RADIO
The aim of this article is to help familiarize ourselves with how we can expect the course to play, what kind of skillsets matter most, and who are the best players in the field in those categories. To microwave the food analogy that will drizzle this article throughout, hopefully this piece takes you straight to the lobster when searching through the buffet of golfers to throw onto your DFS plate.
If the CJ Cup was a 5-star Stat Buffet, the Bermuda has us microwaving yesterday's McDonalds and hoping the honey mustard sauce gets our nuggets tasting ... okay. This is a week where I will find a lot of exposure in the DFS market, with limited bets making their way out of my accounts. Weather is going to be as unpredictable as a Taco Bell fart and considering the field is 90% fast-food quality, we want to limit our exposure against the books, and gain as much leverage in the DFS contests as possible.
I have put in many hours to understand which KFT graduates will be most successful on the PGA Tour and even wrote up the "Korn Ferry Fifty" which has a statistical profile of each KFT graduate. A lot of these golfers will be in the field this week, with the majority of them lacking trustworthy data only having played about eight rounds of PGA Tour golf. That being said, you can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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The Kitchen (Weather Conditions)
With the course situated in Bermuda, weather conditions are going to cause headaches for predicting wave advantages and general playing conditions. The below screenshot has changed drastically since I looked at the weather for Thursday and Friday earlier this morning. This is not gospel, but gives us a general idea of what to expect.
The Menu (Course Breakdown)
Port Royal Golf Club: Par: 71, Yardage: 6,828, Greens: Bermuda
We head to Port Royal Golf Club for the fourth time since this event has been played here and as this field is littered with KFT players, we have turned our model into a relic again, focusing on stats that can overlap with KFT data. Scrambling, good drives gained, putting average, GIR%, and scoring metrics can be used to compare apples with apples.
The Usual (Course History)
Brian Gay has finished T12, FIRST, T3 in his last three starts at this event. Russell Knox, Kramer Hickock, David Hearn and Hank Lebioda have all played well in their 10+ rounds here.
This Week's Specials (Recent Form)
A peek at the top 20 in the four major strokes gained categories over this season. If a player does not have any rounds but has stats, he gained those strokes at a non- PGA Tour event. I have also included the number of rounds each person has played to help you determine how significant that stat should be. Less rounds = less significant.
Top 20 players gaining the most total strokes this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes off the tee this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes on approach this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes around the green this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes putting this season.
Let The Big Dog Eat (Driving Stats)
Any statistic that does not have a pink title is a baseline stat and is weighted 95% (2022) and 5% (2023) by season. The KFT statistics have been watered down by 15% in order to reflect the increased difficulty of the PGA Tour. We had Korn Ferry Tour graduates with much better statistics than Scottie Scheffler, which doesn't make sense, so I did my best to get them to reflect as accurately as possible.
The Driving Statistics portion of the article includes strokes gained off the tee, distance, accuracy and good drives gained.
Chefs' recommendation: Good Drives Gained.
Top 20 players that hit bombs
Top 20 most accurate drivers in the field
Top 20 players gaining good drives
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The Meat and Potatoes (Approach Stats)
Approach. Is. King! Strokes gained approach is the stat that has the highest correlation to strokes gained total and a good approach player provides consistent performances, usually with a relatively high floor. It is indeed the meat and potatoes of all the stats.
Chefs' Recommendation: Meat and potatoes (aka both metrics), as fairways are hit at about a 50% rate at PRGC.
Top 20 in greens in regulation from the fairway.
Top 20 in greens in regulation from the rough.
Scrambled Eggs (Around The Green)
Who likes to scramble their eggs? Who digests their fried eggs best? Lets find out.
Chefs Recommendation: Scrambling
The 20 best scramblers
The 20 worst scramblers
Eat Your Greens (Putting)
Each week we visit a green surface that has specific grass. Players have definite appetites for different types of grasses and some golfers just play better on Bermuda grass. Not enough rounds have been played by the majority of the field in order to determine an adequate reflection of their stats on different surfaces. So, we are going to use the good ol' putting average stats that are available on both the PGA Tour and KFT.
Chefs Recommendation: Putting Average
The 20 best putters in the field.
The 20 worst putters in the field.
Sprinkles and Syrup (Scoring Stats)
Whatever you like on your ice cream or cheesecake, throw a little extra on there with some scoring stats.
Chefs' Recommendation: Medium Course Scoring
Top 20 scorers on medium courses (where par for the top 5 was -10 or better).
The 20 best birdie makers.
The best at playing boring golf, avoiding bogeys.
Who gets it in the hole the fastest on par 5s?
The Fortune Cookie (Above Average in Six Key Stats)
Fortune favors the brave, and these guys appear to be above average in all six key categories that were recommended by the chef. We have a little more guys than normal, but if either of the names were positive for FW or RGH GIR% they were included.
Hopefully this helped you narrow down your players with ease and success.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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