The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 5

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

As we head into the final week of April, we're starting to get a better picture of how teams are utilizing their players, what their preferred lineups are and who is off to a bad start. We're also getting a clearer picture of which players we should be legitimately worried about and what action we need to be considering.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone, especially as we're still early in the season. As the year progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Tyler Anderson - SP, Los Angeles Angels - 52% rostered

Prior to the season, I wrote this article about how Anderson appeared set to be a bust in drafts. It's still early days and I don't want to try and take a victory lap at this stage, but the early signs suggest that Anderson is indeed going to be a bust.

If you don't want to go back and read the article, there were a few reasons for this; his underlying numbers last year suggested Anderson was lucky, his new team is statistically worse defensively, his new home is more hitter-friendly, his average fastball velocity was down in Spring (that has carried into the season) and the Angels using a six-man rotation will limit his total innings.

Through four starts (20.0 IP), Anderson has a 1-0 W-L record, 7.20 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and 11 Ks. He tossed six shutout innings to start the season, but that was against the Athletics, who rank 27th in runs scored (73) with his last three starts (including last night) being pretty disastrous.

He's currently sporting a 6.35 xFIP and 5.91 SIERA and his average fastball velocity is sitting at 89.1 MPH, down 1.6 MPH from last year. If we take a look at a couple of the main reasons I was down on Anderson, it should help explain why I'm not overly optimistic about a turnaround.

The main reason why Anderson was able to put up a 2.57 ERA last year (apart from luck given his 4.10 xFIP and 4.04 SIERA) was the amount of soft contact he induced. His Statcast profile below shows how well he did at limiting hard contact.

This year, Anderson has a 12.2% Barrel% (20th percentile), 87.0 MPH average exit velocity (74th percentile) and 36.7% HardHit% (57th percentile). His 12.0% K% is set to be a career-low while his 8.7% BB% is his highest since 2020. That harder contact may be linked to his diminished velocity so things are interlinked.

Although I expect his numbers to be nearer his career marks as the season progresses, the early signs aren't great and my concerns before the season are coming to fruition. It is still early, Anderson is capable of putting up better numbers and I doubt he'll have an ERA north of 6.00 for much longer. But the early signs aren't good and Anderson certainly hasn't started 2023 as a viable fantasy option.

Verdict: Although I was down on Anderson coming into the year, I'd still be holding in deeper leagues at two bad starts shouldn't be enough to sway things. But in shallower leagues, he was only a streaming option given his lack of strikeouts and nothing has swayed me to believe otherwise. I'd have no qualms seeking a replacement and just using Anderson against weaker opponents.

Triston Casas - 1B, Boston Red Sox - 36% rostered

It's been a slow start for Casas, who is hitting .136/.268/.288 with two homers, seven RBI, eight runs and no stolen bases after 20 games (71 plate appearances). For the most part, Casas has been platooning at first base with Justin Turner although statistically, that doesn't seem to be a sensible course of action by the Red Sox.

The below table shows Casas' numbers against left-handed pitching (LHP) and right-handed pitching (RHP) since making his Major League debut last year. I will stress, this is still a small sample but noteworthy nonetheless.

Split	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+
Vs LHP	47	.216	.383	.351	29.8%	21.3%	.339	114
Vs RHP	119	.153	.294	.357	26.1%	16.8%	.294	83

When Masataka Yoshida missed some time last week, Casas was the everyday first baseman against LHP and RHP while Turner was the DH so it's not as if the Red Sox are completely against starting Casas against southpaws. But this is in contrast to what Casas did at Triple-A last year.

In 67 at-bats last year for Worcester Red Sox, Casas hit .224/.350/.269 against LHP while against RHP, Casas hit .289/.392/.553 (197 at-bats). All 11 homers came against RHP and although this is again a relatively small sample, it doesn't match up with what Casas has done as a Major League hitter.

