John Johnson's Fantasy Football Must-Avoid Draft Picks: 5 Overvalued Veteran Busts for 2025

John Johnson's fantasy football players to avoid for 2025. His top veteran busts candidates and fantasy draft fades, including Aaron Jones, DJ Moore, and more.

There are players you just shouldn't draft every year. In hindsight, it seems obvious why, but before the season, it's important to understand that busts can be difficult to predict.

And it's also crucial to recognize that busts are often players that fantasy managers really want to succeed and have big seasons. Unfortunately, that doesn't always happen.

There are five players in particular, among others, that I just can't help but avoid this season. I'll explain them in detail below, so let's dive in!

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Aaron Jones Sr., RB, Minnesota Vikings

Jones might still lead the Vikings backfield in touches this season. That's great for him. What's not great for him is how astoundingly horrible he was last season in short-yardage scenarios and at the goal line. That's not his game. Using him as a receiver and getting him in space is.

The good news is he should still have a pretty solid receiving role. The bad news is that rarely means much on its own for running backs. Volume is absolutely crucial at the position in fantasy football, and a big reduction in it naturally almost always leads to a big reduction in fantasy scoring.

Aaron Jones in 2025:

-Inside the 10-yard line: 0.3 yards per carry
-Inside the 5-yard line: -0.2 yards per carry

Jones was awful in these short yardage situations. Mason should have at least 8 rush TDs in 2025.

Stay away from Jones in fantasy in 2025.https://t.co/k1hYDOY9Y2 pic.twitter.com/0Q4RzA6nNG

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) April 6, 2025

The addition of RB Jordan Mason, acquired through a trade with the San Francisco 49ers, to the Vikings roster is clearly set to spell trouble for Jones' production. Jones averaged a nearly league-worst 0.3 yards per carry inside the 10-yard line, and actually had a negative rushing average inside the 5.

Why that would change magically this late in his career, I don't know. But Mason is the perfect back for these situations. As you can see from Dataroma's X post above, the one I featured in my own post, Mason was a fantastic tackle-breaking back and excelled on short-yardage opportunities.

#Vikings OC Wes Phillips with another signal that Jordan Mason will be Minnesota’s short-yardage and goal line back https://t.co/5gbzOehqjr pic.twitter.com/IUtIH1IPre

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 12, 2025

Even the team's coaching staff has repeatedly indicated what Mason's role will be. And that will cut into Jones' usage. It will take quite a few receiving touchdowns and a huge boost in efficiency for Jones to be worth his ADP and produce like he did last season. That seems pretty improbable.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

I have quite a few problems with JSN this season. For starters, he won't be on a massively pass-heavy offense like he was last season. The Seahawks passed the ball at one of the highest rates in the league over expectation, leading to the second-year pro often getting absolutely spammed with targets.

Last year the Seattle Seahawks had the 5th highest pass rate over expectation in the league. All while Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf played through injury. SEA's new OC, Klint Kubiak, passed at a way lower rate in 2024. He's a super run-heavy OC. Bad news for Jaxon Smith-Njigba pic.twitter.com/VPHtCKKVAf

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 27, 2025

Add to this the big downgrade in quarterback -- Seattle traded away QB Geno Smith and signed Sam Darnold -- and you have a recipe for a disappointing season from JSN. Darnold was awful under pressure last season, and now he'll play behind one of the league's worst offensive lines over the past decade.

I don't understand what people think will happen when Sam Darnold is put behind one of the league's worst offensive lines. Even in Kevin O'Connel's elite offensive system with the Vikings, with an elite pass catching group, Darnold was horrible under pressure. pic.twitter.com/swXc3d4WoR

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 27, 2025

While Smith graded worse under pressure, it's important to note the difference in offensive talent. Minnesota was far better across the board, with receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison easily amounting to a far better group than JSN and a hobbled DK Metcalf.

Smith-Njigba didn't even break out until Seattle's true WR1, Metcalf, suffered a knee injury. He returned after a few weeks, but clearly wasn't the same. Metcalf easily crushed Smith-Njigba in

Yards Per Route Run -
DK: 2.16
JSN: 1.20 (!!!)

Yards Per Target -
DK: 9.39
JSN: 5.91

1st-Read Target Share -
DK: 26.2%
JSN: 21.3%

After the knee injury, Metcalf's efficiency dipped massively. His YPRR dipped to 1.77, over 0.40 lower than previously.

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) February 27, 2025

Had Metcalf not been hurt, I imagine JSN's value would be way lower, as his "breakout" season wouldn't have really happened. But here we are. I can't stomach drafting him in any leagues at his ADP. Doesn't help that the team signed another slot receiver, Cooper Kupp, to a three-year deal.

Smith-Njigba produced very heavily from the slot, and slot usage is a cheat code for fantasy football production. A reduction in those snaps wouldn't be great for JSN.

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears

It's hard to put into words how much fantasy managers ignore teams absolutely shrieking at the top of their lungs about what they think of the players on their roster by what decisions they make in the NFL Draft. It's hard for me not to think that Chicago made it very clear what they think of their WR group for next season.

After the team let go of WR Keenan Allen in the offseason, many expected the Bears to grab a highly-touted running back in the draft, follow that up with a slew of offensive line picks, perhaps draft a depth piece at receiver in the later rounds, and call it good with that.

