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Now that we’re coming off our rookie fever, it’s time to see where the newest NFL players stack up against the veterans. That’s right, we’re talking rookies and dynasty rankings.
My name is Ellis Johnson and this is my sixth year writing NFL content with RotoBaller. I also contribute to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings and create fantasy content on TikTok (@firesidefantasy_ffl). I also recently wrote a three-round rookie mock draft for a 10-team Superflex league, which you can find here.
In this article, I am going to list my rookie rankings from 30 to 21, as well as where they stand in my dynasty rankings. Out of all fantasy formats, dynasty is the most subjective. Every manager weighs age, talent, and landing spot differently when evaluating players. In the end, every league has its market values for players, making no one set of rankings perfect. Having said that, here are my rookie rankings. You can find my full rankings here, on FantasyPros.
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30. Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, NYG)
Positional Ranking: 38. Chase Brown (CIN), 39. Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG), 40. Khalil Herbert (CHI)
Personally, I was not a huge fan of Tracy as a prospect; however, rookie running backs in crowded backfields are always a good bet. The Giants selected Tracy at the end of the fifth round. He now sits behind offseason acquisition Devin Singletary to try and fill the void left by Saquon Barkley.
Neither back is close to Barkley; however, this offense also drafted another premier weapon in Malik Nabers. If this offense can be near average, the running back could be a decent fantasy flex play. Although Singletary is a solid NFL RB, if Tracy flashes in camp, he could earn the backup role and potentially some touches each week. At this point in my rankings, I’m happy to take situation over talent, which is exactly how I view Tracy.
My favorite stat for Giants’ 5th round pick, RB Tyrone Tracy Jr
0.18 Broken Tackles per Touch (3rd in class) pic.twitter.com/3QOLvK6FZN
— Doug Analytics (@Doug_Analytics) April 28, 2024
29. Ben Sinnott (TE, WAS)
Positional Ranking: 15. Cole Kmet (CHI), 16. Ben Sinnott (WAS), 17. Dalton Schultz (HOU)
Unless your name is Brock Bowers or Kyle Pitts, rookie tight ends are hard to predict. Even if you have all the talent in the world, situation and development play a crucial role in finding fantasy success (look at Pitts so far). One of the only indicators consistent in predicting TE production is athleticism and situational opportunity for playing time.
That’s where Sinnott comes in after the Commanders selected him with the 21st pick of the second round. Sinnott is an excellent athlete at 6-foot-4 and 250 pounds, and he ran a 4.68-second 40-yard dash. That’s the first check mark.
The second thing to look for is his situation. The Commanders are finally on the “up” with their revamped offense after selecting Jayden Daniels with the second pick overall. They also brought in Kliff Kingsbury to be their offensive coordinator. Of note, Kingsbury drafted Trey McBride in the second round when he was with the Cardinals. McBride had a breakout season last year. The only tight ends in Sinnott’s way are an aging Zach Ertz returning from injury and fantasy sleeper Cole Turner. As a result, there is a solid path for Sinnott to carve out a role in this offense early in his development.
28. Ray Davis (RB, BUF)
Positional Ranking: 44. Raheem Mostert (MIA), 45. Ray Davis (BUF), 46. Austin Ekeler (WAS)
Davis is a classic bowling ball running back who can knock people over at the goal line. His 5-foot-8, 211-pound stance makes him hard to bring down. Athletically, he does not possess incredible speed or balance, but he is a decent downhill runner. Often, this profile isn’t great for fantasy, but the Bills are a different story.
The Bills made it clear that James Cook was not their goal-line back. Cook saw only four carries inside the five, as the team opted to use aging RB Latavius Murray and journeyman Ty Johnson. If Davis can win the goal-line role on this powerful offense, he could find his way to double-digit touchdowns and fantasy relevance.
27. Kimani Vidal (RB, LAC)
Positional Ranking: 42. Gus Edwards (LAC), 43. Kimani Vidal (LAC), 44. Raheem Mostert (MIA)
This is probably my biggest surprise of these rankings; however, I like Vidal as a prospect and love his landing spot. Yes, Vidal was selected with the fifth pick of the sixth round, which immediately stacks the odds against him. However, he is the first back drafted by this regime to build a team to run the ball specifically.