Verdict: Casas appears to be a young slugger trying to work his way through some growing pains in the Majors. Unfortunately, he's struggling considerably and even on the strong side of a platoon, the results and role suggest he's not someone worth rostering in shallower redraft leagues. He's still worth holding in dynasty and deep leagues given his potential upside but even then, I'd be more comfortable with Casas on my bench.

Trevor Rogers - SP, Miami Marlins - 27% rostered

Rogers was having what has become a prototypical up-and-down season, even at this early stage. Two poor starts against the Mets were followed but a one-run (6.0 IP) start against the Diamondbacks before completing 3.0 IP against the Giants, allowing one run earlier this week. That outing was cut short due to injury.

.@Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers leaves the game in the fourth inning. pic.twitter.com/IV8SGndign

— Bally Sports Florida & Bally Sports Sun (@BallySportsFL) April 19, 2023

We didn't have any clues as to what the problem was at the time but we have since found out Rogers was experiencing forearm tightness. That then developed into Rogers going on the IL with a biceps strain, which doesn't sound great but could be better than forearm tightness, which can be a precursor to Tommy John Surgery (TJS).

Craig Mish (who covers the Marlins) stated "The hope is (IMO) it is mild and can return in weeks, not months". If that is true, it's good news but still losing Rogers for weeks isn't ideal and we can already plan to not see him again until late May, which seems to be the best-case scenario right now.

Verdict: Rogers' fantasy stock was diminished heading into 2023 after a 5.47 ERA last year. He was more of a deeper league option but still a borderline starter in shallower leagues. If you're fortunate enough to have a spare IL spot, using it for Rogers makes sense. If your IL is full or you don't have large benches, I'm fine dropping Rogers in most formats.

 

Hold For Now

Tommy Edman - 2B/SS, St. Louis Cardinals - 92% rostered

I was on the brink of not including Edman in this week's article but, as many players have done, he's helped me prove a point. Going into Wednesday's game, Edman was hitting .241/.333/.310 with one homer, two RBI, six runs and one stolen base. After Wednesday's game, Edman was hitting .274/.366/.435 with two homers, seven RBI, nine runs and one stolen base (18 games).

That should act as a stark reminder of how quickly a player's numbers can change with one big game at this stage of the season. After last night's 'combo meal', Edman is hitting .275/.359/.464 with three homers, eight RBI, ten runs and two stolen bases (20 games). Fantasy managers' concerns have been more than about his performance, however.

Edman seems entrenched as the Cardinals number nine hitter, with 14 of his 20 starts being at the bottom of the order. Brendan Donovan has been the predominant leadoff hitter but Edman has filled in that role three times so far so it's not like the Cardinals are averse to moving Edman into the number one spot.

And Edman's play is seeing him push for more starts as the leadoff hitter. His 10.1% BB% and .359 OBP are both better than Donovan's (6.8% BB% and .311 OBP) while his sprint speed (28.0 ft/sec) is faster than Donovan's (27.5 ft/sec). Edman is certainly making the case to usurp Donovan atop the lineup.

Edman has reminded us why you can't just look at someone's numbers and assume they're droppable as one or two big performances can shoot them up the rankings. And if he can be a consistent contributor as he has been for the most part, Edman could see more time hitting first which will see his value rise even more.

Gunnar Henderson - 3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles - 90% rostered

Henderson was being drafted as a top-10 third baseman and top-100 player in fantasy this year. That was largely in part due to his stock as a prospect, widely regarded as a top-3 prospect in all of baseball last year. And he certainly earned his promotion to the Majors in 2022.

Prior to last season's promotion, in 112 games across Double-A and Triple-A, Henderson hit .297/.416/.531 with 19 homers, 76 RBI, 101 runs and 22 stolen bases. In 2021, Henderson hit 17 homers and had 16 steals in 105 games across three Minor League levels, so fantasy managers were banking on his 20/20 potential.

Henderson had a solid debut for the Orioles last year following his call-up. He hit .259/.348/.440 with four homers, 18 RBI, 12 runs and one stolen base (16 games). So far this year, Henderson has failed to deliver on his potential, hitting just .193/.370/.298 with one homer, three RBI, 13 runs and one steal (18 games).