This would have left Moore and WR Rome Odunze as the team's primary receiving options, with tight end Cole Kmet as the third option. That definitely did not happen, as the Bears used their first two picks, surprisingly to many, on TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden III.

Drake Maye > Caleb Williams

DJ Moore and Rome Odunze aren't as good as people think

Also the poor separation stats could explain why Ben Johnson immediately drafted Colston Loveland and Luther Burden?

Either way, not drafting CW, Moore or Odunzehttps://t.co/DhpoJKIpMX

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 17, 2025

The pass-catching room is now very crowded. And while Moore had a solid ending to his 2024 season, he did this on the back of a lot of designed targets. Keep in mind that Burden was easily the best yards-after-catch threat, at least according to NFL scouts, in the 2025 draft class.

Where do you think this is headed? Why would the team continue feeding Moore a bunch of the slam-dunk passes, with an incredibly high expected completion percentage, when they drafted a guy who has a much higher ceiling for picking up more yards on those plays? That doesn't make much sense.

Rome Odunze, Colestand Loveland, and Luther Burden are all exciting pieces….

But DJ Moore is incredibly talented, has finished as the WR6 and WR16 in his last two years. He isn’t being hyped up much in this exciting Bears offense.

He feels safe at his WR22-26 ADP range. pic.twitter.com/c134h3cne8

— Hutchinson Brown (@hutchinsonb_ff) June 27, 2025

There's always a lot of stupid "the VETERAN will still be good because he was good in the past and nothing ever changes" rhetoric out there. How could you possibly be comfortable starting Moore by midseason, though? Unless quarterback Caleb Williams takes a quantum leap, I just don't see it happening.

Williams was awful last season. He was the worst QB in the league on deep passes, and often missed Moore on his deep routes. There are examples all over film. Moore had issues with, and subsequently was called out for, his lack of effort, as well. Those are bad signs.

During Ben Johnson’s recent press conference, he spoke about max effort from players and blocking for teammates

Last year, we saw the opposite from DJ Moore. Terrible body language, lack of effort, and frustration

Is Luther Burden III his replacement? pic.twitter.com/Fc8x2T46PL

— The FF Dynasty (@TheFFdynasty) May 6, 2025

Moore could be on his way out of Chicago. He's likely on his way out of his prominent role in the passing offense, too. Take someone who has fewer red flags inside the first four rounds. DJM is likely headed for a huge bust of a season.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Flowers was expected to take on a bigger role in the Ravens offense in 2024. As the team's clear WR1, he was highly touted as a huge value in fantasy drafts. And while he improved from 53.6 receiving yards per game in 2023 to 62.2 in 2024, he scored two fewer touchdowns.

This was despite Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson throwing 17 more touchdown passes in 2024 than 2023. Flowers' share of receiving TDs plummeted from nearly 21 percent to just over 9.7 percent. A huge boost in Jackson's production should have led to a much bigger Flowers season.

Only one I am not with you on is Zay Flowers, not a bad player, but he is not a red zone target, he is the WR1, but doesn’t receive WR1 like volume, he will be a solid flex at best, not expecting a major leap for him, WR30 in PPG for the past two years.

— Marc Gartenberg (@marc_gartenberg) June 27, 2025

Being a 5-foot-9, 183-pound receiver doesn't make you much of a red zone threat. Thus, it's no surprise that Flowers had fewer reception TDs than Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Isaiah Likely last season. Size and strength matter a lot more in short-yardage situations than they do on other parts of the field.

So Flowers, despite being ranked as the WR30 by ADP, doesn't seem like a good bet to draft. In the later rounds, you're looking for players who have solid chances of beating their ADP, not guys with obvious ceilings and limitations that won't help you win a championship.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

This one should be pretty simple to break down. The Saints are a dumpster-fire of an organization. And they lost their starting quarterback, Derek Carr, who retired after the 2024 season. He'll be replaced by... someone? Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener are currently competing for the QB1 job.

We already know Rattler and Haener really aren't starting QB material. And Shough was a third-round pick in a very, very weak 2025 NFL Draft quarterback class. Only the highest level of copium, largely from Saints fans, is propping up the idea that Shough is actually good and the entire NFL just whiffed on him.

Active Saints QBs (by win percentage w/ the Saints):

Taysom Hill 12-10 (.5454)
Derek Carr 14-13 (.5185)
Tyler Shough 0-0 (.0000)
Spencer Rattler 0-6 (.0000)
Jake Haener 0-1 (.0000) pic.twitter.com/qToK7YAh58

— John Butler (@Saintjohnbutler) May 7, 2025

Olave seems to be a great value player every year! Every offseason, that is. In all his seasons that he hasn't played with QB Jameis Winston, the gunslinger, at the helm, he's been a disappointment at ADP. That shouldn't change. Winston propped up his rookie year production, but he's gone.

Shough will be behind an awful offensive line -- the Saints' OL is in shambles, especially after the retirement of tackle Ryan Ramczyk. This could easily be the league's worst offense, and unless Olave is fed a ton of worthless screen targets and slung the ball a million times to little measurable benefit, he should be a bust.

A Chris Olave chart pic.twitter.com/VPTkfsoSs1

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 9, 2025

Olave as a player doesn't bother me. He's highly efficient. But the horrible situation and his incredibly injury-prone nature do. He suffered two concussions in 2024 and missed nine games. He's how had five concussions in his career. His days in the NFL could be numbered if that doesn't change.

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