He was not an overly popular DFS pick on Sunday, yet the Hendrick Motorsports luminary came through with a second consecutive strong performance after showing well at Martinsville.
Elliott was 23.2 percent rostered on DraftKings at Texas Motor Speedway. He finished with 81 DK points after totaling 75 in the previous week. Before Martinsville, he had not totaled more than 44 points in a Cup event this season.
In the Cook Out 400, the 2020 Cup Series champion led for 64 laps and ran 41 of the Fastest Laps. He kept the momentum rolling at Texas, soaring to the win from a starting position of 24th, delivering a strong Place Differential outing for the DK price tag of $9,300. He had the second-highest Driver Rating of the day at 114.9.
RotoBaller DFS NASCAR driver update writer Sean Engel, a 12-time DK tournament winner, forecasted a good return from Elliott in his pre-race outlook capsule.
“During practice for Sunday's race, Elliott showcased a car best suited for longer green flag runs by having the fourth-best 20-consecutive lap average and the second-best 25-consecutive lap average. Although Elliott has yet to score a top-10 finish at Texas in the Next Gen car, he still has great Place Differential upside. Elliott is a fantastic recommendation for all DFS formats this week.”
The Cup circuit now heads to Talladega, where Elliott won the second race in 2022. While this is one of the notoriously unpredictable events of the season, Elliott’s two most recent starts mark him as a driver that may be more heavily rostered next week.
Successful Sights on Suarez
When searching for bargains and discount drivers to fill out your DFS lineups, it is essential to consult Jordan McAbee’s weekly lineup picks feature. At Texas, he recommended Daniel Suarez, who came through as a quality Place Differential producer.
Suarez totaled 51 DK points, his second-highest output of the 2024 season so far. The No. 99 driver started in 17th and placed fifth, providing a significant return for those who rostered him at $7,200. It was Suarez’s third top-six finish of the year to this point.
In his pre-race lineup picks article, Jordan pointed out that Suarez had finished 12th or better in three consecutive races at TMS. He also finished with the sixth-best 10-consecutive lap average in practice.
While Suarez did not register in the top 20 in Driver Rating, he credited good restarts and strong strategy in the race’s final stage as the keys to overcoming some pit road issues, as highlighted on Sportskeeda.
Daniel Suarez made the most out of his day with a fifth-place finish at Texas (corrected as I originally said Talladega). pic.twitter.com/jZugQuLwFp
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) April 15, 2024
In his last three Talladega starts, Suarez has finished in the top 10 while starting outside of the top 20 in the last two races at the site.
Eyes on the Algorithm
One of the most important elements of the RotoBaller NASCAR Season pass is Jordan’s algorithm-predicted finishing orders and projections. Several key statistics are incorporated into the formula, including recent performances in-season and at the current track, similar track performances, projected strength of the car, practice speeds, starting position, and other notable variables.
The numbers generate a "Power Index" number for each driver. The drivers with the highest Power Index rating are expected to be the fastest during the race. All drivers are then ranked based on their Power Index number.
Tyler Reddick, one of Jordan’s highest-ranked drivers for Texas, started fourth and finished fourth. He had the highest Driver Rating in the event at 129.4, and ran the second-most Fastest Laps (42). Another prime pick by Jordan was Kyle Larson, who had the most Fastest Laps Run (44) and led the most laps (77).
If Larson’s tire had not fallen off, he would have certainly challenged for the win, so Jordan’s algorithm-generated call was on point, while Larson simply fell victim to the bad luck that we always run into when competing in DFS NASCAR. Larson was dominant until the point of his mishap, and his performance before the tire falling off was still illustrative of how accurate the algorithm-generated predictions can be.
The algorithm also projected William Byron to finish fourth, and he placed third. Bubba Wallace was projected to finish ninth and placed seventh.
Social Media Spotlight
Following our experts can not only lead to cashing out in DFS, as the projections and predictions are ideal for wagering on the Cup Series, too. Brad Keselowski helped bettors at Texas with his second-place finish, even though Jordan had some reservations about how solid the pick was. Still, you have to take some risks in NASCAR betting, and he was willing to do so.
The bet I wasn’t confident in at all was the one that hit 😂
Keselowski top 10 +115
— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) April 14, 2024
Also, the frenzied finish at TMS was a testament to how sometimes limiting exposure more in certain events could prove to be a good approach. That mindset should be under consideration at Talladega. As experienced players know, too, we should never totally ignore “gut feelings.”
Had a bad feeling about this race heading into the weekend.
Glad I stuck with my gut and went light this week.
— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) April 14, 2024
Forecast of the Week
William Byron: “On tracks with banking 20 degrees or higher, like we see at Texas Motor Speedway, the Hendrick Motorsports star has appeared in the DraftKings optimal lineup in six of the last 12 races, which is the highest in the Cup Series.”
“Given that he is a driver who has now firmly entered into elite-level status, and considering his tremendous success on the track and track style the series is racing at this weekend, the No. 24 should be the foundation of your lineup builds in DFS this weekend.” – Driver updates writer Adam Erhardt resoundingly recommended that Byron should have been rostered for Texas.
Around the Track
-Carson Hocevar finished 10th at Fort Worth. In the pre-race driver updates, he was highlighted as a nifty lower-tier play for $5.900. Hocevar was only 7.9 percent rostered.
-Driver updates writer Sean Wrona cited Josh Berry as an unpredictable pick on an intermediate track, despite his promising Place Differential starting position of 25th. Berry may have seemed to be a viable value play at $6,800 because of the PD potential, but a pair of crashes ended his day early. He has now wrecked in two consecutive TMS races, including the Xfinity Series.
-Justin Carter, who provides the weekly Truck Series previews on RotoBaller, highlighted Nick Sanchez and Christian Eckes as two of his favorite plays. Sanchez finished third and Eckes placed fourth.