The one stat which stands out the most when looking at Henderson is his 20.5% BB%, which is third-best among qualified hitters (181). But, it could also be a reason for his lack of fantasy production in leagues that don't count walks or OBP. The downside is, Henderson also has a 34.2% K%, which is the sixth highest. Let's look at the below graphic to try and understand what's happening.

If you're not sure what you're looking at, it is Henderson's 'Swing Take Profile'. It shows how often a player swings at pitches in the different zones and what value he's providing for each zone. While it's good he's not chasing much, he's being a bit too passive on pitches around the edges (in the shadow zone).

Looking at Henderson's swing rates confirms this. His 20.0% O-Swing% (swings at pitches outside of the strike zone) ranks tenth-lowest among qualified hitters. That's good. But his 56.6% Z-Swing (swings at pitches inside the strike zone) is the tenth-lowest. That's not good for fantasy. In an ideal world, you want hitters to swing at lots of pitches in the zone, and nothing outside the zone.

But given Henderson has only played 50 games in the Majors, showing a propensity to take pitches and not swing at stuff outside of the strike zone should be considered a big positive and something that should stand him in good stead moving forward.

But Henderson's passivity in the batter's box isn't going to help fantasy managers. I do expect as he gets more games under his belt and his pitch recognition and eye gets more used to Major League pitching, that will change. I'm willing to bet on the talent and give Henderson more time before I consider dropping him in redraft leagues.

It shouldn't need to be said, but Henderson is absolutely a must-hold in dynasty leagues.

MJ Melendez - C/OF, Kansas City Royals - 79% rostered

Melendez couldn't have started 2023 much worse than he has. After 19 games, he's hitting .169/.277/.296 with one homer, seven RBI, seven runs and no steals. The main reasons for drafting Melendez were his playing time at the catcher position compared to others and his power.

The playing time has certainly been there, with Melendez starting 19 of the Royals 21 games and has split time at catcher (five starts) and right field (13 starts). The power is what has lacked and along with the lack of any other production, fantasy managers are justifiably concerned with Melendez.

Only the Tigers (59) and Marlins (68) have scored fewer runs than the Royals (70), which hasn't helped any of their players' fantasy value but Melendez has continued to hit almost exclusively in the top two spots of the lineup. Of course, Melendez has to justify that role and at least his 12.0% BB% (77th percentile) will help with that.

If we look at Melendez's power (or lack of), a glance at his expected numbers should help alleviate some of your concerns. His .216 xBA (21st percentile) isn't great but still considerably better than his actual batting average.

But Melendez has a .481 xSLG which ranks in the 75th percentile. Melendez has a huge -0.185 difference between his expected and actual slugging percentage and a -0.079 difference between his xwOBA and wOBA is tied-6th most. Before yesterday's game, they were the second and seventh biggest differences in MLB.

If we look at Melendez's spray chart below (overlaid on Kauffman Stadium), we can see that he's hit a lot of flyballs and line drives which have been outs and Kauffman Stadium hasn't been kind to him as he has a 3.3 xHR total this year. If Melendez had played every game at Globe Life Field this year, he'd have seven home runs.

There is one note of caution regarding Melendez and that's his 33.7% K% (fifth percentile). Given he had a 24.5% K% last year (129 games) and during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, he never had a K% higher than 25% at Double-A or Triple-A, it has come as a bit of a surprise.

There's enough in Melendez's underlying numbers to still believe he can be a worthwhile fantasy contributor. If we consider that Yan Gomes and Christian Bethancourt are both top-12 catchers (according to Yahoo!), Melendez has still got the capability of being one of the best catchers in fantasy by the end of the season.

 

On the Hot Seat

Brady Singer - SP, Kansas City Royal - 74% rostered

Although I'm not in full panic mode with Singer, I'm certainly closer than I am with many other pitchers. After four starts (21.0 IP), Singer has a 1-2 W-L record, 8.14 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 19Ks. A look at his Statcast profile will have you running for the hills but I'm here to offer some hope he can turn things around.

