Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password

[X] Rankings: 2013 Outfield Rankings with ADP Comparison

Ryan BraunOutfield is a slightly deceptive position in fantasy baseball, and that may be even more true this year than in years past. Each year, there are lots of real studs at the top, and lots of really solid players on the middle. Naturally, my first reaction was that I can wait to draft a top OF since they’re so deep. But looking back at the past three years, what I actually see each year is an accelerating and consistent drop off as we move down the end-of-season OF ranks. Consider the # of OF ranked, at the end of the year, in each segment of players for 2012, 2011, 2010:

2012 2011 2010 Average
Overall Ranks ... 1-50 16 15 14 15
Overall Ranks . 51-100 19 13 18 ~17
Overall Ranks 101-150 12 9 12 11
Overall Ranks 151-200 8 7 5 ~7
Overall Ranks 201-250 5 7 7 ~6

Get the picture? Each year, the top 30-35 OF can be counted on to be extremely productive players who produce 8th-round value or better while finishing in the top 100 overall. But the paucity of outfielders who've finished 100-250 shows that few players outside the top guys can be counted upon to put up good #’s.

To put it another way: OF is very top-heavy, and if you’re in a league that has 4-5 starting OFs, you can secure significant competitive advantage by ensuring that you have more of the top-heavy guys than your competitors. Let's quickly look at where OF are being drafted this year. Data from Mock Draft Central shows the following:

  • # of OF drafted in top 50: 16
  • # of OF drafted from 51 - 100: 11
  • # of OF drafted from 101 - 150: 15
  • # of OF drafted from 151 - 200: 10
  • # of OF drafted from 201 - 250: 11

Consider where OF usually finish in the rankings, and where they are being drafted this year. The key strategic tidbit is this: too many OF are being drafted in the 101-250 range and not enough from the 51-100 positions, which has historically been the most OF-rich area of the draft. So, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on 3 or 4 top OF in the first 9 rounds of the draft.

One other key piece of OF strategy: you MUST draft a good balance of stats here. If you load up on HR / RBI or R / SB you will be hard-pressed to close the statistical gaps with the rest of your roster positions, and in trying to do so you will be forced into tough choices: do you draft the best player on the board or take the player who will give you more balance? Ideally, you should be able to do both. Don't wind up with Giancarlo Stanton, Jay Bruce AND Adam Dunn, because you won't be able to dig yourself out the AVG and R hole without passing on better players.

Now that you have your OF strategy, let’s dive into the tiers and identify some of the best and worst value plays to target and avoid:

(Looking for more fantasy baseball rankings? Check out our friends at FantasyPros!)

Tier 1: The Elite. I was strongly contemplating putting Braun and Trout in their own tier, but the truth is with just a little regression from either, and a full healthy year from Kemp, these four guys will be on the same level. BUT, you should obviously still take Trout or Braun over Kemp or McCutchen, and I'd take either top OF over Miguel Cabrera for the reasons I highlighted above. Between the two, Trout put up one of the best seasons in the history of baseball as a 20-year-old. Braun is the new Hebrew Hammer and he is unstoppable. Flip a coin.

Tier 2: The Studs. These guys could all be elite this year, but they're nevertheless clearly a rung below the top four right now. Each of these guys is going to put up #1 OF numbers, but each also has some small pockmarks that will hold them back from elite status: Stanton’s horrid lineup and mediocre AVG, Upton's inconsistency, health issues for Bautista, Hamilton and Carlos Gonzalez. Hamilton is an acceptable 2nd-rounder, but brings better value as a 3rd round pick. You can read our full analysis on Hamilton in this Fantasy Draft Prep piece. Stanton is my favorite here-- he could put up 1st-round numbers and is the only player in the MLB capable of hitting 50 HR. I would take him ahead of Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez and Jose Bautista, all of whom are giving you very fair value in the 2nd round. Jones and Heyward are the young guys fresh off breakouts-- they could take further strides this year, and if either slips to the 3rd round in your draft, they are very good picks with room for upside. Matt Holliday is an absolute steal with a 55 ADP; it's shocking that he's going that low, and I would jump on him in the 3rd or 4th round without a second thought. I think at this point in his career, Holliday will be the perennially underrated superstar, kind of like Paul Konerko, who puts up big year after big year, but none monstrous enough to catch too much attention.

Tier 3: Highly Respectable Guys. Here’s where we get into the real meat of the 2013 OF crop. Ideally, you should have two guys within the top 4 tiers, though three would better. Every guy in this tier fits into one of these questions: “Can he repeat career-year performance?”, “Can he bounceback?”, or “Can he consolidate skills growth and break into the next level?” Some of the ADPs are out of control: Gonzalez, Craig and Harper are going too early for my taste considering the first hasn’t topped 30 HR since his 2010 healthy shoulder, the second hasn’t topped 470 AB ever in his career, and the third, though really, really good and young, is being inflated by The Hype Machine. I love B.J. Upton’s 25-35 line, but he's going in the 2nd round!!!! At that price his .240 AVG makes me wanna puke! To achieve 2nd-round value while batting .240, B.J. would need to go 30-35 with 85 RBI and 95 R, capisce? As for the undervalued guys... wow, Hunter Pence has really fallen out of favor. This guy is a PERFECT example of how the hordes lead you astray: in 2011 he has the same year he always does but with a .300 AVG, so in 2012 he gets drafted in the top 30 and... has the same year he always does but with a .250 AVG. So, of course, now he's a bargain. He is a lock for .275-25-85-85-15 and is a steal in the 7th or 8th round. Other nicely priced guys are Austin Jackson around ~100 and Shin-Soo Choo at 80. Gordon, Ellsbury and Cespedes are all nice in the 50-60 range, with Centipede being my favorite, but Ellsbury having the most upside for obvious reasons. Check out RotoBaller's Fantasy Draft Prep article on Cespedes.

