DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The WM Phoenix Open With Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Corey Conners, Akshay Bhatia, Erik Van Rooyen and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The WM Phoenix Open

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The WM Phoenix Open Model

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 132
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 6

 

Last Five Winners Of The WM Phoenix Open

2023	Scottie Scheffler	-19
2022	Scottie Scheffler	-16
2021	Brooks Koepka	-19
2020	Webb Simpson	-17
2019	Rickie Fowler	-17

 

Expected Cut-Line 

2022	+1
2021	-1
2020	-2
2019	0
2018	0

 

TPC Scottsdale

7,266 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded) - Not True Bermuda

We are back with golf's loudest party of the year!

Think of a circus-like atmosphere, where the fans become part of the show when given copious amounts of alcohol, and it begins to push you into the general direction of the raucous environment that will play as the opening act to Super Bowl 58.

Unfortunately, some of that luster was lost early in the week when Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele withdrew from the contest. It is never ideal when you turn an already watered-down version of this contest into something even less desirable. However, I am pretty sure the event could get played with primarily local amateurs and be unaffected by where it sits on the schedule because this is the one week of the year when the fans control the show.

One-hundred and thirty-two players are slotted to tee it up this week and take on the fun gauntlet that is TPC Scottsdale. I've always said the course is as much flash from a structural perspective as it is fun in its nature. It is one of those venues where the risk-reward gets amplified on the back-nine when diving into the built-in Stadium venue on 16 that puts fans as part of the show, not to mention the drivable par-four 17th that can quickly produce an eagle or double-bogey, depending on how you handle the pressure. I only placed a 10% weight on aggression, but I am not convinced you can win this event without going for the green on the par-fives or short par-four holes. It is why I only backed players who placed in the top 50 of that area within my sheet.

We see a 3.7% uptick for strokes gained off-the-tee because of the firm fairways, elevated setup and limited rough. It is one of the reasons ball-striking has allowed golfers like Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, and Gary Woodland to win five of the past eight iterations of this tournament. Add in "team no-putt" captain Kyle Stanley, who took down this title in 2012, and you get a pretty good idea why quality total driving and expected proximity from 150-175 yards will carry as much weight as it does in deciding the winner.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	TPC Scottsdale	PGA Average
Driving Distance	295	283
Driving Accuracy	59%	61%
GIR Percentage	67%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	59%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.54	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green - Last 24 Re-Weighed For TPC Scottsdale (25%)

 

Weighted Driving + Approach (25%)

 

Aggression (10%)

Similar Putting Greens (10%)

 

Strokes Gained: TPC Properties (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Outright	Odds	Unit Risk	Potential Win
Corey Conners	70	0.115	8.05
Erik Van Rooyen	125	0.06	7.5
Jhonattan Vegas	350	0.02	7
Akshay Bhatia	66	0.11	7.26
Adam Svensson	150	0.05	7.5
Davis Thompson	200	0.035	7

Top-50 All Categories
(Didn't Include Putting)

The list falls to Scheffler, Homa, Bhatia, Sungjae, Hideki, Hossler and Fowler when including putting

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are two players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

• Safest Play: Justin Thomas ($10,000) - It looks like Justin Thomas is indeed back. Six straight top-12 finishes since the WYNDHAMMMMMMM Championship in August will naturally make him one of the best plays on the board before entering the first day of the event on Thursday. Thomas' popularity will need to be considered since the Hovland/Schauffele withdrawals will generate a massive outlook of popularity in his direction. However, there is a reason he has been a walking top-15 at TPC Scottsdale in the past.
• Most Upside: Scottie Scheffler ($11,600) - Perhaps the reason for Scottie Scheffler's back-to-back victories at TPC Scottsdale can be accredited to the enhanced projection boost he experiences with his putter on this surface. My model ranked Scheffler an astounding 17th here versus his 102nd-place grade elsewhere with the flat stick, making his three-peat attempt a little stronger than it may be at some tracks.
• Favorite GPP Play: Scottie Scheffler ($11,600)
• Fade: None
• Most Likely Winner: Scottie Scheffler ($11,600)