Not only will this team be among the top of the league in rushing attempts, but the depth chart isn’t scary. This offseason, the Chargers signed two ex-Ravens backs, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Edwards is a very steady downhill runner and Dobbins is coming back from a torn Achilles. I think the key is that neither of these backs have pass-catching prowess.
Although Vidal was not an avid pass-catcher in college, he did average 11.2 yards per reception on 18 catches last season. Plus, he has a decent athletic profile, with a 4.46 40-yard dash and a 37.5-inch vertical jump. If he finds the field on third down, this opens the door for Vidal to carve a larger role for himself if he impresses early.
Kimani Vidal advertised as a complete three down back by GM Joe Hortiz.
Complimenting him on great vision, contact balance, burst, pass catching and pass protection.
At 215 lbs, 5’8 and 1,862 yards last year Vidal has the potential to be a star RB1. pic.twitter.com/PR8ICmRwVL
— Elite Drafters (@Elite_Drafters) May 7, 2024
26. Javon Baker (WR, NE)
Positional Ranking: 67. Zay Jones (ARI), 68. Javon Baker (NEP), 69. Treylon Burks (TEN)
This team is a mess at the WR position. Thankfully for Baker, that means his draft capital doesn’t mean as much. This team does not have a clear No. 1 receiver and one of Baker or Ja'Lynn Polk could take that role.
What’s interesting is that Polk and Baker are the same athletically. Both are 6-foot-1 and their differences in weight were one pound, 40 difference of 0.02 seconds, and vertical jump separation of just half an inch. After watching the tape, I believe Baker is slightly more versatile as a WR. However, you have to consider NFL Draft capital, pushing Polk ahead for me.
25. Troy Franklin (WR, DEN)
Positional Ranking: 57. Keenan Allen (LAC), 58. Troy Franklin (DEN), 59. Rashee Rice (KC)
One of the classic situations where fantasy managers fall in love with a guy who the NFL doesn’t view nearly as valuable. I remember seeing analysts mock Franklin at the end of the first round to the Chiefs. Instead, he falls to the fourth where the Broncos quickly traded up to draft him.
Franklin is a very fun player to watch. Coming in at 6-foot-2, 176 pounds, with a 4.41-second 40-yard dash and nearly 40-inch vertical jump, the guy has the juice. Last season, he tied for third in the FBS in receiving touchdowns with 14 touchdowns in 14 games and had 1,383 yards.
Franklin lands in a decent situation where he is immediately behind an aging Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick returning from a devastating injury, and Marvin Mims Jr., who was drafted last year. That’s not a bad situation to be in. If Franklin can flash his playmaking ability in camp, he should earn a decent opportunity. At that point, we have to hope his smaller frame doesn’t get outmuscled at the NFL level.
24. Jermaine Burton (WR, CIN)
Positional Ranking: 52. Jameson Williams (DET), 53. Jermaine Burton (CIN), 54. Jakobi Meyers (LV)
Hear me out. As a die-hard Bengals fan, I want to like Burton. In some ways, it’s exciting to see him in the stripes as he was sometimes described as a “fringe first-round talent.” However, it was reported that he was completely off some teams’ draft boards due to character concerns. Considering the NFL is a league where Deshaun Watson signed a record-setting deal, that’s saying something. I’m joking, as it is unfair to even hint at comparing Burton to Watson.
The main incident reported was when he struck a female fan storming the field after Alabama was upset by Tennessee. This incident was one of the main reasons he fell to the Bengals in the third round. However, Nick Saban made it clear that the biggest thing Burton needs to work on is his “emotional maturity” (here is the article of Saban discussing Burton). It’s not often you see a college coach, let alone one of the greatest coaches of all time, throw cold water on their players around the time of the draft.
I hope Burton can stay out of trouble; however, Rashee Rice is putting on a clinic on what not to do as a young professional athlete. It’s also unfair to compare him to the recent issues of Rice; however, my goal is to illustrate how quickly things can go downhill.