Tier 4: Steady as They Go. With very few exceptions, this entire tier is full of solid vets who've been around the block once or twice. All of them should produce like #2-3 OFs, but all of them have some downside due to age, injuries, or over-achievement in 2012. If you're in a 12-team 3-OF league, you probably shouldn't own any starting OF past this tier. I won't touch on every guy, but here are some who might outperform their current ADP: Beltran, Victorino, Ichiro, Hunter, Markakis, Crawford, Cruz and Ethier. Some overvalued guys include: Rios, Melky, Bourn and Trumbo. RotoBaller believes that people always undervalue the vets and this sets up many nice opportunities within the ultra-rich 100-150 range (9th-12th round) of the draft.

Tier 5: #4 and #5 OFs. Outfielders in 40-60 range should occupy the #4 and #5 OF slots in deeper leagues. There's a wide mix of players here, from the solid and unspectacular (Kubel, Swisher, Prado, Hart, Pagan, Crisp), to the players whose breakouts were so unexpected that it seems as if regression is all but guaranteed (Reddick, Aoki, Davis), to the guys we're hoping breakout (Revere, De Aza, Cain), and also the bounceback candidates (Stubbs, Young, and Gardner). By the time these guys are available, I'll have at least 4 OF, so I can afford to gamble a bit, and that means high upside with low ADPs: Morse, Revere, Cuddyer and Kubel could all put up very solid numbers at bargain prices, but the guys I really, really like here are Stubbs, Gardner, Fowler, Cain, Ross and Young. All of these guys can be had near the end of drafts and will offer serious return at their current rates.

Tier 7: The Leftovers. Many of these guys saw significant time on the waiver wire or DL last year, and many of them will again in 2013. Some of them will provide some great hot-stretch stats for a few weeks or months, but it's safe to say you can overlook most of them on draft day without missing out on much that you can't scoop up from the wire when you need to fill a need. That said, there are a few who you should keep an eye on, as I seem them as good bets to put up some solid stretches and end-of-year numbers: Werth, Moss, Duda and Martin.

And if you've missed them, be sure to also check out's other pre-season 2013 fantasy baseball positional rankings for more in-depth analysis:


More Recent Articles


Week 12 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More

Colts Conundrum: What To Do With Marlon Mack Hurt

Hello, my name is Eric Samulski, and I spent all my FAAB on Brian Hill last week. Phew! I’m glad we got that out of the way. Now that that’s on the table, we can talk honestly about this week's biggest running back decision: How the Colts will replace Marlon Mack, who just underwent surgery on... Read More

NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 12) - Targets and Avoids

Sunday was one of the worst Sunday's Vegas has had all season and remaining entrants in survivor pools nearly had the same fate. However, the Vikings rallied from a 20-0 halftime deficit, the 49ers scored late, and the Cowboys win was much narrower than it should have been. The Saints, Bills, and Ravens took care... Read More

Offensive Line Rankings Analysis: Week 12

Apologies for not making it out last week. I welcomed my daughter into the world, and while I would have loved the distraction of looking at the ability of offensive lines, that wasn't going to happen. Moving onto Week 12, the outcome of your season-long leagues is now taking shape and you know if you... Read More

Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery: Kenny Golladay

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody else on your bench. Disaster Recovery is here to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting and to help you decide if you should... Read More

Wide Receiver Leaderboards Entering the Final Stretch - NFL Next Gen Stats

We've consumed our first "double-digit week" set of games. That means we've entered the final part of the season and, in fact, the fantasy football playoffs are closer than you may realize. There are just three more weeks to go until we hit Week 14 and celebrate our presence in the run for the chip,... Read More

Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Jeff Driskel, Deebo Samuel, Kenyan Drake

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More

Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 12

Rotoballers, if you're not active on the waiver wire this time of year, there are only two reasonable explanations: 1) You're sitting at 3-8 (or worse) and don't find it enjoyable to play spoiler to your league mates, or 2) You're 8-3 (or better) and have nothing but matchup-proof studs on your starting lineup and... Read More

FAAB Bidding - Week 12 Waiver Wire Targets

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will... Read More

Week 12 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

This could be the most exciting installment of waiver wire adds in a while. Not that any of these choices are necessarily league-winners but at least we have a bunch of new names to ponder. Bye weeks are nearly over but this one will be particularly tough with the high-scoring Chiefs, Vikings, Chargers, and Cardinals... Read More

Week 12 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Almost out of time to make that last push for the playoffs--no time like the present to squeak out a win because you picked the right defense. Below are RotoBaller's Week 12 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 12 of the NFL and... Read More

Week 12 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

It's Week 12, and the fantasy football playoffs are just around the corner. Teams are jostling for playoff position both in the real world and the fantasy world. You gotta have the right kicker at the right time in the right matchup, and it matters now more than ever. The margin for error in these... Read More

Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 12. Some of you are concentrating on building lineups that will commandeer a spot in the fantasy playoffs, while others are making slight adjustments to teams that have already secured their place in the postseason.... Read More

Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

Week 11 is behind us and we're getting closer and closer to the end of the fantasy regular season. For some of us, Week 12 represents the final chance to get into the postseason, while for others we have another week or two left. Here, to help you get ready for the playoffs, is a... Read More

Week 12 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

With fantasy football leagues only a couple weeks away from their playoffs, this is not the time for teams to be short a tight end. Not only do fantasy footballers have no Travis Kelce or Hunter Henry during this crucial week in their fantasy seasons, they do not get to take advantage of using a... Read More