X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2019 NBA Draft: Five Players Most Likely To Bust

Now that we know who was drafted where, it's time to start analyzing what those picks mean. That analysis can come in the form of some of the positive looks at players and situations that we'll be publishing here at RotoBaller, but it's also useful sometimes to look at players who might not live up to their hype.

In fantasy basketball, rookies are already a risk, so avoiding the really risky ones is a good strategy to make sure you don't end up behind the competition. That can especially be true in dynasty leagues, where spending an early pick in a rookie draft on a risky player can set you back big time.

Below, you'll find the five players that I see as most likely to be busts from the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including NBA Writer of the Year, Best NFL Series, MLB Series, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Cam Reddish - SF - Atlanta Hawks

I did not like what Atlanta did on Thursday. They traded up to four, but took De'Andre Hunter there instead of Jarrett Culver, and then they used the 10th pick to grab Duke's Cam Reddish.

As will be a trend in this article, Reddish's lone college season was a disappointment, and his lack of production presents a lot of question marks heading into his rookie season. Reddish shot just 35.6 percent from the field. He had one of Duke's worst rebounding rates, was behind the team's three other star Freshmen -- Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, and Tre Jones -- in assist rate, and had a box plus-minus that was the worst of any of Duke's players who played at least 500 minutes. Reddish faded into the background with the Blue Devils.

At this point, Reddish is basically an inaccurate volume shooter with the skills to create his own shot. I'd like to see him get more aggressive defensively and more involved in the passing game, but who know if that'll happen, because the first thing Reddish has to fix is his shot and his finishing ability. Those are tough things to fix, and we've seen a lot of wings wash out of the league because they haven't been able to fix those things. Reddish is an intriguing pick for Atlanta and can be used as a secondary creator beside Trae Young, but without improvements in his shot, defenses will sag off of him, negating the advantage of using him as a ball-handling wing.

 

Cameron Johnson - SG - Phoenix Suns

I don't hate choosing Cameron Johnson in the draft if you chose him somewhere around the end of the first round, but the Suns reached big time by making him a lottery choice.

First, the pros. Johnson has good size -- 6'8'' -- and is a very good shooter, connecting on 45.7 percent of his 5.8 three-point attempts per game last year. He scored in the 97th percentile on spot ups last year, and he was also a strong scorer off cuts and screens as well.

But Johnson was also a fifth-year senior who is older than Devin Booker, and his age means that a lot of his cons might be things that he'll struggle to correct at this point in his career. Johnson's far less dangerous when he has to put the ball on the floor, which means his offensive role is likely just to be an off-guard. The Suns already have that in Devin Booker, unless they plan to use Booker at the one on a full-time basis, a move that feels like it isn't the best thing this team could do.

Johnson is also not the defender that you'd guess he might be based on his size, and that makes me worry that he'll struggle to stay on the floor. If he's a three-point shooter who can't drive the ball and doesn't give you much defensively, can he maintain a role on an NBA team?

 

Tyler Herro - SG - Miami Heat

Let's see how Heat fan and NBA writer Nekias Duncan reacted to the moment Herro was picked:

and then

and then

I think this is all pretty indicative of how I feel about the Heat picking Herro here, which is that they spent the 13th pick on a shooter who'll always be a big question mark on the other end of the court, which means he's basically got to nail the shooting part of things if he wants to be an effective NBA player.

The problem is that Herro shot just 35.5 percent from three on 6.3 three-point attempts per game last year, and he only scored in the 70th percentile nationally on a per possession basis on spot up attempts. That number isn't bad, but compare it to some of the other notable shooters from this class -- Cameron Johnson's 97th percentile, Nickeil Alexander-Walker's 82nd percentile -- and you leave a little disappointed.

Herro's free throw percentage of 93.5 percent and his shot form do suggest that he should be more consistent from deep moving forward, but even then, the other parts of his game don't project to improve enough for me to trust Herro's NBA future.

 

Darius Bazley - SF - Oklahoma City Thunder

Bazley's a risk because we just don't know what Bazley is at this point. Bazley chose to bypass college and train on his own last year, but ever since the NBA banned players from going right to the NBA from high school, the list of players who did something else other than college isn't a huge list of successes. Last year, Mitchell Robinson showed that he might be changing that, but names like Emmanuel Mudiay, Ricky Ledo, and Jeremy Tyler don't inspire much confidence in this kind of a decision.