Now, I'm not going to tell you being in the 96th percentile for extension is the reason for optimism but his underlying numbers do suggest he can begin to provide some fantasy value again. Below is a comparison of some of his career numbers compared to what he's put up in 2023.

Split	IP	ERA	xFIP	SIERA	BABIP	LOB%	HR/FB%	LD%	GB%
2023	21.0	8.14	3.85	4.21	.333	52.0%	25.0%	28.4%	41.8%
Career	367.0	4.24	3.75	3.93	.314	71.9%	14.5%	20.9%	49.6%

My two main takeaways from this are that his ERA is significantly higher than it should be, meaning he has been unlucky so far. But also, hitters are managing to make better contact by hitting more line drives and fewer ground balls. That is generally a result of the pitches being less effective. If we look at Singer's Stuff+, we can begin to see why he's fared poorly so far.

Singer's sinker and slider are his two main pitches with his sinker being thrown 50.4% of the time and his slider 38.3%. His four-seam fastball (2.7%) and changeup (8.6%) are almost afterthoughts, which isn't ideal for a starting pitcher but it fared well for Singer last year when he had a 3.23 ERA (his sinker and slider made up 91.7% of his pitch usage).

Singer's sinker has a Stuff+ of 93 while his slider's Stuff+ is 98. Neither is great but in comparison to other pitchers, both have been middling. Among the 54 qualified pitchers with a sinker, Singer ranks tied-23rd while his slider fares worse, ranking tied-45th among 62 qualified pitchers. Last year, Singer's sinker had a 97 Stuff+ so was only marginally better.

Below is a comparison of all qualified pitchers with a 93 Stuff+ sinker and the numbers against it.

Player	Sinker usage	BA	xBA	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA
Brady Singer	50.4%	.295	.328	.477	.578	.334	.394
Marcus Stroman	40.1%	.171	.246	.171	.303	.234	.309
Charlie Morton	14.5%	.500	.470	.750	1.030	.567	.646
Merrill Kelly	11.5%	.267	.434	.533	.912	.383	.585

The reason for showing this is it's worth noting how his sinker compares to pitchers with an identical Stuff+ but also highlighting that when you throw a pitch more than 50% of the time, it needs to be better than average if you are to have sustained success. Morton's and Kelly's sinkers are their third and fifth most-used pitches, so they are far less reliant on it being a dominant pitch.

If we also look at Singer's velocity on his sinker, I am a little concerned there's a lingering health issue. In his first start of the season, his sinker averaged 93.8 MPH, the same as it did last year. In that game, he allowed just one earned run on two hits and three walks (5.0 IP).

In his three starts since then, his sinker has averaged between 92.2 - 92.4 MPH and he's allowed at least five earned runs in each of them. The drop in velocity from his first start does raise the question as to does he have a physical problem or not and is something I'd be keeping a close eye on during his next start.

All of this leads me to surmise that there are three components to Singer's struggles. One is his sinker hasn't been as effective (or as good) as previously. Secondly, there's been an element of bad luck in play. And thirdly, his drop in velocity since his first start is worrisome.

There's enough there to justify dropping Singer in shallow leagues but even in deeper leagues, I won't be looking at starting Singer next week when he's lined up to face the Diamondbacks and Twins. If they both go badly and his velocity is still diminished, I'd seriously be looking at dropping him in all redraft leagues.

 

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Like last week, we had over 220 comments on Reddit and plenty of names to choose from. So for the second straight week, we're going to cover five of them rather than the usual three.

Alek Manoah - SP, Toronto Blue Jays - 97% rostered

Much has been made of Manoah's average velocity drop so far this year. After his fastball averaged 93.9 MPH last year and his sinker 93.3 MPH, this year they are averaging 93.0 MPH (fastball) and 92.7 MPH (sinker). Below is a chart tracking his pitch velocity through his first four starts of the season.

