5 Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Later-Round Upside Picks in Drafts (2026)

March 16, 2026

Zach's starting pitcher (SP) fantasy baseball breakout candidates, five cheap upside draft sleepers for 2026. His favorite pitcher values in the later rounds.

Every season, multiple pitchers break out. Some of these pitchers go under the radar in drafts, while others become strong waiver wire pickups. When looking back at the 2025 season, pitchers like Hunter Brown, Jesus Luzardo, and Trey Yesavage are just a few of the fantasy baseball breakouts from last year.

As we head into the 2026 campaign, several more starting pitchers will likely break out in the coming months. All of the potential fantasy baseball breakouts featured on this list are going outside the top 175 in NFBC drafts since February 15 and could wind up being excellent value picks in the later rounds.

So, which five starting pitchers will break out this upcoming season? Let's dive in and find out.

Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs

ADP: 192.6

Last season, the Cubs called up Horton early in May, and the top prospect was impressive, showing room for further growth. He'll still be starting his first full season in the majors and has come to spring training with a little extra velocity, according to reports.

In 2025, he pitched 118 innings across 23 games (22 starts) and compiled a 2.67 ERA, 3.58 FIP, and 4.27 xFIP. He averaged just under a strikeout per inning (97 strikeouts in 118 innings) on his way to a second-place finish in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. He had one bad start against the Astros in Houston towards the end of June, giving up seven runs in four innings.

After that game, though, he went on a dominant run, posting an 8-2 record with a 1.36 ERA and 2.96 FIP over the last three months of the season. In 12 straight games to finish the year, he allowed two runs or fewer.

While his strikeout rate isn’t eye-catching in his rookie year, some of that may have been because he was doing all he could to work efficiently and go deeper into games. He also had a higher strikeout rate as he settled into the majors, and the extra velocity could also help his strikeout numbers rise.

His ERA looks to be unsustainably low based on the rest of his metrics, but even with a little regression in that category, he should be a very valuable fantasy baseball producer where he’s going in drafts right now.

Cade Horton looks like a great draft value.

ADP has been hovering in the 180-200 range.

Even if the ERA ticks up into the 3.50 range, I believe his K rate will tick up as well into the 25% range.

Good upside play in rounds 12-15.#FantasyBaseballpic.twitter.com/cR5LrlYqXv

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 25, 2026

Horton will be holding a key rotation spot with a good lineup behind him, so he has a very high ceiling if he stays healthy for the Cubs this season.

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

ADP: 243.8

Leiter is another top prospect who is looking to build on some late-season success in 2026. Leiter was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft and has shown elite upside, even though he has struggled with consistency during his time in the majors. 

The 25-year-old is expected to open the season in the fourth spot in the Rangers' strong rotation behind Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and newly-acquired MacKenzie Gore. Leiter made 29 starts for Texas last year, going 10-10 with a 3.86 ERA and 4.15 FIP. He had a 22.9% strikeout rate on the season, but that number showed his progression as the season went on, since in the first half, he had a 19.9% strikeout rate, but after the All-Star break, his strikeout rate jumped to 26.3%.

His walk rate also trended in the right direction, dropping to 9.7% after 11.0% in the first half.

Leiter will look to continue his progress this season, and with a stronger team around him, he could be set for a breakout season. He has the kind of upside to target after the 250th pick in your draft. He's not a sure thing, but he is a relatively affordable pick that brings lots of upside.

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

ADP: 317.5

Messick doesn't have quite the prospect pedigree of the first two picks in this post, but he does bring solid upside with the Guardians, who have shown the ability to develop outstanding starting pitching over the last several seasons. After the Guardians selected him in the second round of the 2022 MLB Draft, in August of last year.

The 25-year-old lefty was impressive in his first taste of the majors and could force his way into Cleveland's rotation on Opening Day. He'll need a strong spring, or he could start in the minors, but even if he does, he'll likely make a fantasy impact whenever he gets an opportunity this season.

