March 20, 2016

Nick Mariano profiles four MLB second basemen who will disappoint fantasy owners in 2016. These players are potential busts and should be avoided in drafts.

Okay, so we need to begin with a relative definition for bust as I’m using it. This doesn’t mean the player will be absolutely worthless and do nothing in 2016. What it does mean is that they won’t be returning value on where you drafted them. Below I take a look at five second basemen who I believe fall into this category.

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Overvalued Second Basemen

Addison Russell, Cubs

Yes, you can play him at shortstop as well, but he has second base eligibility and he jumps out to me as going way too high thus far. NFBC ADP data has him being taken as the ninth second baseman off the board with an average pick of 137. He is 20^th in our RotoBaller consensus rankings, so you can see he is a prime candidate for this.

Here’s the issue, that ADP of his is 33 spots higher than Dustin Pedroia and 63 spots higher than his teammate Ben Zobrist. I’m willing to admit some margin of error with Zobrist’s ADP here since I’m sure he was drafted lower before he signed with Chicago. You’re paying for way too much of the upper-range of his outcomes here, because while the power could spike with improved plate discipline.

The other side of the coin is that he continues to see an uptick in offerings outside of the zone and failing to convert, as was the case in 2015 as the year progressed. When you pair an unimpressive 18.2 LD% and 20.4 soft% with a .324 BABIP, I’m not struck with confidence in that average staying in the .240’s even. Sure, he could grow into a powerful bat and even if he bats ninth for the Cubs, that lineup has plenty of potency, but you're paying for far too much of his ceiling based on today's data.

Anthony Rendon, Nationals

Rendon’s 2015 was derailed by injuries, and I don’t want this to be entirely based on that. You can’t ignore the injury history and how completely zapped his speed was, but outside of that he also had to do a lot to replicate his 2014.

He’ll only be 26 this season, well within prime territory, but he needs both the speed or power to show up in order to have any hope of returning value on his current average pick of 71 (as the fourth second baseman off the board). Adam McFadden did well to point out in his Fangraphs player card blurb for Rendon that 11 of his 21 homers in 2014 were “Just Enough” according to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker. Now he did hit for power in college so I'm not saying he's a total slouch, but he has yet to show it in earnest at the major-league level.

He’s suffered from significant lower-half injuries in 2009 (tore ligaments in right ankle), 2010 (broken right ankle), 2012 (broken left ankle), and now 2015 (sprained MCL in left knee). If he stays healthy then perhaps his speed can shine again with 15-20 SBs, but it's hard to imagine Washington running his as aggressively based on last year. Now you’re pleading for good fortune and paying for a 2014 that looks to be the result of power and health outliers for Rendon. That's a heavy bag to hold.

DJ LeMahieu, Rockies

Don’t expect him to be a Top-12 mixed league asset in 2016, as 2015 saw most things go right for him and it barely got him on the cusp. He’s being drafted as the 11^th second baseman right now, with an average pick of 148 according to NFBC data.

Honestly, I think most of his growth is sustainable. He stopped trying to pull the ball as much (-6.9% from last year) and in using the whole field with a 54.5 GB% and an improved 26 LD% (from 20.5% in 2014), LeMahieu saw his average jump up to .301 on the year. That .362 BABIP is still very high though, and even if his average drops from .301 to about .285, his value takes a decent hit considering his average, steals, and runs scored are all of his value.

So to those other points of value, he went from stealing 10 bases on 20 attempts in 2014 to stealing 23 on 26 attempts last year. He needs to maintain that high level of efficiency to float this draft slot since he will only be hitting five homers for you. We also know how Colorado’s offense works, as you may look at the 85 runs as bankable as a leadoff hitter, but in 318 home PAs he got 56 of those runs versus only 29 runs on 302 road PAs. Do you draft him here just to platoon him? That's kind of lousy. Be careful.

Logan Forsythe, Rays

Forsythe came out of nowhere in 2015 to provide the Rays with career highs in runs (69), homers (17), RBIs (68), steals (9), and average (.281). You know the drill, when a player has a year that is quite different than their career trends dictate, we have to investigate.

The most popular signal is BABIP, where he did have a rather high .323 mark compared to his past two seasons of .255 and .268, though in 2012 he did post a .316 mark. Is spray chart didn’t change, his hard contact rate was higher in 2012 and 2013, and his soft contact actually shot up 4.2% from last year. He walked a little more, struck out a little less, but nothing here is big enough to call for such huge growth unless you believe that finally getting consistent playing time really locked him in.

His average batted ball distance was good for 161^st in the league with 278.56 feet, which was certainly better than his finishing 212^th in 2014 (at 270.78 feet) but this looks much more like luck than skill. People are paying for a 15/10/.280 bat that is going to end up giving them 10/7/.260.

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