If we look at his first four outings individually, his start against the Royals was by far his best as he hurled seven shutout innings. That also happened to be his second start of the year in which his velocity was at its lowest. So maybe the velocity drop isn't the be-all-and-end-all. Then came his start against the Yankees last night.

Manoah had seven shutout innings for the second time this season, allowing two hits, one walk and striking out five. That has left Manoah with a season line of 1-1 W-L record, 5.13 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 21 Ks (26.1 IP).

So if it isn't the velocity drop that's caused problems, has he just been unlucky? Well, Manoah has a 6.50 xFIP and 6.10 SIERA so we can say his ERA is inflated but even if it was more in line with his underlying numbers, it'd still be bad. So it's not a case of bad luck. If we hone in a bit closer, the issue is pretty obvious.

Manoah is currently sporting a 13.2% BB% and his K-BB% ranks 75th among the 76 qualified pitchers. Manoah's 17.4% K% this year is well down on his career 24.1% K%. A low number of strikeouts and a high number of walks is only sustainable if you have elite stuff.

And if we look at Manoah's Stuff+ numbers, comparing last year to this, we'll see Manoah does not have elite stuff right now.

	Usage				Stuff+
Year	Fastball	Sinker	Slider	Changeup	Fastball	Sinker	Slider	Changeup
2022	35.9%	25.8%	27.1%	11.2%	103	95	111	72
2023	28.6%	29.2%	29.4%	12.7%	98	86	101	80

When the only pitch that's been better this year is your least used one, you're not going to get better results. All in all, it's been a bit of a mess for Manoah so far this year and a far cry from his 2022 season, when he came third in the Cy Young voting.

And while no one was expecting a repeat of his 2.24 ERA last year, no one expected an ERA north of 6.00 either. Manoah mentioned after his fourth start that he felt closer mechanically to last year than he had all year and especially after yesterday, I'm prepared to give Manoah more time on my rosters.

Jose Abreu - 1B, Houston Astros - 95% rostered

Abreu's offseason signing with the Astros helped pump up his fantasy value with the expectation being he'll be hitting in the heart of the Houston lineup and can tally a good amount of runs and RBI. The first part of that has played out with Abreu exclusively hitting cleanup for his new team.

Despite that, Abreu only has a .250/.290/.284 with no homers, ten RBI, six runs and no stolen bases (21 games). He's not been helped by Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley both being on the IL to start the year but he's also not helped himself. If we compare his quality of contact last year to this year, it's pretty telling.

While not someone I'd consider a 'slow starter', Abreu is a career .255/.325/.451 hitter in March/April, all of which are lower than any other month. When you consider he's a career .291/.353/.503 hitter in the Majors, it's fair to say Abreu can take time to get going. Now, at 36 years old, that seems to be more understandable.

Abreu has always been a productive hitter and over the last four seasons, he's alternated years of hitting 30+homers with a .300 batting average. It's still too early to be concerned enough to consider dropping Abreu as he warrants patience and is someone I'd expect to begin producing more in the coming weeks.

 Luis Garcia - SP, Houston Astros - 74% rostered

Hopefully, Garcia's outing on Wednesday will have settled the nerves of his fantasy managers. Going into that start, Garcia had a 7.71 ERA from his first three appearances, but seven shutout innings against the Blue Jays have left his season stats line as; 1-2 W-L record, 5.14 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 24 Ks.

So are there any lingering concerns about Garcia moving forward or was Wednesday a sign that he's back to his best and the earlier struggles were just a blip? Well, I'm not saying we're out of the woods yet as there was a noticeable change in Garcia's arsenal.

The above chart shows Garcia's pitch usage through his four starts and it's noticeable that he went so cutter-heavy (55.4%) in his last outing while using his four-seamer considerably less (22.8%). Given his fastball is only averaging 92.8 MPH this year (down 1.2 MPH from last year), that may be a deliberate ploy.

If we also consider Garcia's fastball has a .792 SLG against it (.519 SLG last year) while his cutter has a .310 SLG (.247 SLG in 2022), leaning on the cutter more certainly makes a ton of sense and is hopefully something that continues over the next few outings, until he can at least get his fastball back to something resembling a useful pitch.

