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Detroit Tigers shortstop Willi Castro is a sleeper and undervalued draft target for 2021 fantasy baseball. Andrew Ericksen explains why Smyly is an SS to watch based on ADP.
The Detroit Tigers currently have five players ranked amongst the top-25 of MLB.com’s prospect rankings. No other team has more than two.
However, the most intriguing fantasy sleeper for 2021 amidst Detroit’s roster might be someone who wasn’t included on that list, 23-year-old Willi Castro. He’s no longer prospect-eligible with 229 MLB at-bats under his belt, but he’s made the most of those at-bats and looks primed to play a key role on the team this year.
Last year, Castro managed to put together the best offensive season of any Tiger by just about any measure. And there’s plenty of reason to believe that the best is yet to come for him.
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2020 Recap
Castro began the 2020 season at the team’s alternate site, then joined the big league in mid-August, about four weeks into the season. He played in 36 games and slashed .349/.381/.550 with six home runs, 24 RBI and 21 runs. No other Tiger who logged over 100 plate appearances reached even .300 last year and Castro’s .550 slugging percentage led all Tigers.
He’s got a great, smooth power swing that couldn’t be contained by the deep walls of Detroit’s Comerica Park.
Willi Castro: Third baseman, power hitter and giver of the lead.#DetroitRoots pic.twitter.com/iUMdzvXAGj
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) August 12, 2020
In August, Castro was primarily hitting in the lower-third of the lineup. Then, after a few weeks of hitting over .300, he was moved up to fifth in the lineup, where he remained for a few weeks before lining up in the two-spot for his final 12 games of the year. He reached base in each of his last 15 games of the year, recording at least one hit in 13 of those 15 games.
2020 Expected Stats
Castro’s contact numbers were heavily backed up by his 2020 expected stats. He ranked amongst the top 10% of the majors in xBA (.299) and xwOBACON (.453).
As for his underlying power stats, he ranked in the 82nd percentile in the league in xSLG (.498). However, he placed in the bottom 6% of the league in exit velocity (85.3) and in the bottom 18% of the league in hard-hit rate (31.9%).
Castro was able to neutralize those concerning metrics by limiting easy outs off his bat. He didn’t register a single infield fly ball in 2020 and had a weak-hit rate of just 6.4%.
2021 Tigers Lineup
The Tigers added a few veteran bats this offseason, such as Robbie Grossman, Nomar Mazara and Wilson Ramos. It’s unclear exactly how the Tigers’ lineup will look this year. Grossman and Jonathan Schoop could be at the top in front of Miguel Cabrera, but a strong spring training for Castro could make him too tough to resist as a number-two hitter.
At the very least, he should find himself somewhere on the outskirts of the heart of the order. His versatility as both a contact hitter and a power producer allows him to be equally effective from the six-spot as he could be from the two-spot, just in slightly fewer at-bats. If he ends up hitting around sixth, he should see more RBI opportunities.
Castro will be the everyday shortstop for the Tigers as long as he remains healthy and productive. Niko Goodrum is slated to be a super-utility player for the team, but he’s probably going to spell third baseman Isaac Paredes more often than Castro. On those occasions, Castro would probably shift to third base, where he logged eight starts in 2020.
Draft Position
Castro’s current ADP is around 270. In a lot of standard mixed leagues, he’s going to go undrafted.
Castro’s biggest hurdle toward prime fantasy value could be his positional eligibility. In most formats, he should be eligible at only third base and shortstop, the two deepest positions in fantasy. He’s about the 30th shortstop and the 40th third baseman off the board right now.
If he ends up producing about 75% of what he did last year, he’s going to be hard to justify rostering in most mixed leagues.
However, if he can match or improve upon his production from last year, he’s going to be a great asset to have on your bench. He could be a strong middle infield or corner infield starter or a good player to fill your utility spot. He can also be a great insurance plan if you draft a few risky, streaky or injury-prone shortstops or third basemen like Javier Baez, Marcus Semien or Kris Bryant.
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