Early 2020 Breakouts: Wide Receiver

April 17, 2020

Phil Clark highlights potential breakout wide receivers for the 2020 NFL season. These young WRs could be undervalued draft targets for fantasy football redraft leagues.

What was once the frenetic pace of free agency has now slowed significantly. But the player movement that took place has transformed the fantasy landscape. It has also blended with the impending NFL Draft to impact the decision-making process of owners, regardless of which formats you are involved with.

That’s why the team at RotoBaller is delivering an array of updates, articles, and rankings that provide the foundation for your roster planning and construction. Our collection of information contains analysis and data that is designed to help you evaluate the players that are already on your dynasty rosters, and determine who to target in best-ball and redraft leagues.

That includes breakdowns on players at each position that should operate as highly productive components for your teams. This article will examine five wide receivers who are now primed to deliver breakout seasons. These players will benefit from a favorable combination of talent and opportunity that should elevate them beyond the tiers where they were positioned during 2019.

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons

The progression of Ridley from a first-round draft selection to a consistent and highly productive starting option continued last year. He now enters his third season with a genuine opportunity to elevate his value further, while constructing a breakout season in the process.

After Atlanta used the 26^th overall pick on Ridley during the 2018 NFL Draft, he led all first-year receivers in scoring (WR22), receptions (64), yardage (821) and touchdowns (10). His touchdown total also tied him for fifth overall, as he averaged four receptions, 5.75 targets and 51.3 yards per game during his initial season.

Ridley’s numbers expanded in 2019, as he played in 732 (77 percent) of Atlanta’s offensive snaps from Weeks 1-14, before being sidelined with an abdominal issue in Weeks 15-17. He was also tied for 20^th in targets (93 targets/7.2 per game), 19th with 63 receptions, 22nd in receiving yards (866), seventh in touchdowns (7) and 15^th in targeted air yards (1,242).

Ridley had also finished sixth among all wide receivers in targets (37), second in receptions (27), and third in receiving yards (395) from Weeks 11-14 before his absence opened the path for Julio Jones to accumulate 35 targets, 23 receptions and 300 yards in Weeks 15-16. That was easily Jones’ most productive two-game sequence of the season.

Ridley's average depth of target also rose from 9.6 as a rookie to 13.5 in 2019, while his percentage share of teams’ air yards increased from 17.6 to 23.4. Ridley was also averaging 6.2 targets per game from Weeks 1-7 while Mohamed Sanu was with the Falcons. But his per-game average rose by 32.5 percent (8.2 per game) after Sanu was traded to New England.

His averages from Weeks 8-14 (8.2 targets/5.6 receptions/82.1 yards per game) would have propelled him to season-long numbers of 131.2 targets, 89.6 receptions, and 1,313 yards during a 16-game season. The distinct rise with Ridley's numbers following Sanu's departure is displayed below.

That bodes well for his prospects of achieving a breakout season in 2020. The elite presence of  Jones remains intact, although it has already been proven that the 31-year-old Jones and Ridley can both function as viable roster components. But Ridley's points-per-game scoring averages placed him at WR10 in standard leagues and WR14 in PPR leagues before his injury. He could exceed that level of production during his third season.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins

Washington selected McLaurin with the 76th overall pick in 2019’s NFL Draft, as  J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella and Jalen Hurd were among the 11 wide receivers that were drafted before him. McLaurin's ADP of 282 also left him outside the fantasy radar for the majority of owners.

But he entered Week 4 averaging eight targets and 5.3 receptions per game while leading all rookies in receptions (16) and touchdowns (3). He was third among receivers in percentage share of team's air yards (47.05) and also third in red zone targets (6). By Week 7, he was averaging 7.6 targets, 4.6 receptions and 81.6 yards per game.

The pace of that phenomenal start subsided, as his averages dropped to 3.2 receptions and 42 yards per game from Weeks 7-14. But McLaurin assembled 216 yards in Weeks 15-16, and he eventually finished second among rookie receivers in scoring (WR24), receptions (58) and yards-per-game average (65.6). McLaurin was also second in targets (93/6.6 per game), generated seven touchdowns and would have eclipsed 1,000 yards if he had eluded the injuries that sidelined him for two games (hamstring / concussion).

His blend of speed, athleticism and route running also provided the formula for big plays and appealing production, as McLaurin finished sixth overall in percentage share of team’s air yards (37.09), 16th in targeted air yards (14.1), 10th in yards-per-target average (9.9) and 21st in receptions of 20+ yards (15).

The Redskins have only made one offseason addition to their collection of wide receivers (Kelvin Harmon / Steven Sims / Trey Quinn / Cody Latimer), and the tight end depth chart contains Jeremy Sprinkle and Richard Rodgers. All of which leaves an uncontested path for McLaurin to continue operating as the Redskins’ primary receiving weapon. It will also supply the foundation for him to secure space, capture congested catches and prevail in one-on-one matchups once again.

Any concerns about McLaurin’s situation at quarterback are understandable. However, the apprehension about Washington's signal-callers should be offset by the magnitude of McLaurin's numbers with Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins last season. If Haskins improves as he accumulates additional starts, or another quarterback eventually stabilizes the position, then McLaurin has a legitimate opportunity to deliver the most prolific numbers of any second-year receiver. That makes him a justifiable candidate for breakout status in 2020.

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys

Gallup’s year-one production did not match the output that was assembled by other members of his 2018 draft class. But he did finish seventh among rookies in both targets (68) and receptions (33), and eighth in receiving yards (507).

He also displayed a glimpse of his potential to emerge as a consistent vertical weapon by leading all first-year receivers with 10 receptions of 20+ yards. While there was a reason for optimism that he could improve upon those numbers during 2019, owners were compelled to draft 45 other wide receivers before Gallup was selected in the middle of Round 9.