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 300.9

The Twins appear to be in for a long season, but that doesn't mean there won't be some fantasy value picks that bring upside from the Land of the Lakes towards the end of your fantasy baseball drafts. One pitcher with big-time upside available after 300 picks are made is 25-year-old righty, Zebby Matthews. Matthews skyrocketed through the minors in 2024 but has struggled in his first few chances in the majors.

He still has elite upside if he puts it together, though, and has shown some positive signs. In his 117 MLB innings over the last two seasons, he has a 24.7% strikeout rate, totaling 131 strikeouts with just 35 walks. He has struggled with his control, but instead of resulting in walks, his issues have led to misses in the zone that hitters have crushed. In his 16 starts last year, he had a 5.56 ERA, 4.67 xERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.81 xFIP, and 3.82 SIERA.

The metrics indicate he pitched better than that ugly ERA, but he definitely needs to limit the damage more this season, while keeping his strikeout rate high.

Throughout his time in the minors and the majors, he has shown he has the raw stuff to produce. He uses six pitches and gets plenty of swings and misses, but he needs to continue to progress in his pitch mix and pinpoint control to avoid giving up so many rockets. He doesn't have much left to prove at Triple-A, where he went 2-1 in eight starts last year, with a 1.72 ERA, 2.02 FIP, and 11.5 K/9.

If he can translate that success to the majors this season, he has an extremely high ceiling, and he may have a chance to reach it this year.

After the season-ending injury to Pablo Lopez, the Twins have an open competition for the final rotation spot. Matthews will have to outpitch fellow young pitchers Mick Abel and David Festa for the fifth spot behind Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Taj Bradley. Ryan is also dealing with an injury, though, so there could be even more space available.

Is Zebby Matthews set to take a step forward in 2026?@corbin_young21 thinks so... pic.twitter.com/GWingfyDzX

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) January 14, 2026

Thomas White, Miami Marlins

ADP: 568.1

The Marlins made some interesting moves this offseason, including trading away two of their most established starting pitchers. They sent Edward Cabrera to the Cubs and Ryan Weathers to the Yankees in two separate deals, getting back some solid prospects and opening up opportunities for young pitchers to step into the rotation. The two young arms to watch in Miami for your fantasy team are Robby Snelling and Thomas White.

Both have big-time upside, but White is going a little later and has a higher ceiling, so I'm giving him the nod for the fifth spot in these cheap upside picks.

White is the No. 18 prospect in all of baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, which makes him the top lefty pitcher in the rankings. The Marlins added him in the compensatory draft pick section after the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft, taking him No. 35 overall. He was only 18 years old at the time, but he has worked his way quickly through the minors in his first two full seasons as a pro.

In 2024, he made 21 starts in Single-A and High-A, posting a 2.81 ERA and 11.3 K/9 in 96 innings. Last year, he split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, going 4-3 in 21 starts, compiling a 2.31 ERA and impressive 14.6 K/9. He only made two starts in Triple-A, so he may not be quite ready, but his strikeout numbers show how dominant he can be and how high his ceiling is.

Thomas White tossed five no-hit innings with 10 strikeouts tonight!

5 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 K

My #1 pitching prospect yet to debut #MarlinsBeisbolpic.twitter.com/ZSZ752B9lV

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) August 31, 2025

The upside is obvious, but the reason his ADP is so low is that he will likely be a midseason call-up rather than starting in the MLB after suffering an oblique injury in camp. If your league setup allows for stashing players or you can wait for an in-season jolt, adding White late in the draft definitely makes sense. Snelling is a little more MLB-ready and has better control, which could make him a "safer" sleeper, while White brings more upside if he can get his control issues worked out.

His walk rate jumped from  9.2% in 2024 to 13.6% last season, so he'll need to improve that while continuing to rack up strikeouts with his 94-97 mph fastball that touches 99, a wipeout 82-85 mph slider, and a fading mid-80s changeup that he used more effectively last season.

White has ace potential, and his strikeout rate could make him an instant impact pitcher once he reaches the majors.

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