One of the toughest things about analyzing Bazley is that we don't have a ton of tape on him, and what we do have is basically just highlight reels from high school. Because of this, it's hard to know what he does well and doesn't do well. From what I've seen, he can put the ball on the floor, drive, and finish, but he's also a small forward who can't really shoot consistently and is going to need a lot of work on the defensive end to be a competent defender. That leaves me wondering a lot about what his NBA role will be. The Thunder don't need him to be an initiator, and while I guess they could use him as someone who gets the ball kicked out to him to the drive with, him developing a jumper is what will help him stick around the league. Can he do it?

 

Nassir Little - SF - Portland Trail Blazers

College production is an important part of the evaluation process, which is why Nassir Little went from a potential top-10 pick before his college season to being the 25th pick in the actual draft. That's a pretty big fall. Let's look at how it happened.

In his one season at North Carolina, Little played 18.2 minutes per game, averaging 9.8 points on 47.8 percent shooting while hitting 26.9 percent of his threes. He also had 4.6 rebounds and 0.7 assists per contest. Of players to play at least 100 minutes, Little was ninth on his UNC team in box plus/minus. A promising high schooler, Little's college career had him looking like a guy who was out of place, someone who wasn't contributing much offensively or defensively.

Little fits into that mold of forwards who had the ball in their hands a lot in high school and needed to develop a jumper in college, but then failed to do that. Portland isn't a team that needs to give Little the ball; for him to succeed beside Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, he'll need to develop into someone who can play more off the ball.

Little bulked up last year, which means he should be able to get in the paint and muck it up with bigger players more, so maybe we see Portland use him as the four some? But then comes the question of how effective can he score in that position? What's the spacing like with him on the floor? Will he move the ball around, or is Little going to be a black hole offensively? All these questions contribute to why I see him as one of the biggest risks from this year's first round. Guys who don't improve from high school to college and have this many question marks tend to not do so well in the NBA.

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Alec Burks14 mins ago

Questionable On Friday
Dean Wade30 mins ago

Won't Play Against 76ers
OG Anunoby56 mins ago

Ruled Out Again Friday
Nick Senzel9 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray9 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele9 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons11 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler12 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson12 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele12 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle12 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans12 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic12 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney12 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga12 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant12 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith13 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen13 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara13 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele13 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes13 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson13 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic13 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar13 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton13 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert13 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones13 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Rhys McKee13 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Chidi Njokuani14 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson14 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo14 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley14 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque14 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez14 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler15 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel15 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley15 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal16 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes16 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis16 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer18 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw18 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler18 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager18 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz18 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds20 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano22 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad23 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov23 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto23 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin23 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard23 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins23 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist23 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear23 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard2 days ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson2 days ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen2 days ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers2 days ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers2 days ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown3 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff3 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins3 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams3 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT3 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn3 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield3 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR3 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras3 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen3 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb3 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift3 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson3 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell3 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers4 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson4 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan4 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson4 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla4 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo4 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Marvin Harrison Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Mock Draft: First-Rounder With Trades

The 2024 NFL Draft is less than a month away. Yet, that isn’t soon enough for football fans. While everyone wants to discuss the quarterback class and the first few picks, the NFL Draft doesn’t end after the first round. Teams will find starters and star players on the second and third days of the... Read More


Kyren Williams - Fantasy Football, Waiver Wire Pickups

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact- Part III

Throughout the NFL's offseason, many players see their fantasy football values fluctuate based on their movement and personnel decisions by their respective teams. Throughout this series, we have identified 12 players who have seen their fantasy football value increase over the free-agency period. The final big fantasy football value movement will come after the NFL... Read More


UFL DFS PICKS, FANTASY FOOTBALL, DRAFTKINGS, FANDUEL

UFL DFS Value Plays: Week 1 Bargain Bin for DraftKings Including E.J. Perry, CJ Marable, Jace Sternberger, more

Welcome to the Week 1 edition of RotoBaller's UFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players in DraftKings' Week 1 UFL contests. Each week during the UFL 2024 season and postseason, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit for DraftKings'... Read More


2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More