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Brandon Murchison dives into his fantasy football losers and fallers from the 2025 NFL Draft. His top fantasy football fallers and potential draft avoids post-draft.
The 2025 NFL Draft has concluded, leaving fantasy football managers to sift through the fallout as they adjust their expectations for the upcoming season. Landing spots have once again proved to be a pivotal factor in shaping player value, with some draft outcomes creating significant hurdles for both rookies and veterans alike. As teams integrate their new talent, the ripple effects are already evident, marking certain players as potential fantasy football losers before the season even begins.
For rookies, the draft can be a harsh reality check when their new team doesn’t align with their skill set or offer a clear path to playing time. A highly touted wide receiver, for instance, might have been a projected first-round fantasy pick but could now struggle to see the field if drafted by a team with established stars at the position. These situations often lead to a drastic drop in fantasy value, as limited opportunities for targets or touches make it difficult for even the most talented newcomers to deliver consistent production in their debut year.
Veterans, on the other hand, can find their roles diminished as teams prioritize their shiny new draft picks. A running back who previously enjoyed a workhorse role might now face a timeshare with a dynamic rookie, cutting into their carries and threatening their status as a reliable fantasy starter. This kind of competition underscores how the 2025 NFL Draft has reshuffled the deck, forcing fantasy managers to reconsider their draft strategies and brace for the impact of these unfavorable landing spots on both emerging and established players.
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The Veterans
Dak Prescott - QB, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott, coming off a challenging 2024 season with 1,978 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and eight interceptions in just eight games due to a hamstring injury, faces a cloudy fantasy outlook following the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Dallas Cowboys' reluctance to add a potential bell-cow running back or a game-breaking WR to draw coverage away from CeeDee Lamb could shift the offensive focus, reducing Prescott's red-zone pass attempts, where he previously led the NFL in 2023 with 36 touchdown passes.
With new head coach Brian Schottenheimer, who has never orchestrated a top-5 offense, the Cowboys might lean toward a more balanced attack, potentially capping Prescott's pass volume, which averaged 34.7 attempts per game in 2023.
This shift, combined with Prescott's limited rushing production -- averaging just 15.2 yards per game in 2022 and only one rushing touchdown in each of the past two seasons -- could drop him from his 2024 QB8 projection to a mid-tier QB2 in 2025 fantasy rankings.
Fantasy managers should be wary, as Prescott's ceiling may be limited despite his past elite efficiency, making him a risky pick in a crowded quarterback landscape.
Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson, who finished the 2024 season as the RB24 in PPR leagues with an average of 3.9 yards per carry and three fumbles, faces a steep decline in fantasy value following the 2025 NFL Draft.
The New England Patriots’ selection of highly touted rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson, with his home-run speed, introduces a direct threat to Stevenson’s workload, which previously included a 44 percent snap share in his lowest games, as seen in Week 16 of 2024.
Henderson's arrival could shift the backfield to a more even split, potentially cutting Stevenson’s carries, already down to just two for one yard in Week 17 last season, by half in 2025. Stevenson’s efficiency, which dropped from 5.0 yards per carry in 2022 to 3.9 (RB49) in 2024, may not hold up against a dynamic newcomer, further eroding his projected RB22 ADP to a low-end RB3 status.
Fantasy managers should approach Stevenson with caution, as his role in an offense that ranked 30th in scoring in 2024 (17.0 points per game) could shrink significantly, making him a risky pick in 2025 drafts.
Najee Harris - RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Najee Harris, who signed with the Los Angeles Chargers in the 2025 offseason after posting 1,043 rushing yards and six total touchdowns on 263 carries with the Steelers in 2024, faces a murky fantasy outlook following the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Chargers’ selection of Omarion Hampton, a versatile and potential bell-cow rookie running back, in the first round threatens to cut into Harris’ workload, which already saw a decline to a 50.2 percent snap share in 2024 compared to 52.7 percent in 2023.
The addition of Hampton could reduce Harris’ potential for carries by 30 percent, especially in an offense led by Justin Herbert, who threw for 3,290 yards in 2024, often favoring passing plays -- evidenced by the Chargers' 62 percent pass-play rate last season.
Harris’ limited involvement in the passing game, with only 36 receptions for 283 yards in 2024, makes him vulnerable in a backfield that may prioritize the rookie’s receiving skills, potentially dropping his projected RB20 ADP to a high-end RB3.
Fantasy managers should approach Harris cautiously, as his 4.0 (RB47) yards per carry average from 2024 may not hold up in a shared role on a team that ranked 19th in rushing yards per game (115.4) last season.
Jaylen Warren - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren, who carved out a solid role with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024, amassing 511 rushing yards on 122 carries and 38 receptions for 310 yards, likely will not see the fantasy breakout as hoped by many following the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Steelers’ selection of Kaleb Johnson, a bruising, goal-line-capable rookie running back in the third round, directly threatens Warren’s red-zone opportunities, where he scored only one touchdown in 2024. It could cause his 45.1 percent snap share from last season to stay stagnant.
