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Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Super Bowl LVIII. His favorite NFL betting picks for NFL player props bets for the Super Bowl.
The Super Bowl is rapidly approaching and there's simply no sports event that invites more gambling than this one. While I will have bets on the outcome of the game, most of my action will be on player props and there's certainly no shortage of props and bets available for this highly anticipated rematch of Super Bowl XIV.
I am using primarily FanDuel and DraftKings here for my odds strictly for convenience. I have my props sorted into three categories for you - passing/rushing/receiving totals, anytime touchdown scorers, and receptions.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite NFL betting picks for the Super Bowl on Sunday, February 11th. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and constantly change. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Super Bowl LVIII
Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 rushing yards (-125 DK)
Patty has gone under this number in the last two playoff games, but the Chiefs have been playing from in front during the playoffs and have not been forced into many two-minute drills or hurry-up offense situations. I have a feeling that KC might end up in those situations here in this game and Mahomes is one of the absolute best scramblers in terms of running when he has to and getting just enough for a first down. He doesn't have blazing speed, but a few long scrambles and he goes over this number - something he did in 10 games this season.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 16.5 rushing attempts (-115 DK)
The Chiefs are committed to the run game unlike in previous seasons when they were content to let Mahomes throw 40-50 times per game. Pacheco has little to no competition for carries with McKinnon out injured and Clyde Edwards-Helaire being used as only a third-down back.
Isiah Pacheco had 1,179 yards from scrimmage this season, which is the most by a #Chiefs RB since Kareem Hunt in 2018. pic.twitter.com/HHBguYZocA
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) February 3, 2024
He's gone for 17+ carries in three of his last four games and the Niners defense has looked soft on the interior as both Aaron Jones and David Montgomery found success in the run game this postseason.
Justin Watson longest reception OVER 12.5 yards (-115)
Watson is averaging 16.5 yards per reception this season and has been operating along with MVS as KC's downfield threat. Mahomes is going to take some shots down the field against this secondary and I expect Watson to be targeted at least a few times as the Niners key in on Rice and Kelce.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 5.5 receiving yards (-110 DK)
CEH has yet to hit this number in the playoffs with 5, -1, and 3 yards receiving in the Chiefs postseason games. However, the opportunity has been there as he's run 10, 6, 10 routes, respectively, in those contests.
The Niners are going to play two high safeties and force Mahomes to check down. CEH likely gets a few targets in this game and he just needs one catch and run to get over such a low number.
Brock Purdy OVER 0.5 interceptions (-135 DK)
I am not a Brock Purdy "hater" per se, but I do think he could run out of magic at some point in this playoff run. He does everything well within this offense when things are going right, but if he's playing from behind and being asked to make more difficult throws, he is prone to making mistakes - as any young QB is. This KC secondary is legit and Coach Spagnolo has been in his bag all postseason. I think Purdy makes at least one errant throw and gets picked off.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Travis Kelce (+100 FD)
The Big Yeti has three touchdowns in the Chiefs' last two games and is having a fantastic postseason. His rather mundane regular season is a thing of the past and he should be heavily involved in the game plan for KC in this game, especially in the red zone.
Travis Kelce is the greatest TE of all time! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/2WHykumYxh
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) February 3, 2024
Andy Reid is known for having a lot of creative plays down around the goal line and we've seen Kelce score on everything from designed runs to shovel passes, to just traditional TE routes.
Deebo Samuel (+140 FD)
Betting on a McCaffrey TD simply isn't very profitable as his odds are always juiced up, so I would much rather target Deebo here, who usually gets a few carries down in the red zone, too. He also has been an incredible YAC guy who can catch a short crossing route and take it 20+ yards for a score. I really think he's going to be a part of the Niners' offensive attack in this game.
George Kittle (+180 FD)
Kittle had only 7 TDs in the regular season but has one in two postseason games. He's a huge target working the middle of the field for Brock Purdy and one of the guys who's likely to have a mismatch in the KC secondary. You have to like these odds as we are getting a lot more juice for our squeeze here.
Receptions
A lot of juice on some of these overs, but these reception props make for nice parlay pieces in your SGPs (Same Game Parlays), too.
Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 (-166 DK)
George Kittle OVER 3.5 (-150)
Deebo Samuel OVER 4.5 (-130)
Isiah Pacecho OVER 2.5 (-166)
Kyle Juszczyk OVER 0.5 (-145)
I hope you find my picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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