Closers and Relief Pitchers - 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis, Draft Targets, Avoids

January 12, 2024

Eric Cross looks ahead to the 2024 fantasy baseball season and breaks down early ADP data for the relief pitcher position along with ADPs he'll be targeting or fading in drafts.

As we get into the middle of January, fantasy baseball draft season is gaining speed and momentum. By now, most of you have either already participated in a draft of some sort or are at least beginning your prep work and/or consuming more fantasy baseball content.

This relief pitcher position is annually one of the toughest positions to navigate during drafts. Nobody wants to take relievers early, but that's a pill you're going to have to swallow if you want to be a championship-caliber team. And the deeper the league, the earlier top relievers seem to go. That's especially true in deeper best ball or draft and hold formats since you're not able to make any in-season moves in those formats.

This ADP is from 20 NFBC Draft Champion drafts completed between November 1 and January 12. You'll find the ADP tables below along with my analysis of the ADP at the position, player values I like/dislike, etc. It's NEVER too early to discuss and draft for 2024! And lastly, this is ADP analysis and not my personal rankings.

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Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis - Relief Pitchers

Relief Pitchers I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of

Jhoan Duran, MIN: You can make a case for Jhoan Duran being the nastiest pitcher in the game. His 4-seam/splinker/curve combination is downright filthy and has helped him record a 2.15 ERA and 33.2% strikeout rate during his first two Major League Baseball seasons along with 27 saves last season. Duran also can generate plenty of groundballs with a 66.2% groundball rate last season in addition to his elite bat-missing ability (35.2% whiff). There's a legit chance Duran finishes 2024 as the RP1 or at least in the top three.

David Bednar, PIT: He'll continue to be slightly undervalued since he's on the Pirates, but David Bednar has been one of the best relievers in baseball and one of the top fantasy closers since he inherited the role full-time in 2022. In 2023, Bednar finished with 39 saves, which tied him for the second-most in baseball, and posted the 12th-best ERA for pitchers with at least 50 innings. Only he, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Felix Bautista recorded a 2.00 ERA or lower along with at least 30 saves in 2023.

Tanner Scott, MIA: Get ready for the Tanner Scott breakout party in 2024. While Scott was a highly productive reliever in 2023 with a 2.31 ERA and 33.9% strikeout rate across 74 appearances, he now looks to be the lead dog in Miami's bullpen when it comes to save opportunities in 2024. Given his ability to limit hard contact and walks and miss bats at an elite clip, Scott could realistically finish as a top-10 RP in 2024.

Kenley Jansen, BOS: Sure, Jansen's peak is in the rearview mirror, but he's still one of the most consistent relievers in all of baseball. Jansen is one of three relievers to post at least 25 saves in each of the last three seasons and should do so again for Boston in 2024 as long as he remains healthy. Even if Jansen's ERA sticks in the mid-3s, he's still one of the better and more reliable RP2 targets in 2024 drafts.

Mason Miller, OAK: His ADP has risen about 35 spots since it was announced he was moving to the rotation, but I'm honestly fine reaching for him before pick 200 in drafts. I'm loving the move to the bullpen as Miller has the arsenal to thrive as a late-inning weapon and didn't have the durability to last as a starter anyway. In 2023, Miller averaged 98.3 mph on his fastball with a slider that recorded a stellar .118 BAA, .147 SLG, and 47.1% whiff rate. He's a great, high-upside RP2 target.

Relief Pitchers I Won't Be Targeting

Previously, this section had been about ADPs I wasn't keen on, but since I don't really like any RP ADP (even players I'm in on), I decided to shift and just discuss relievers I won't be targeting in 2024 in general.

Craig Kimbrel, BAL: While Kimbrel has been fairly productive over the last three seasons after a disastrous 2019/2020, I'm still a bit cautious with him, especially when using a top-170 pick on him. Kimbrel will be back in the tough American League East this season and posted a 10.5% barrel rate and 46.7% hard-hit rate allowed last season.

Kyle Finnegan, WAS: Finnegan racked up 28 saves for the Nationals last season but I don't want any part of him here in 2024 as my RP2 inside the top 250 picks overall. In 2023, Finnegan's xERA was a mediocre 4.73 and his 21.9% strikeout rate was uninspiring for a reliever. I'd only target him if you're desperate for saves in your draft.

Alex Lange, DET: It was nice to see Lange secure 26 saves in 2023, but I'm not looking to invest in him here in 2024. Lange's walk rate ballooned to 15.6% last season and his ratios aren't that impressive for a reliever. As I mentioned with Finnegan, I'd only target Lange if you really need saves in your drafts. He's not necessarily bad, and he can miss bats at a high clip, but there are better bang for your buck picks in the next several rounds.

Top Handcuffs to Consider in Deeper Leagues

Abner Uribe, MIL: In 30.2 innings last season as a rookie, Abner Uribe quickly showed how dominant he can be and how high the upside is long-term. In those 30.2 innings, Uribe recorded a 1.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 30.7% strikeout rate while working primarily with a sinker that averaged 99.4 mph and a slider that averaged 89.4 mph with a .080 BAA, .160 SLG, and 58.1% whiff rate. Uribe could honestly be a top-15 reliever if Williams lands on the IL or gets traded.

Yennier Cano, BAL: Cano was slated to be the man in Baltimore with Felix Bautista on the shelf for all of 2024, but the Craig Kimbrel signing moves Cano into a setup role to begin the season. Cano broke out in 2023 with a 2.11 ERA in 72.2 innings and has more strikeout upside waiting to be unlocked if he were to go to his slider and changeup more frequently in 2024.

Matt Brash, SEA: Muñoz will likely be the guy entering the season, but he has a grand total of 17 saves to his name during his career. Obviously, Muñoz is a talented arm, but if he were to falter or land on the IL, Matt Brash would be the next man up and would have top-15 RP upside as a closer. In 2023, Brash finished with a 3.06 ERA and 34.7% strikeout rate in 70.2 innings while ranking in the top 20% of pitchers in xERA, xBA, xSLG, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate allowed, and hard-hit rate allowed. Even with Muñoz in the picture, Brash will still likely flirt with double-digit saves this season.

Bryan Abreu, HOU: Abreu has cemented himself as one of the best relievers in the game over the last two seasons after back-to-back seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA and strikeout rate above 34%. He's done all that with a dominant 4-seam/slider combination in which both offerings recorded a sub-.200 BAA and whiff rate above 37% in 2023. All he really needs is more saves to be a top-10 reliever for fantasy baseball in leagues that don't include holds as a category. If Ryan Pressly were to get hurt, Abreu could be a stud RP in all leagues.

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