Wide Receiver Touchdown Fallers for Fantasy Football - Regression Candidates

Touchdowns are an important part of fantasy football, but they're hard to predict and there are outliers every year. Which receivers will score fewer touchdowns in 2025?

Touchdowns are fickle. We know this. Every single year, this happens. Someone has a ton of targets and very few targets. It happened in 2022 with Diontae Johnson, in 2023 with Chris Godwin, and this year with Trey McBride. Then, there are always guys on the other side of the spectrum who score way more touchdowns than their volume would otherwise indicate.

In this series, we'll identify players from both sides of the spectrum at the three primary fantasy football positions: running back, wide receiver, and tight end. As we look to 2025 (a long way off), our rankings and how we perceive players are based on how well they scored in 2024. Touchdowns are a massive part of that, so it's helpful to identify which players got just a bit lucky and those who were unlucky.

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Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

McLaurin had the best fantasy season of his career this past year due to the number of touchdowns he scored. McLaurin finished as the WR14 with a 13.2 half PPR PPG average. However, we can see some red flags in his overall utilization.

McLaurin finished second among receivers with 13 touchdowns. His target volume doesn't support that number of touchdowns. He finished 18th in targets (115), 10th in red-zone targets (34), and 11th in end-zone targets (13). You can see that his touchdown ranking far exceeds where he ranks in these categories.

What's more, his elite efficiency with these targets. Of his 13 end-zone targets, McLaurin caught 10 of them for touchdowns. He had a 77 percent catch rate on his end-zone targets. From 2019-23, he caught 16 of his 44 end-zone targets (36 percent). His best individual catch rate on end-zone targets before 2024 was 45 percent.

McLaurin had a 4.1 percent touchdown rate from 2019-23, which ballooned to 11.1 percent this season. We can undoubtedly attribute Jayden Daniels and, finally, having quality quarterback play to some of the increases. In that sense, we shouldn't expect McLaurin to revert to his previous averages now that Daniels is in Washington for the foreseeable future. However, there is a massive area between the 4.1 percent he was at before and the 11.1 percent.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

St. Brown isn't quite as obvious a candidate as McLaurin, but he qualifies all the same. It wasn't until Week 13 of his rookie season that St. Brown became the superstar fantasy receiver we know today. From Week 13 of the 2021 season through 2023, St. Brown had a 5.5 percent touchdown rate. He scored 21 touchdowns on 377 targets. In 2024, his touchdown rate shot up to 8.7 percent.

That's not an egregious hike, but it's one all the same. St. Brown finished third in touchdowns this past season with 12. However, he finished eighth in targets (138), fifth in red-zone targets (38), and just 24th in end-zone targets (10). Considering the low number of end-zone targets he had, St. Brown's final touchdown tally looks a bit suspicious.

St. Brown's final touchdown rate and touchdown tally don't make him one of the most prominent regression candidates. With Jameson Williams likely to only get better, he's worth mentioning as someone who might find the end zone slightly less often in 2025.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

Higgins is one of the more obvious candidates for touchdown regression in 2025. There's very little about his touchdown tally that is likely to be repeated. He finished tied for sixth among receivers with 10 touchdowns. However, he only had 104 targets (31st), 35 red-zone targets (eighth), and 13 end-zone targets (11th). His work near the goal line allowed him to overperform, but expecting a 9.6 percent touchdown rate to repeat itself is a bad bet.

From 2020-23, Higgins had 34 end-zone targets. He caught 15 of them for a 44 percent catch rate. In 2024, he caught 13 end-zone targets for a 46 percent catch rate. That was slightly higher than his career average but not significantly so. However, from 2020-23, Higgins had a 5.9 percent touchdown rate in the games that Joe Burrow started. That increased to 9.6 percent this season.

