X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Second-Year Hitters Ready to Break Out for Fantasy Baseball

Seiya Suzuki - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Kyle examines second-year hitters ready to break out for 2023 fantasy baseball. Target these top sophomore hitters as fantasy baseball sleepers and breakouts.

Second-year players who excel in the big leagues attract attention every season as they use their rookie season experiences to refine their skills during the offseason and make significant strides in their sophomore year. By examining their 2022 stats, we can identify trends and areas for improvement, while projections from reputable sources such as Steamer, ZiPS, ATC, and The BAT can help gauge their potential performance in 2023.

Let's take a closer look at some of the intriguing second-year hitters who have the potential to become future stars in the league. We can identify players poised for a breakout season through a thorough analysis of their performance in 2022, minor league stats, and 2023 projections.

After you are done here, be sure to check out our other fantasy baseball breakouts and fantasy baseball sleepers articles as well.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

Savvy fantasy baseball managers already know the "Italian Nightmare" - Vinnie Pasquantino. This is evidenced by where he's being picked in drafts, as the eighth first baseman off the board around pick 84. However, that might need to be higher as the 25-year-old out of Old Dominion has shown plenty of signs that he can break out (even more) in his second year in the bigs.

Pasquantino slashed an impressive .295/.383/.450 with ten homers, 25 RBI, and 25 runs scored over his first 258 at-bats in the MLB last season. He started extremely slow upon his call-up in late June, slashing .208/.313/.347 with three homers before the All-Star break, which led some managers to bail on him.

He then proceeded to post near-elite numbers after the All-Star break, slashing .328/.409/.489. Ultimately, his surface metrics looked great, but a few advanced metrics indicate him reaching even further heights in 2023. His 8.8% barrel rate was well above the league average, while his 47% hard-hit rate ranked among the best in the entire league. He also did a great job keeping the ball off the ground, posting a low 41% groundball rate last season.

Looking at his minor league numbers only solidifies our confidence in Vinnie P building off his successful rookie season. He consistently posted a high batting average, a high slugging percentage, a high walk rate, and a low strikeout rate.

That's what he has done so far in the majors, and there's no reason to think he won't continue improving with what he has shown us. A 25-homer season with a high average and on-base percentage feels more than attainable. I'm all in on "Pasquatch."

 

Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles

Rutschman, much like Pasquantino, took his time getting rolling during his first MLB season. He posted an uninspiring .722 OPS with five homers before the All-Star break, but his .861 OPS with eight homers post-All-Star break was closer to what the fantasy masses were expecting of the highly-touted catcher prospect.

He's the highest-drafted player on this list by a wide margin, as he was selected first overall by the Orioles in the 2019 draft. He's a switch-hitter who excels defensively, but what we're most intrigued by from the prospect is the power upside he flashed in the minors and during his brief stint in the majors last season.

The 25-year-old (this is becoming a theme) posted 23 homers between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021, and while he only hit 13 in the MLB (over 470 at-bats), his .191 ISO and .354 wOBA were more than respectable. Scouts gave him a 60/60 in the "raw power" category, and we've already seen this come to fruition.

His average exit velocity (87.9 MPH), hard-hit rate (36.8%), and barrel rate (7.9%) could all stand to improve, but he showed a high level of discipline for a rookie with a 98th percentile walk rate (13.8%) and an 88th-percentile Whiff rate in his first taste of the bigs.

The projection systems aren't expecting a giant leap from the second-year catcher, pegging him for 13-18 homers and a batting average at or below .260. I'd be on board with those projections if we expected Rutschman to maintain his hitting profile from last year.

There's an above-average chance that we'll see his barrel and hard-hit rates improve as he continues to get acclimated to MLB pitching, which gives him a higher ceiling than he's being given credit for. 20+ homers and serving as a plus in the average and OBP categories are squarely in the cards for him this season, and this is likely our last chance to snag the exciting prospect at a discount in drafts.

