RADIO
The UFC is back at the Apex in Las Vegas, NV, for another Fight Night card after already playing out one since coming back from Abu Dhabi a week ago. The last Vegas event wasn't ridiculous, to say the least. Yes, there were three KOs and three submissions against only four decisions, but things were pretty much spread out over the card and there was a little bit of everything and just unadulterated fireworks.
Here's hoping that changes this Saturday, with Lemos and Rodriguez both ranked in the top seven of their division and looking to take the last step before fighting for the golden belt. We'll see who gets there, the same as we'll see if the confident Dawson can put on a Lightweight show in order to find a shortcut to the top of this new-for-him division. A lot of potential and a lot of storylines to deal with, so let's break it all down a bit.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 64: Rodriguez vs. Lemos on 11/05/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Amanda Lemos, $7400 - vs. Marina Rodriguez
Two great things happening this weekend: 1) two women are back to headline a UFC event this year and 2) these two artists couldn't look better having lost just once each since the start of 2018.
Rodriguez and Lemos rank third and seventh in their division respectively and there are not many lesser fighters above Rodriguez. A win for her would mean instant contention for the belt and a victory by Lemos could put her straight in the championship picture. Win-win fight for the promo, this one.
These two are coming off a recent win (July for Lemos, March for Rodriguez) although it's Rodriguez boasting the most successful track record of late with three consecutive victories and no losses in more than two years (3-0 record). Lemos lost to Jessica Andrade back in April with the latter ranked in the 94th percentile in DKFP, so it's not that the loss was an unexpected one.
Lemos and Rodriguez build their game on striking without caring about takedowns or grappling that much. That said, Lemos has won two fights via submission along with two more victories via KO compared to Rodriguez's no early wins--she's gone to a decision in her five Ws, although that also helped her reach gaudy volume SSA/SSL numbers.
This matchup offers you two competitive fighters with different fantasy profiles. Lemos comes with more boom/bust appeal as she has shown finishing-prowess although his volume-striking is low; Rodriguez can give you huge numbers but it's hard to see her finishing Lemos. I'd go with Lemos all things considered, though.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Daniel Rodriguez, $7800 - vs. Neil Magny
It's crazy that Rodriguez is older than Magny yet the latter has nearly a 20-fight advantage over the former. Magny, of course, debuted almost 20 years ago (Feb. 2013) compared to Rodriguez's recent Feb. 2020 first entrance inside a UFC Octagon. Looking at their fights since Rodriguez entered the circuit, though, things are much more balanced with eight for Rodriguez and seven for Magny.
Magny, even though a 27-fight expert, has never had a chance at lifting the belt never competing for it. He had his heyday back in the 2014-2016 span putting together a 10-1 record but not even then did Dana hand him a title bout. Magny is 5-2 since the start of 2020, though, in some sort of renaissance.
Rodriguez is 7-1 in that same span with more sound results KO'ing a couple of foes, submitting Tim Means in his debut, and winning four more times via decision--along with a decision loss. Rodriguez, even though having one submission to his name, has just pulled off one of four takedown attempts in his UFC run, so you can forget about getting DKFP on that front.
Magny is much much more active on the TD front with 42 attempts in the past seven fights landing 12 of them (28.5% success rate). Not the best landing rate, but the volume is fantastic with 7 TDA per fight giving him a solid floor.
This fight is most probably either going the distance or finishing in a KO in favor of Rodriguez. Given that Rodriguez already comes with the superb striking volume advantage (14.9 SSA per minute to Magny's 6.8) and the KO-prowess, this feels like the easiest pick of the card to make for DFS purposes.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Josh Parisian, $8000 - vs. Chase Sherman
This is not quite a battle of losers but it's getting too close to becoming one if it ever gets re-scheduled for a re-do. Sherman has four career victories and they came in 2017 (two), 2020, and ultimately last July with a KO against Jared Vanderaa. Parisian is 2-2 having debuted as recently as in Nov. 2020.