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Jordan Spieth ($9,500) - I tend to think the perfect time to consider Jordan Spieth in the outright market for this event would have come last week when Ian talked about Spieth being listed at 30/1 at some shops.  I am not as intrigued here at these sub-20/1 going rates when I could land Homa around the same price, but you aren't going to find many golfers in this field who possess more aggression and TPC pedigree than the American. I will consider further for cash, but I am less likely to play in GPPs if the ownership shifts upward like it did last week. I can't imagine Spieth's popularity at this course doesn't push him into that territory before long.
• Most Upside: Max Homa ($9,800) - I am going to chalk up Max Homa's 66th-place finish at Pebble Beach to be nothing more an outlier result. My model projected him 48 spots better in projected proximity here than his baseline expectation, and outside of last week's finish, he hadn't been outside the top 21 in 11 consecutive starts. That level of safety and floor output is more of where I would like to be in a contest of any kind.
• Favorite GPP Play: Max Homa ($9,800) 
• Fade: Cameron Young ($9,200) -No matter how bad the results continue to be for Cameron Young, the price won't stop increasing for DFS purposes. I fell victim myself to the intrigue of his upside when given these driving and iron contests in the past, but the approach play doesn't warrant that same level of support as it may have a season ago. While Young will possess that much-needed contrarian outlook, there are areas of the board where I can get that same boom-or-bust mentality for cheaper. An option like Davis Thompson ($6,900) is one of those routes if you want no floor but considerable upside.
• Most Likely Winner: Max Homa ($9,200)

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

• Safest Play: Byeong Hun An ($8,800) - My sheet had pretty similar returns for both Byeong Hun An and J.T. Poston. We are looking at two golfers who have excelled with their results over the past few months. Nonetheless, I decided to go with Hun An over Poston for safety because of Poston's general lack of aggression on similar courses. It is a coin-flip proposition that will have its pros and cons either way.
• Most Upside: Corey Conners ($8,100) - I noted last week how Wyndham Clark had gained me more traction in this space than any golfer because of his U.S. Open win in June. Still, if we are getting technical, my best bet to date is still the Corey Conners 250/1 ticket I had for him at the 2019 Valero Texas Open - an event where the Canadian Monday qualified to even get into the field. Conners' is no longer a traveling journeyman, but we have started re-entering these inflated times, where the market is overly disrespecting his ball-striking. It takes the perfect course for him to win, evidenced by his only two PGA Tour victories both landing at the Valero, but this risk-reward setup that neutralizes putting is the type of venue where he can succeed. If we ever get a Match Play at TPC Scottsdale, Conners would be the first name to land on my card.
• Favorite GPP Play: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,400) - Like Scottie Scheffler, Hideki's increase from 135th in strokes gained putting over his last 24 rounds to 47th when viewing only similar green complexes in the past is why my model loved his chances. His two victories in 2016 and 2017 would be the upside potential coming to fruition, although the floor is also there, with six top-16 finishes in seven attempts.
• Fade: Adam Hadwin ($8,000) - My biggest worry stemmed from the trending strokes gained tee-to-green data that didn't form as well as you might expect for TPC Scottsdale. I get that taking on one of the top desert golfers might be a kamikaze mission, but we must find contrarian routes somewhere. My model thought Hadwin was too popular and expensive for the floor he possessed.
• Most Likely Winner: Corey Conners ($8,100)

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

***Patrick Rodgers withdrew during the writing of this article.

I will talk about these players tonight when I do the PGA RotoBaller Show at 6:30 PT

• Safest Play: Erik Van Rooyen ($7,100)
• Most Upside: Akshay Bhatia ($7,800)
• Favorite GPP Play: Adam Svensson ($7,000)
• Fade: Denny McCarthy ($7,600)
• Most Likely Winner: Akshay Bhatia ($7,800)

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

• Safest Play: Nick Hardy ($6,800)
• Most Upside: Jhonattan Vegas ($6,500)
• Favorite GPP Play: Davis Thompson ($6,200)
• Fade: The names that have dark red across the board will be excluded.
• Most Likely Winner: Davis Thompson

 

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