 

MJ Melendez, Kansas City Royals

Melendez joins Pasquantino as the second Royals player on this list, so you'd think Kansas City fans would be ecstatic to get this season started. They should take a quick peek at the starting rotation they're set to begin the season with before getting too excited. That doesn't mean Melendez can't keep the good times rolling from his debut last year, though.

The 24-year-old second-round pick in 2017 burst onto the scene in 2022, swatting 18 homers and driving 62 RBI over 460 at-bats for the perpetually-struggling Royals. His batted ball profile looked great, as he posted high marks in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and xwOBA. However, his game had some drawbacks, as he posted a low .217 average (.237 xBA) and struck out far too often (24.6% K%).

Looking back at his minor league metrics gives us some reason for optimism that he'll regress to his career mean in the batting average department. He slashed .293/.413/.620 with a .437 wOBA in his last full season at Triple-A in 2021. His strikeout issues have been persistent throughout his career, so while we can hope MLB coaching can correct some of his plate discipline issues, that's not something we can necessarily count on.

Melendez's power is real, and the projection systems back it up as they expect him to hit between 18 and 25 homers in his second MLB season. Some systems are more optimistic than others, but his minor league and MLB numbers suggest he'll post an ISO closer to .200 rather than the .176 ISO he produced last season. If that's the case, 20+ homers are well within the range of outcomes for Melendez, and that's especially important because he qualifies at a very shallow, top-heavy position at catcher.

 

Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros

While some may argue that the 25-year-old shortstop has already broken out, the promising young player still has room to grow. Pena played the most games of any sophomore on this list, logging 521 at-bats in his rookie season.

Last season, he slashed .253/.289/.426 for a .715 OPS, hitting 22 home runs with 63 RBI, 72 runs scored, and 11 stolen bases. Although his advanced metrics did not stand out, a 9.7% barrel rate was highly encouraging, and his 95th-percentile Sprint Speed indicates that his stolen base potential is sustainable. However, there are still areas for improvement, including his launch angle and hard-hit rate, which are below average.

Pena's high batting average in the low-A minor league system in 2018 and 2019 drew attention to the shortstop. His brief stint at Triple-A in 2021 (.587 SLG, .387 wOBA, .311 ISO) impressed the Astros, leading them to move on from Carlos Correa before the 2022 season.

During the regular season, Pena exceeded expectations, but his impressive playoff run cemented his place in MLB history. Pena accumulated five doubles, four homers, eight RBI, 12 runs scored, and a 1.005 OPS during the playoffs, winning both the ALCS MVP and the World Series MVP awards. He became the youngest position player to win the World Series MVP award.

Projection systems anticipate slight improvements from Pena this season, with most predicting increased stolen bases and a significantly higher walk rate. However, they see his average and home run totals either remaining steady or decreasing slightly. If Pena can improve his launch angle, increase his hard-hit rate, and maintain his stolen base potential, he could reach new heights in a dangerous Astros lineup in 2023.

 

Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs

Suzuki is the oldest player on this list at 28 years old, but he also has the advantage of having the most experience playing professional baseball. He was drafted in 2012 and made his debut in the Nippon Professional Baseball league in 2013 at the age of 19.

He made five All-Star appearances in his six seasons playing in Japan, blasting 38 homers and a .317/.433/.636 slash line in his final year with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp. He made his debut in the MLB with the Cubs last season, and while he started hot (.934 OPS with four homers and 14 RBI in April), he fizzled down the stretch and finished with an uninspiring stat line.

That being said, his advanced metrics were almost all above average, except his poor 24.8% strikeout rate. He barreled up a lot of balls (11% barrel rate), posted a respectable 41.3% hard-hit rate, and wound up with a tidy .327 xwOBA. He excelled against left-handed pitching, posting a .848 OPS with four homers, six doubles, and two triples against southpaws last season.

Projection systems have Suzuki improving on his slugging (and ISO) percentage and posting higher counting stats than last year, thanks to an entire season of at-bats. The ceiling is even higher for the seasoned second-year player as his batted ball profile and past success in the NPB indicate there could be much more meat on the bones with the outfielder in 2023.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF