San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Fantasy Football Analysis & Team Outlook

 

San Francisco 49ers Offseason Changes

Offseason Acquisitions – WR Steve Johnson

No Longer on the Roster – N/A

After years of being completely irrelevant, the NFC West has arguably grown into the toughest division in all of football. Yes, it helps when the reigning Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks reside in that very division but a large portion of the credit for the NFC West revival has to go to the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers were a trendy sleeper team prior to the arrival of Head Coach Jim Harbaugh in 2011 and have since developed into a dominant football team. As far as fantasy is concerned, San Francisco uses a fairly run-heavy offensive attack which shows when evaluating the value of individual players.

 

San Francisco 49ers Quarterback

On the heels of a brand new contract extension, many expect Colin Kaepernick to improve immensely this season. The exciting aspect about Kaepernick’s relevancy is his ability to scramble outside the pocket, netting you points with his legs. Let’s face it, quarterbacks who can score in multiple ways end up becoming more attractive fantasy options if for no other reason than entertainment value. After all, fantasy is supposed to be fun so why not draft a guy you enjoy watching play?

That’s all fine and dandy but if you actually intend to win, “fun” doesn’t show up in the box score. Kaepernick compiled 3,197 passing yards during the 2013 season, just good enough to crack the top 20 at the position. Granted, we’ve established the appeal he possesses is his running ability so his 524 rushing yards certainly help matters. The problem lies within the claim that Kaepernick’s upside is a reason to believe in him when in reality he’s kind of already reached his upside as a runner. His 524 rushing yards is a lot for a quarterback, especially when you consider Cam Newton ran for just 61 more yards than Kaepernick.

Do we really expect Kaep to break the 600 mark? Of course not. So what about his upside as a passer? Well, the 49ers only threw the ball 416 times last season, which again, is less than the 473 Cam Newton threw for. In other words, Colin Kaepernick is Cam Newton light. San Francisco simply does not throw the ball enough to cling to Kaepernick’s misunderstood “upside” as a reason for drafting him too high. You should, however, draft him for his actual value. He’s a solid quarterback to grab that rounds out the top 10. That would place him at about an eighth rounder which is completely fine given his abilities. There is nothing wrong with rolling with Kaepernick as your fantasy starter just make sure you’re drafting him for the right reasons and don’t reach for him based on his misconceived upside.

 

San Francisco 49ers Wide Receivers

Whenever a team is highly run-oriented like the Niners, the effects are felt throughout the receiving corps. Such is the case for Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, and newly acquired Steve Johnson. Between Colin Kaepernick only being the full time starter  for one year and Michael Crabtree only appearing in five games last year due to injury, it’s hard to believe the two have never actually played a full season together. That leaves it fairly difficult to utilize Crabtree’s stats with Kaepernick given the extremely small sample size.

The best way to analyze Michael Crabtree’s fantasy value is to consider his ranking among other wide receivers. Crabtree tends to just miss out on a top 20 wide receiver ranking, and is projected as around a sixth rounder depending on the type of  league you play in. That’s a fair ranking when you consider the players around him; fellow receivers like T.Y. Hilton and Julian Edelman as well as running backs Steven Jackson and Rashad Jennings are in the same ballpark as Crabtree. At that point in the draft, you’re probably looking more toward team need than huge draft value - so if Crabtree fills a hole for you, go for it. Crabtree is a talented player for sure but unless we see a complete overhaul in how San Francisco runs their offense, it’s likely that he will miss out on a top 20 fantasy year at wide receiver.

As for his teammates, Anquan Boldin had a solid year during the time Crabtree missed, finishing in the mid-teens in receiving yards and fantasy points depending on your league settings. That, of course, will be nearly impossible for Boldin to repeat given the fact that Crabtree is now healthy and is still presumed to be the Niners number one receiver. Boldin should be owned in all leagues for sure, but his value is pretty much capped as a bye week fill-in right now.

The third member of this 49ers wide receiver trio is former Buffalo Bill Steve Johnson. Once Johnson was traded to San Francisco, there was some immediate chatter regarding a rejuvenation in his career now that he’s on a much better team. Hate to break it to you folks, Steve Johnson’s fantasy relevancy is now pretty much moot. He went from being the number one option on a team that doesn’t like to throw at all, to the third wide receiver option on a team that likes to throw the ball just a tiny bit more. Oh, and there's also Vernon Davis to into the mix as a primary receiving option. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it until you’re sick of hearing it: the 49ers simply do not throw the ball enough. There is just no way they can support all three receivers, and also Vernon Davis. If Crabtree gets hurt again then sure maybe, maybe, Steve Johnson is worth a look. But he won’t be on any of my teams until then.

 

San Francisco 49ers Running Backs

They call him Frank “Goonies Never Say Die” Gore (well they don’t but they should.) Frank Gore simply refuses to go away. Every year fantasy writers talk about how Gore is aging and done and that it’s time for one of the young 49ers running backs to take the helm.

The clutter behind Gore only seems to be growing now that the team has drafted rookie Carlos Hyde out of Ohio State. So, is this the year we finally begin to see a changing of the guard? Is “maybe” an acceptable answer? Gore was ninth in rushing yards last season with 1,128 so we can’t exactly write him off entirely. Reports out of camp indicate Gore losing about 50 carries this year to the other running backs on the team.

Where those carries go is completely up in the air at this point. On top of Carlos Hyde the 49ers still roster Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James, and Marcus Lattimore. For all we know they could all go to one guy, as unlikely as that is. The true handcuff to Gore in the past has been Kendall Hunter, but now he has torn his ACL and is out for the season. Even before that though, the Niners had drafted a fresh face, so Hunter’s days of being number two may very well have been over. LeMichael James has some upside, but also has an injury of his own and will probably not be ready until the start of the regular season. If you’re looking for a handcuff on this team, you might as well go with the upside guy in Carlos Hyde. Gore should still be a solid low-end RB2. Even with a Chris Johnson-esque decline he should still be better than most of the running backs ranked behind him.

 

San Francisco 49ers Tight Ends

A contract holdout is never fun in the NFL but Vernon Davis is simply too good and too important to the 49ers that this should have little to no impact on his 2014 campaign. Davis was fifth among tight ends in yards at 850 and his 2014 ranking reflects that stat. His 19 red-zone targets were good enough for second best in the league among tight ends, trailing only Jimmy Graham.

If you want some reassurance as to why it will be nearly impossible to support two wide receivers in San Francisco let alone three, Vernon Davis is your answer. If there is one constant in the 49ers passing attack it’s Davis so you should feel pretty confident drafting him as your starting tight end in about the fifth or sixth round.

 

San Francisco 49ers in Summary

No doubt the most intriguing aspect of the 49ers offense is what happens with Frank Gore. There really isn’t a wrong side of the fence to be on in terms of what Gore has left in the tank. Many have written him off in the past and so far they have all been wrong. Eventually someone will get it right but until then take him where he’s projected. As for Kaepernick and company, the passing game isn’t the strongest point of the San Francisco offense but it’s good enough to be relevant. Vernon Davis is the clear star amongst the group with Kaepernick closely behind. Those receivers though are bigger names than they are box score threats.