Lastly, as I mentioned earlier, I am a huge Bengals fan. As a result, I feel I have a better understanding of the Bengals organization than any other team. Having said that, I think Tee Higgins will be a Bengal in the future. Yes, nothing specifically supports this, but the quotes from the team and Higgins himself have a common goal to keep him in the stripes. I believe they are waiting until next season to do what we just saw the Eagles do with their top WRs and extend both Ja'Marr Chase and Higgins.
If that comes to fruition, that would force Burton into the third role on the team. If he fills that role, we have a pretty good idea of what to expect for fantasy. Tyler Boyd, a very solid NFL WR, occupied that role for the last three years and was marginally relevant for fantasy. If you add this potential outcome to his character concerns, I see a lot of risk for a slim chance of upside.
23. Ja'Lynn Polk (WR, NE)
Positional Ranking: 49. Courtland Sutton (DEN), 50. Ja'Lynn Polk (NE), 51. Josh Downs (IND)
Polk is a very interesting prospect. Much like Ricky Pearsall, there were a few dynasty analysts who were singing his praises this offseason. This is probably lower than many people have him; however, I think this team is a mess from a pass-catching standpoint. Not only is it well known that Drake Maye is a project QB, but they also have many decent receivers.
What concerns me is that I don’t believe Polk can separate himself from the PPR machine Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, and K.J. Osborn. Plus, Javon Baker was also selected by this team in the fourth round. The reason I have Polk here is because of his draft capital (fifth pick of the second round) and because it wouldn’t take a lot for him to supplant his competition.
22. MarShawn Lloyd (RB, GB)
Positional Ranking: 37. Jaylen Warren (PIT), 38. MarShawn Lloyd (GB), 39. Rico Dowdle (DAL)
I am quite excited about Lloyd. This might be because I am a huge Aaron Jones fan, and this guy reminded me a lot of Jones as a prospect. The Packers also saw something in the USC prospect, as they selected him with the 25th pick of the third round. As an athlete, Lloyd is what you want at the RB position. Coming in at 5-foot-9 and 220 pounds, his 4.46-second 40-yard dash time is very impressive. In my opinion, his biggest issue is his ball security; however, the situation is better than it seems.
The Packers released Aaron Jones and signed Josh Jacobs to a three-year deal. In truth, Jacobs’ deal is more of a one-year deal with options than it is a true three-year deal. Also, Jacobs saw a huge decline in his efficiency last season. In my opinion, he looked like a different back than he did when he led the league in rushing yards two years ago. If his inefficiency does not improve, Lloyd might find the door ajar for a massive opportunity.
21. Blake Corum (RB, LAR)
Positional Ranking: 35. James Conner (ARI), 36. Blake Corum (LAR), 37. Jaylen Warren (PIT)
I’m going to start by saying I think Kyren Williams will be great this year. However, when a team is leaning on a fifth-round RB and drafting another on Day 2, I have to raise my eyebrows.
Last year, Williams was the RB2 in points per game and was seeing everything out of the backfield. Even though Corum was drafted two rounds before Williams was in 2022, I don’t believe Corum is any better than Williams. In fact, I believe they both play a very similar game. Neither player is flashy, but both are great in pass protection and hard-nosed running.
Because these backs project to be similar, many view Corum as more of an insurance policy for Williams than anything. Since head coach Sean McVay is known to use one back, this makes sense. However, he also has a history of relying on a single back and losing them to injury (for example, Todd Gurley and Cam Akers). As a result, I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a decent chance that Corum splits with Williams nearly 50-50. We’ve seen how lucrative this team can be for fantasy, making a split still very valuable in fantasy.
#Rams HC Sean McVay and GM Les Snead on the pathway for RB Blake Corum and WR Jordan Whittington to see the field as rookies:
“When you select these guys, there’s a vision. They’ve gotta be able to earn that… Until we get these guys in here and really start working with them,… pic.twitter.com/P437D3mFC6
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) April 28, 2024
I will release two more articles breaking down my rookies 20-11 and top 10 later this week!
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