Gallup launched his second season by accumulating the NFL’s fifth-highest yardage total in Weeks 1-2 (226). He was absent in Weeks 3-4 following in-season arthroscopic surgery (knee), But Gallup still finished 23rd among all wide receivers in targets (113) and 18th with an average of 8.1 targets per game. He was also 26th in receptions (66), 18th with 1,107 receiving yards and 19th with 1,405 air yards.

He was also eighth in receptions of 20-plus yards (18) and eclipsed 100 yards in four different contests. The statistical growth that Gallup experienced in 2019 became more impressive from Weeks 10-17, as he tied for eighth in targets (67), 12th in receptions (37), and soared to fifth with 653 receiving yards during those eight matchups.

From Weeks 11-17, Gallup also accumulated more targets (57/48) and receptions (33/26) than Amari Cooper while also surpassing Cooper in receiving yards by a considerable margin (577/341).  Gallup’s numbers during that seven-game sequence are displayed below, which includes the comparison of his usage and output to Cooper's. Both receivers played in every matchup during that span with Gallup performing on 86 percent of the Cowboys' offensive while Cooper registered 75 percent.

Cooper will return in 2020, although Randall Cobb’s 83 targets in the slot will be redistributed. But consistency is not a concern with Gallup, nor is his ability to operate as a dynamic downfield weapon for Dak Prescott. Gallup also finished 12th among all receivers in yards-per-target average (9.8), seventh in yards-per-reception average (16.8) and was 11th in yards before catch per reception (11.7).

Even though Cooper will accrue favorable numbers once again, Gallup should surpass last year’s 19.5 target share. He should also sustain the momentum that he experienced during the final weeks of 2019, with reception and yardage totals that approach the top 15.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Samuel became the third wide receiver to be selected during the 2019 NFL Draft when San Francisco used the fourth pick of Round 2 to secure him. It was the second consecutive year in which the 49ers deployed a second-round pick on the position. While 2019 selection Dante Pettis remains trapped in an unremitting career free-fall, Samuel's first season delivered encouraging results that indicate the potential for a breakout season in 2020.

The 6-foot, 215-pound Samuel overcame an underwhelming sequence from Weeks 1-8 (4.2 targets/3.0 receptions/31.6 yards per game), by generating 6.2 targets, 4.4 receptions and 72 yards per game from Weeks 10-17. All three of Samuel's 100-yard performances also occurred during that span, including the 246 yards that he stockpiled in Weeks 10-11.

The escalating numbers propelled him to fourth among all rookies in receiving yards for the season (802). Samuel also finished fourth among first-year receivers in receptions (57) led newcomers in receptions of 20-plus yards (17), and tied with McLaurin for 10th among all wide receivers in yards per target average (9.9). He accomplished these results while operating from the slot on 45.7 percent of his routes and led all San Francisco wide receivers in both percentage share of team's air yards (20) and team target share (17.2).

The 49ers ranked just 31st in both pass play percentage (50.8) and passing attempts per game (28.2). George Kittle unsurprisingly paced the team in every major receiving category (107 targets / 85 receptions / 1,053 yards / 609 air yards / 23.0% target share). However, San Francisco's wide receivers registered a team target share of 50.3 percent, which ranked just 28th overall.

That percentage was attained with both Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders functioning as the team’s top two wide receiving options. But Samuel should absorb a healthy percentage of the 97 targets that became available following Sanders' exodus to New Orleans.

Even when the 49ers eventually bolster their depth chart at wide receiver (Samuel / Kendrick Bourne / Jalen Hurd / Travis Benjamin / Pettis), the breakout potential for Samuel should be clear. In addition to his projected improvement as a second-year receiver, Samuel will benefit significantly from a blend of talent and his emergence as a critical component within Shanahan's offense. This should provide owners with results that easily exceed the expectations that exist with his current ADP (68).

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

DeKaylin Zecharius Metcalf quelled all skepticism regarding his ability to perform effectively at the NFL level during his 2019 rookie season. He achieved this through steady improvement as a receiver, while he also assembled a collection of promising numbers as the season reached its conclusion.

Metcalf’s blend of speed, athleticism, and pure explosiveness was displayed during his performance at the 2019 NFL Scouting Combine (4.33  40-yard dash/40.5-inch vertical jump/11'2" broad jump). But there were concerns because he had played in just 21 games during three seasons at Mississippi. There was also considerable discussion surrounding the limitations of his route tree at Ole Miss, along with trepidation about his hands.

But Metcalf became the only rookie who reached 100 targets, and he tied for second among newcomers in receptions (58). Metcalf also finished third among first-year receivers in receiving yards (900) and touchdowns (7), was fourth in receptions of 20+ yards (13) and tied for second in receptions of 40-plus yards (4).

Metcalf also collected more red-zone targets than any other rookie (18), which placed him 10th among all wide receivers. Metcalf also led the Seahawks in average depth of target (13.0), while he also finished a close second behind Lockett in percentage share of teams’ air yards (30.2/28.8) and team target share (22.4/20.4).

Metcalf finished second to Tyler Lockett in total targets (110/100). But from Weeks 10-17 he exceeded Lockett’s totals in targets (46/38), receptions  (29/23), and receiving yardage (375/290). He also accumulated 26 targets, 17 receptions and 300 yards during the combination of Week 17 and Seattle’s two playoff contests. That includes a rookie record of 160 during the Seahawks' wild card matchup.

Metcalf should maintain that late-season momentum in 2020, as his proficiency and production should continue to rise. His acumen as a route runner should only improve, as should his understanding of how to operate with Russell Wilson. This will keep him involved as a red-zone weapon, while his prospects of delivering big plays will remain firmly intact. These factors now have Metcalf poised to deliver a breakout season.

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