Both of these two have won at least once via KO with Parisian going one KO, one decision; and Sherman having three KO victories to one via decision. Now, of course, the losses are what stink when assessing these two, and especially Sherman. Sherman lost his prior four fights to July's victory via submission (twice) and decision (twice). He didn't even reach the third minute of fighting time in the most recent two losses, getting submitted in less than 2:30 minutes each time.
Parisian was beaten by the judges, say, in his debut against Parker Porter and then got KO'd by Don'Tale Mayes in the third round of his third fight. Parisian, though, has a reasonably high floor (not in that KO loss, though, when he only scored 5.0 DKFP in a freaking 13:26 minutes...) given his takedown prowess: he's gone for 13 landing four of them, not the worst of success rates.
Sherman has some sort of sustained/historical advantage on the volume front when it comes to striking. He launches around 14 SSA/min compared to Parisian's 8.8 mark but there is a chance Sherman gets subbed by Parisian given the latter's skill set and traits and the former recent results. I would go with the less experienced Parisian here.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tagir Ulanbekov, $8600 - vs. Nate Maness
These two will enter the Octagon this weekend sporting very similar records and career runs: Ulanbekov is 2-1 and Maness is 3-1, the former won his first two fights and the latter his first three, and both are currently coming off their first-ever losses in Dana's promo.
Of course, there are differences between these two men, too. Ulanbekov has won both times via decision while Maness has one win of each variety--decision, submission, and KO. Both lost their lone defeats via decision, though, with the difference that Maness did so against 98th-percentile Umar Nurmagomedov scoring 1.0 freaking DKFP in 15 minutes while Ulanbekov did so against 72nd-pctl Tim Elliott scoring 55.0 DKFP back then.
While both men have landed at least one takedown in all but one fight combined (Maness' loss to Nurmagomedov), it is also true that Maness has never landed more than one (3-of-4 in his UFC tenure) while Ulabekov has gone for 27 total TDs landing 11 of those (nearly 41% success rate). That's probably going to be the difference here as long as this fight goes the distance.
That's the problem, though. Maness has finished two opponents--including 93rd-pctl Tony Gravely--inside the first 7:30 minutes of fighting time each. Of course, the con to that pro is that his floor is rather low on non-finish fights. Ulanbekov has yet to finish an opponent but comes with a slightly higher floor (around 50-to-60 DKFP) and a lower-but-safer ceiling (85-to-95 DKFP). You can go for the boom/bust flier that Maness is, but I'd err on the safe side of things and go with Ulanbekov bouncing back and getting the W and the bigger DKFP tally.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Grant Dawson, $9000 - vs. Mark Madsen
Ridiculous matchup to open the night, folks. And that's because these two have combined for not a single loss in their 12-fight-total UFC runs. Uh, oh, give me more! The only thing is, something has to give... or has it?
The truth is, Dawson has already one draw in his near-perfect 6-0-1 record with it happening on Oct. 2021. So who knows... we might be in for another no-decision affair! Here's hoping that's not the case, though, and someone gets the W. And that, I'm sad to announce, is hella hard to predict here.
Dawson and Madson both rank inside the 94th and 95th DKFP percentiles for a reason. They have scored at least 64.5 DKFP in all of their fights with the exception of that draw. They average 86+ DKFP per fight overall and an even higher 92+ fantasy points per fight excluding that oddity.
Both of these two chase takedowns actively, although Dawson has a clear edge going for at least 11 in each of his past three fights and an average of 10 every time he steps inside the Octagon. Not only does he chase TDs, but he actually has landed nearly 34% of them. Madsen is not bad at it, either, but he goes for far fewer TDs having gone 12-of-18 for a 67% success rate.
Although there is no belt in sight for Dawson with this being his first fight in the Lightweight division, he hopes to enter the ranks with a W over veteran Mark Madson and I'm all here for it.
