RADIO
We continue our long-running series of articles debating fantasy rankings with a super-utility player that suddenly became a fantasy force in 2017. The question remains: is it repeatable?
RotoBaller's expert writers have come up with our consensus rankings for mixed leagues, but that doesn't mean we agreed on everything. In this space, we'll hear from rankers with the biggest differences of opinion on a well-known player and have them defend their position against each other.
Today, the topic is Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Chris Taylor. Kyle Bishop sees him as a top-100 fantasy player, while Pierre Camus isn't buying into last year's numbers just yet. Let's get ready to rumble!
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2018 Draft Rankings Debate - Chris Taylor
| Rank | Tier | Player | Position | Kyle | Nick | Pierre | Jeff | Harris | Bill |
| 107 | 8 | Chris Taylor | 2B/SS/OF | 90 | 91 | 176 | 103 | 133 | 93 |
Kyle Bishop's Ranking: #90 overall
Entering last season, Chris Taylor was a former top prospect who, like most prospects with the misfortune of coming through the Mariners system, hadn't accomplished much at the MLB level. Across three partial seasons in the bigs, Taylor had amassed a .598 OPS, a 27% strikeout rate, and just one home run across 318 plate appearances before Seattle gave up and shipped him to the Dodgers.
Something had to change, and something did - Taylor's swing. Working with the same hitting consultant who unlocked J.D. Martinez and fellow Dodger Justin Turner, Taylor added distance and velocity to his fly balls and hit fewer balls on the ground. The net result was a breakout year in which Taylor put up a .288-21-85-72-17 line while maintaining eligibility at second, short, and outfield. During the season, Taylor solidified himself as the Dodgers' leadoff hitter, and he continued to put up terrific numbers during the postseason.
Pierre Camus' Ranking: #176 overall
Call me conservative when it comes to judging players with small or no track records of success at the Major League level, but at least I'm consistent in this regard. I've already said I'm not willing to overpay for Tommy Pham and Taylor represents a similarly risky commodity. If anything, Taylor offers value at multiple positions where offense is harder to come by, which makes him a great MI option, but I guarantee I can think of 12 players at second base or shortstop that might provide equal or better value, most of which come at a far better draft day price.
Taylor hit .288, which is fine on its own, except that it was fueled by a .361 BABIP and slightly sub-par plate discipline (0.35 BB/K). The 21 home runs weren't just a career high, they were a complete anomaly. Taylor hit a total of 22 HR in his previous five minor league seasons combined. That's not a small sample size, folks. The speed is legit, but we're not going to ever see 30+ steals in a season, so again we may have already seen the best he has to offer in that category. If you're looking for somebody who can get you 15 HR, 20 SB and an average around .280, you could opt for Orlando Arcia with an ADP of 158, Andrelton Simmons at 210, Cesar Hernandez at 256, or Josh Harrison at 262.
Alternately, you could sacrifice a bit of average and take Freddy Galvis, Ian Kinsler, Tim Anderson, or any of the options Kyle mentioned toward the end. Speaking of, let's look at those comps quickly. DeJong hit 22 homers at the Double-A level in 2016 and had smacked 13 in his first 48 games at Triple-A before the getting the call and continuing to mash in the majors. The Cards were convinced enough to give him a six-year, $26 million deal before this season even kicks off! That explains why I'm highest on him among all our rankers.
If Kyle is so down on Happ, why is his ranking higher than all of our rankers (108) and barely behind Taylor? He might be the best comp to Taylor, but I also happen to be lower on Happ than most for the same reasons. Moncada was the second-ranked prospect in all of baseball last year, so let's not pretend Taylor's ceiling approaches what Moncada is capable of.
The fact is that Chris Taylor was never a top-100 prospect or expected to have the kind of season he did in 2017. As Nicholas Stellini of Fangraphs said, "Nobody ever looked at Taylor and saw a serious power threat, or a player who would prove to offer real value on both sides of the ball..." One full season of success shouldn't be enough to jump on a player that may or may not repeat it. If I'm not taken a proven guy in the first few rounds at middle infield positions, I'm waiting for one of the numerous value picks, all of whom are still more proven and reliable than Taylor.