Garcia has a slider, curveball and changeup to call upon also so even if he cuts down his fastball usage significantly, he's got enough pitches to continue having success. After putting up a 3.60 ERA over the last two seasons (312.2 IP), I'm confident that Garcia can remain a fantasy-relevant pitcher in all leagues.

Jake McCarthy - OF, Arizona Diamondbacks - 70% rostered

McCarthy's emergence as a source of steals last year saw him drafted as a top-30 outfielder in 2023. He's not come close to providing that level of value yet. After 20 games (62 plate appearances), McCarthy has a .143/.226/.196 slash line with no homers, two RBI, seven runs and two stolen bases. Mike Kurland surmised McCarthy's issues pretty succinctly in the below tweet on Thursday.

#DBacks Jake McCarthy is trending down early on
- 58 PA/17 Games
- .154/.241/.212
- .216 wOBA
- 27 wRC+
- Has sat last 3 of last 6 games - including last 2 RHP they faced

Some bad luck
- BABIP .186 - career .324
- xwOBA of .305 - 89 points higher than actual wOBA (.216) pic.twitter.com/Ghiov7YYiD

— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) April 20, 2023

As Mike points out, McCarthy's expected numbers are considerably better than his actual numbers, suggesting he has been unlucky in the early going. His .251 xBA is 108 points higher than his actual average and it's a similar story with his SLG (.355 xSLG is 159 points higher than his actual slugging).

I expect those things to even off over time but the problem is, McCarthy might not be afforded the time. He was starting every other day earlier this week but hasn't started either of the last two games, both against RHP.

The good news is McCarthy's 29.8 ft/sec sprint speed is sixth in MLB so he's not slowed any and his 6.5% BB% is the same as last year so if his luck does turn around and he starts to get more hits, the opportunities to steal should remain.

While I believe McCarthy was overvalued in drafts, I didn't envisage this and I still believe he can be a useful outfielder in fantasy. The issue is his playing time and if that doesn't change soon, McCarthy is someone I'd only be holding in deeper leagues if I'm in need of steals.

Miguel Vargas - 1B/2B, Los Angeles Dodgers - 45% rostered

Vargas entered the season as the Dodgers starting second baseman and fantasy managers were optimistic he can provide value as a middle infielder. So far, he's been a better real-life player than in fantasy. After 20 games, Vargas is hitting .214/.375/.304 with no homers, four RBI, eight runs and no steals.

That OBP is an eye-opener and his 18.9% BB% is in the 97th percentile. Unlike the earlier analyzed Henderson, Vargas has a similar 21.6% K%. Like Henderson, if we look at Vargas' 'Swing Take Profile', it highlights the type of hitter he has been in the early going.

At first glance, he's a better version of Henderson in what pitches he's swinging at and taking. His swing percentages on pitches in the heart and shadow areas are both higher while his take percentages on pitches in the chase and waste areas are also both higher than Handerson.

RotoBaller's award-winning writer Eric Samulski (@SamskiNYC) also featured Vargas in a piece about plate discipline and its importance, which you can check out here. The passivity Vargas has shown at the plate is harmful to his fantasy value but as Eric points out, that could change over time.

Even in OBP or (most) points league, the lack of runs and RBI offsets his excellent walk rate. But there is more reason to believe in Vargas as his expected numbers are considerably better than his actual numbers.

Vargas currently sports a .263 xBA, .411 xSLG and .374 xwOBA (.317 wOBA). Again, these are anomalies that we see more in smaller samples such as the first ~20 games of the season so I'm optimistic that Vargas will begin to provide fantasy value in the coming weeks.

He's yet to hit higher than fifth in the lineup which will not help his counting stats, and that's unlikely to change without some injuries or others struggling so Vargas is unlikely to crack the fantasy top-12 of second basemen anytime. But he's still someone I'd be rostering as a middle infielder in deeper leagues, and keeping an eye on in all leagues.

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