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Everyone loves an underdog story. Puka Nacua is following in Cooper Kupp's footsteps as the darling of the fantasy football world.
Kupp entered the league as a below-average athlete from a school, Eastern Washington, with four players on NFL rosters (Kendrick Bourne, Samson Ebukam, & Nsimba Webster). His draft capital, 69th overall, reflected his backstory. On his combine results page on the NFL's website, his ceiling was "eventually an average starter." While Nacua came from a more high-profile university (BYU), his athleticism score was worse than Kupp's. He was viewed as nothing more than a backup or special teams contributor in the NFL.
As we know, both have proved scouts wrong and emerged as first-class talents in the league. Looking ahead to 2024, which Rams' wide receiver will accumulate more stats than the other?
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2023 Head-to-Head Statistics
From Calvin Johnson to Cooper Kupp to Puka Nacua, Matthew Stafford will provide his wide receivers with record-breaking opportunities. In 2012, Johnson broke the single-season receiving yards record (1,964 yards). Kupp holds the NFL record for most receiving yards in a combined season and postseason (2,425 yards in 2021). Nacua set the rookie records for most receptions (105) and yards (1,486).
Was this gloveless grab by Puka Nacua the best catch of 2023? pic.twitter.com/hx10iflnZ9
— NFL UK (@NFLUK) April 7, 2024
Not every season can be record-breaking. Kupp's receiving totals from the last two seasons have failed to match the 1,947 yards he posted in 2021. Injuries played the most important role in Kupp's diminished production. He was the WR1 in fantasy points per game in 2022 until an ankle ailment sidelined him for the season's final eight games.
The arrival of Nacua allowed Stafford to spread the wealth, which resulted in a hit to Kupp's otherworldly numbers from previous seasons. The Super Bowl LVI MVP made the cut as a WR2 in fantasy points per game (13.7). Removing the game Stafford missed (Week 9) and the contest against Seattle that Kupp left early (Week 11), that number inflates to 15.5.
| Player | Games | Target Share | Target Rate | Receptions Per Game | Receiving Yards Per Game | Touchdown Rate | Yards Per Route Run | Yards Per Target | Fantasy Points Per Game |
| P. Nacua | 17 | 28.7% | 29.1% | 6.2 | 87.4 | 5.1% | 2.72 | 9.3 | 17.6 |
| C. Kupp | 12 | 25.6% | 25.6% | 4.9 | 61.4 | 8.3% | 1.99 | 7.8 | 13.7 |
Kupp missed the first four games of the season with a hamstring injury, but that was already baked into his cost for some August drafts. The injury caused him to slip into the fourth round, and he lived up to the WR2 price.
Kupp was essentially the only show in town before Nacua arrived. Stafford doesn't need to look toward number 10 on nearly every passing play to move the chains now. It couldn't have come at a better time, given that Kupp's age (he'll be 31 when the season begins) is catching up to him.
Where Are Nacua and Kupp Being Drafted?
Let's talk about cost because one of these players is not cheap.
The fantasy football community is still infatuated with the unheralded fifth-round pick from a year ago. So much so that Nacua's ADP places him at the end of the first round (10th overall, ADP of 11). Nacua finished sixth in fantasy points per game last season, and four of the five receivers who finished ahead of him (CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Justin Jefferson) are pricier for fantasy drafts in 2024. Ja'Marr Chase is the only other wide receiver being drafted ahead of Nacua.
Here's an early look at ADPs for the 2024 #fantasyfootball season. What stands out to you? pic.twitter.com/k2TG5aaje7
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) April 12, 2024
Kupp is far cheaper. His ADP of 33 slots him just inside of the third round. It's a reasonable gap between the two. Nacua enters his second year, and he'll presumably improve from his rookie to sophomore campaigns. Kupp just recorded the second-fewest receptions and yards of his career. But Kupp's career is far from over, and he could deliver a strong return on investment at his price.
Fantasy managers were faced with a similar dilemma in 2021. Then-Rams receiver Robert Woods entered the year with three straight seasons of at least 86 receptions. Kupp narrowly edged out his partner in receptions and yards the year prior, but Woods nearly tripled his total touchdown output. The ADPs were much closer than Kupp and Nacua in 2024, but managers that selected Woods suffered through watching Kupp break records, while Woods' season (and tenure in Los Angeles) ended after nine games.
2024 Outlook
Barring a seismic surprise during the NFL Draft or the rest of the offseason, nothing has changed for the Rams' offense in 2024. Stafford will be slinging. Kyren Williams will be running. Kupp, Nacua, and veteran Demarcus Robinson, who played over 90 percent of the snaps by the end of the season, will be the primary receivers. The sole difference could be tight end Tyler Higbee, who remains on the roster but tore his ACL and MCL during the team's Wild Card loss to the Detroit Lions. He may not be healthy to kick off the new campaign.
#Rams TE Tyler Higbee did, in fact, tear his ACL after that brutal low hit by #Lions safety Kerby Joseph, source said after the MRI. He faces a challenge to be ready for the start of next season.
Joseph wrote on social media: “I don’t have no intention to hurt no body and or… pic.twitter.com/jmfBjwGkuZ
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 16, 2024
Nacua is one of the safest wide receiver options. Managers would like to see his touchdown total (6) pick up. He tied with a handful of tight ends (Mark Andrews, Cole Kmet, David Njoku, Hunter Henry, and George Kittle) and logged one fewer than "disappointing" wide receivers DeVonta Smith and Gabe Davis. Nacua plays the same role in this Rams' offense as the aforementioned Robert Woods. Woods' best mark for receiving touchdowns during his stint in Los Angeles was also six.
That's part of what makes Nacua such a safe bet. He managed to be the WR4 in 2023 without the inflated touchdown total. 150+ targets and 100+ receptions are near-guarantees in a healthy season. Finding the endzone more often would push him into the elite tier with Chase, Lamb, and others. Competition for targets with Kupp, coupled with a lack of year-over-year gaudy numbers, prevents him from climbing any higher on the ADP ladder.
The positives for both Rams' receivers outweigh the negatives. For Nacua, the only potential downside is that Kupp reinserts himself as the alpha in Los Angeles. Kupp has injury and age concerns, but Stafford has always produced fantasy points for his wideouts as a healthy quarterback. He comes with his own set of injury concerns. Should both play at or near a full schedule, Kupp will outperform his ADP.
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