RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Saturday, August 15th, 2020 at 3:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/15
- Boston Bruins (-125) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (+105)
- Colorado Avalanche (-190) vs. Arizona Coyotes (+165)
- Tampa Bay Lightning (-180) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (+160)
- Vegas Golden Knights (-210) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (+175)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Vegas | 12 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 18.25 |
| Carolina | 6 | 6 | 19 | 11 | 6.5 |
| Chicago | 22 | 3 | 18 | 19 | 14 |
| Colorado | 1 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 13.5 |
| Arizona | 13 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 9 |
| Columbus | 6 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 3.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7.5 |
| Boston | 14 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 15.5 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents and the data that is used is data from the beginning of the postseason.
| Matchups | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Boston | 18 | 7 |
| Carolina | 15 | 12 |
| Colorado | 6 | 19 |
| Arizona | 20 | 6 |
| Tampa Bay | 10 | 4 |
| Columbus | 22 | 9 |
| Vegas | 8 | 20 |
| Chicago | 6 | 16 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Nazem Kadri ($5,300 DK/ $6,100 FD)
Kadri has been playing so well and so consistently that it is tough to look past his production in cash games. He has scored six points in five postseason games so far and during that same stretch, he has averaged 15.8 DK points per game. He hasn't been afraid to pull the trigger when it comes to shooting the puck either as he is averaging 4.4 shots per game which shows the confidence he has in his game right now. With his discounted price, he could be a great piece for your cash game builds.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Nathan MacKinnon ($8,500/ $8,800 FD)
- Brayden Point ($8,500 DK/ $7,600 FD)
- William Karlsson ($6,200 DK/ $5,800 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Jonathan Marchessault ($6,300 DK/ $ FD)
Another consistent performer on this slate is Jonathan Marchessault. He is averaging four shots per game over his last three games played and has registered six points during that stretch! From a fantasy scoring perspective, he is averaging close to 20 DK points per game over his last three games played and has registered five points in five games against Chicago. He is very consistent and is always priced well which won't cause you to break the bank from a salary cap perspective.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Nikita Kucherov ($8,000/ $8,300 FD)
- Patrick Kane ($7,000 / $7,800 FD)
- Mikko Rantanen ($7,200 / $7,600 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Zach Werenski ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)
Werenski sits in a great price point area which makes him even more attractive from a fantasy hockey perspective. He has only gotten one point in his last four games but has still posted double-digit performances in three of those four games. He has been active from a shot on goal perspective while on the defensive end he has been averaging over three blocked shots per game over his last four games played. With how competitive this game could be, Werenski could see an uptick in ice-time which of course leads to more opportunities to rack up fantasy points.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Shea Theodore ($6,800 DK/ $5,900 FD)
- Victor Hedman ($5,600 DK/ $6,300 FD)
- Seth Jones ($5,500 DK/ $5,200 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Joonas Korpisalo ($7,600 DK/ $7,700 FD)
While the Blue Jackets aren't favorites in this matchup against Tampa Bay, it is hard to pass up the production that Korpisalo has brought to lineups the past several games. Yes, the five OT game is an outlier but Columbus does allow a lot of shots to get through which helps Korpisalo from a save perspective. He brings extreme upside as he has posted two shutouts during the postseason already and with the form that he is showing, it seems as if he is primed to do all that he can to keep Columbus in this series against Tampa.
Other Goalie Options:
- Robin Lehner ($8,400 DK/ $8,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Paul Stastny ($4,500 DK/ $4,700 FD)
- Boone Jenner ($4,000 DK/ $4,300 FD)
- Kirby Dach ($3,500 DK/ $4,400 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Reilly Smith ($5,300 DK/ $5,800 FD)
- Cam Atkinson ($5,100 DK/ $6,700 FD)
- Nick Foligno ($3,600 DK/ $4,900 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Alec Martinez ($4,100 DK/ $3,800 FD)
- David Savard ($4,000 DK/ $3,900 FD)
- Vladislav Gavrikov ($3,700/ $3,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Darcy Kuemper ($7,100 DK/ $7,400 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
Vegas Golden Knights (L1, L2, PP1, L3)
So far in the series against Chicago, Vegas has averaged four goals per game which is extremely solid. In their most recent game, Vegas generated over 15 high danger scoring chances while doing a great job from a puck possession standpoint with a 55.64% corsi percentage. The top line for the Knights led the way with generating seven high danger opportunities but their third line dominated the puck possession when they saw ice-time with a 82.14% corsi percentage. Even though Chicago will have the home line matching advantage, Vegas could be the deepest team in the postseason and will create mismatches all throughout the game regardless of who is on the ice for them.
Colorado Avalanche (L1, L2)
The Avs just look to be in the drivers seat right now against the Coyotes. While Darcy Kuemper has been doing a solid job for the Coyotes, the Avs have too much talent in their top six and will usually find a way to win games, especially if they are close. Kadri has been leading a strong second line and this could be a good pivot or secondary stack to look at if you are not able to pay up for the MacKinnon line.
Other Stacks that could be lower owned: CBJ (L1, L2), TB (L1)
