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The joke in the fantasy baseball community involved the free agent market occurring quickly in the football world. We had tons of notable football players signed, traded, and released in the first few days of free agency before some of the top players in the baseball free-agent market.
That felt head-scratching because of the many injuries, mainly to the starting and relieving pitcher realm, including Gerrit Cole, Eury Perez, Jhoan Duran, Devin Williams, David Bednar, and more. On the evening of March 18th, one of the top starting pitcher free agents signed for a well-paid deal with the Giants.
We'll look at this pitcher's skills, arsenal, and how they might fit into the new team context. Should we target this player early in drafts? Or should we temper expectations after one of his best seasons? Let's examine the numbers to identify what to expect from this player in 2024.
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Snell Deserved Big Payday
Blake Snell earned his second-most rotisserie value of $27 in 2023, with a career high of $36 in 2018. Unsurprisingly, Snell posted his second-highest innings total after two straight seasons with 128 in 2021 and 2022. Once the contract becomes final, Snell would average the eighth-most average annual value behind Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, and Stephen Strasburg in active contracts.
Since Snell entered the league, he racked up the 11th-most strikeouts at 1,223 and the 15th-best strikeout rate at 29.7 percent behind Cole and Robbie Ray with at least 1,000 punchouts. Since Snell struggles with control, his 18.7 percent strikeout minus walk rate ranked 29th among starting pitchers with at least 500 strikeouts since 2016.
Near-Elite Secondary Offerings
We can look past the control issues when a pitcher like Snell rocks an above-average swinging strike rate in six consecutive seasons. That's evident in his near-elite secondary offerings. Snell's slider ranked seventh in swinging-strike rate at 21.6 percent, with the curveball ranking first at 24.2 percent. He joined Eury Pérez as the only starting pitcher, with their slider and curveball earning a swinging-strike rate of 20 percent or above.
Throughout Snell's career, he dominated with both breaking pitches. His curveball has a career swinging-strike rate of 21.6 percent, with the slider at 23.3 percent. For context, the league average for swinging-strike rate on sliders finished at 16.2 percent compared to 13.3 percent on the curveball in 2023.
Don't sleep on the changeup for Snell because it's a quality offering against right-handed hitters. He threw it only to righties, eliciting a 24.3 percent swinging-strike rate in 2023. Snell's changeup finished over seven percentage points above his career norm at 16.7 percent. It plays off his two breaking pitches well, as it possesses 12-13 inches of arm-side fade down and away from right-handed hitters.
Bake in Some Regression
Anytime a player hits near career bests, we should expect some regression, though the question is usually how much. Snell's xERA of 3.63 shows a mid-3.00 ERA pitcher who posted an elite ERA at 2.25. The projections have his ratios around the xERA, meaning the floor for a starting pitcher with nasty stuff like Snell. We might see a slight shift toward his career ball rate of 39 percent after a career-worst ball percentage of 41.6 percent.
It's probably safe to bake in slight regression from an innings standpoint since Snell averaged 123 innings in four out of the past six seasons, not including 2020. If we use a mixture of 2021 and 2022 as the floor with 128 innings, an 18-20 percent strikeout minus walk rate, and an above-average swinging-strike rate (13.8 percent), Snell lives in an ADP range where there's risk and upside near Cole Ragans, Zach Eflin, Jesus Luzardo, and Joe Ryan.
When we look at the batted ball results by pitch for Snell, it suggests regression, given some of the best outcomes of his career. We drooled over Snell's swinging-strike rates, which shouldn't continue into 2024. However, the results might regress closer to his career averages. That doesn't mean we should fade Snell, but it reminds us to proceed with caution on expecting another elite season.
Park Factors and Groundballs
Whenever we discuss park factors, there's some noise and actionable data. The information is likely more notable on the outlier ends, with Cincinnati, Colorado, Kansas City, and Detroit. San Francisco also falls into that bucket, as they rank 27th in home run pack factors according to Baseball Savant. So, why does that matter?
Snell generated the highest groundball rate (44 percent) since 2018, not including 2020. That's three points above his career average, mainly coming via the curveball and changeup generating groundballs 56-57 percent of the time. Throughout Snell's career, his curve and changeup induced groundballs at 51 percent. We should expect regression, mainly via the curveball, allowing the second-lowest wOBA (.113) against righties in 2023. More groundballs typically mean weaker contact quality, but sometimes batted ball results aren't sticky.
2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Based on projections, Snell comes in as player 94 overall, about 14 spots below his ADP. Given the starting pitcher injuries in Spring Training, Snell's ADP might increase slightly, so the gap widens based on projected value.
If we bump Snell's innings projection to 166, he turns into a value selection at player 63 overall. Since projections bake in regression, Snell's strikeout skills and home park look like a target in most drafts as an SP2 or SP3, depending on league depth.
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