With Johnson likely to take on a good chunk of the 344 team rushing attempts the Steelers had in 2024, Warren’s carries could potentially not exceed 150, limiting his overall production in an offense that averaged just 118.2 rushing yards per game (18th in the NFL).
Warren’s strength in the passing game, while notable with an 11.9 percent target share in 2024, may also take a hit if the Steelers lean toward a more run-heavy approach, as seen with their 53 percent run-play rate last season.
Fantasy managers should now view Warren as more of a fringe RB2, but likely RB3, with the addition of Johnson, as opposed to the hopes of a high-end RB2 finish in 2025.
The Rookies
Shedeur Sanders - QB, Cleveland Browns
Shedeur Sanders, selected by the Cleveland Browns as the 144th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, faces a steep challenge to his fantasy football projections as he enters a crowded quarterback room.
Despite an impressive 2024 college season at Colorado with 4,134 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, and a 74.1 percent completion rate, Sanders joins a Browns team with veterans Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett, plus third-round pick Dillon Gabriel, all vying for the starting role while Deshaun Watson recovers from a torn Achilles.
His lack of elite mobility -- averaging just 2.8 yards per carry with four rushing touchdowns in his final college year -- limits his fantasy upside in a league that increasingly values dual-threat quarterbacks, potentially capping him at a QB3 projection.
Additionally, Sanders’ tendency to hold onto the ball too long, evidenced by taking 99 sacks over his last two college seasons, could lead to turnovers and stalled drives in the NFL, further diminishing his 2025 fantasy value.
Fantasy managers should view Sanders as a late-round flier at best (potential final pick in a dynasty rookie draft), as his path to meaningful snaps in an offense that ranked 28th in passing yards (203.1 per game in 2024) remains uncertain.
DJ Giddens - RB, Indianapolis Colts
DJ Giddens, selected by the Indianapolis Colts as the 151st overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, faces a tough road to fantasy relevance despite his impressive college stats of 3,087 rushing yards on 517 carries (6.0 yards per attempt) and 23 touchdowns over 39 games at Kansas State.
As a rookie, Giddens slots behind Jonathan Taylor, who averaged 23.9 touches per game in 2024, and veteran Khalil Herbert, likely limiting Giddens to a minimal role with fewer than five carries per game in a backfield that prioritizes its star.
His receiving upside, highlighted by 58 receptions for 679 yards (11.7 yards per catch) in college, may offer some PPR value, but his poor 33.6 receiving grade from PFF in 2024 and noted struggles with pass protection could cap his snap share at around 20 percent.
Giddens’ 2024 efficiency, including 1,343 yards at 6.6 yards per carry, won’t translate immediately in an offense that ranked 14th in rushing yards per game (128.5) last season, dropping his projected ADP to a fringe RB5.
Fantasy managers should view Giddens as a deep dynasty stash rather than a 2025 contributor, as his path to meaningful touches hinges on injuries to the backs ahead of him.
Emeka Egbuka - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Emeka Egbuka, drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 19th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, faces a challenging fantasy outlook despite his impressive college stats of 81 receptions, 1,011 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2024 at Ohio State.
Joining a crowded receiver room with veterans Mike Evans, who had 74 catches for 1,004 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2024, and Chris Godwin, who averaged 7.1 receptions per game before an ankle injury, Egbuka’s target share is likely to be limited as the third option.
His slot-heavy role, where 81.1 percent of his 2024 snaps occurred, may see him competing with Jalen McMillan, who scored eight touchdowns as a rookie, further capping Egbuka’s projected 50-60 receptions, 600-700 yards, and 4-6 touchdowns.
Egbuka’s lack of deep-threat ability, with only 10.4 percent of his college targets coming on throws 20+ yards downfield, may lead to him finding it hard to truly separate himself in the Buccaneers' target distribution, making him a WR3 at best.
Fantasy managers should temper expectations, as Egbuka’s high floor as a route runner (2.41 yards per route from the slot in 2024) is overshadowed by his landing spot, dropping his dynasty value to a late first-round rookie pick.
Jayden Higgins - WR, Houston Texans
Jayden Higgins, selected by the Houston Texans as the 34th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, faces a tough path to fantasy relevance despite a stellar 2024 college season at Iowa State, where he recorded 87 receptions for 1,183 yards and nine touchdowns.
Joining a receiver room with Nico Collins, who had 1,006 yards in 2024, and newly acquired Christian Kirk, who averaged 5.7 receptions per game with the Jaguars, Higgins is likely to be the WR3, limiting his projected 500-600 receiving yards as a rookie.
His 2.2 percent drop rate and 58.3 percent contested catch rate in 2024 highlight his reliability, but with only 30 percent of his college snaps in the slot, he’ll struggle to carve out a consistent role in a pass-heavy offense that struggled to throw for only 207.4 yards per game last season.
Higgins’ modest after-catch ability, paired with the Texans’ depth, drops his fantasy projection from a potential WR2 in dynasty leagues to a low-end WR4 for 2025 redraft formats.
Fantasy managers should view him as a long-term stash, as his 6-foot-4, 214-pound frame and 4.47 speed may need a year or two to translate into a larger role amid the competition.
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