From a passing standpoint, 2024 was a perfect storm for Burrow, Higgins, and Ja'Marr Chase. Their defense was terrible and consistently put them behind on the scoreboard. While we shouldn't necessarily expect their defense to be top 10 next season, any improvement on the defensive side of the ball could result in fewer pass attempts for the Bengals.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

Addison made this list last year and defied the odds, but that doesn't mean he's not, once again, a touchdown regression candidate heading into 2025. He scored nine touchdowns (eighth most) despite being just 39th in targets (92), 11th in red-zone targets (33), and 12th in end-zone targets (12). Like Higgins, his volume near the goal line gave him a chance to overperform in the touchdown department, and he did.

How long can fantasy managers be expecting Addison to do this, though? Last year, he had 10 touchdowns (fourth most), 104 targets (27th), 33 red-zone targets (ninth), and 11 end-zone targets (15th). Addison's utilization near the end zone has been elite in back-to-back seasons. However, there have been a couple of things working in his favor.

Top 10 WRs in expected receiving TDs *over the last 2 seasons*

1. Ja'Marr Chase (21.3)
2. Davante Adams (20.6)
3. CeeDee Lamb (20.3)
4. Mike Evans (19.7)
5. Tyreek Hill (19.2)
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown (17.6)
7. Justin Jefferson (16.8)
8. Courtland Sutton (16.7)
9. Jordan Addison…

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) January 21, 2025

First, T.J. Hockenson got hurt in 2023 and was out for half the season in 2024, lessening the target competition. That's especially true around the end zone, where quarterbacks and coaches prefer bigger targets. Secondly, the Minnesota offense, with Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold at the helm, has been fantastic the past two seasons. While head coach Kevin O'Connell deserves much credit for this, questions will persist about whether J.J. McCarthy can replicate the same efficiency.

If Darnold leaves and McCarthy is the starter, this will be the third year in a row Minnesota will have a new quarterback. If McCarthy isn't up to the task, this offense could take a step back this coming season.

Addison has a career touchdown rate of 9.7 percent. From 2016-22, Davante Adams scored the most receiving touchdowns in the world. He had seasons of 12, 13, 14, and 18 touchdowns. During this stretch, his touchdown rate was 8.0 percent. Justin Jefferson's career touchdown rate is 5.4 percent. A 9.7 percent touchdown rate is absurd and will likely fall back to the mean sooner rather than later.

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

While many may think of Quentin Johnston as the poster child for touchdown regression, for me, it’s DeVonta Smith. Everyone knows Johnston is due for regression, but eight touchdowns for Smith doesn’t sound egregious. However, based on his 2024 utilization and volume, eight touchdowns are pretty far out there. As we've noted, he finished 12th in touchdowns with eight, but just 42nd in targets with 84.

That gave him a 9.5 percent touchdown rate. From 2022-23, with Jalen Hurts as quarterback, his touchdown rate was 5.6 percent. That’s a solid number, but it’s not even close to the 9.5 percent he had this past season. Unlike Higgins and Addison, whose red-zone utilization allowed extra production in the touchdown department, Smith’s did not. He had 22 red-zone targets (33rd) and nine end-zone targets (30th).

Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Mike Evans, the three leaders in end-zone targets, caught 43.6 percent of their end-zone targets. Smith was at 66.7 percent. Not only did he score more touchdowns than his volume suggested, but his efficiency on the volume he had was off the charts.

We should expect his touchdown rate to fall in 2025. His end-zone target catch rate should also be expected to fall. Some of this will be offset by his total volume growing, but with Saquon Barkley back next year, this passing offense will continue to be second fiddle to the rushing attack.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

Reed had a disappointing sophomore season after an excellent rookie campaign. He finished 28th in touchdowns with six, but none of his utilization explains that total. He was 52nd in targets with 75, 52nd in red-zone targets with 17, and 81st in end-zone targets with three. Other players with three end-zone targets are Xavier Hutchinson, Ja'Lynn Polk, Olamide Zaccheaus, Ryan Miller, Robert Woods, Sterling Shepard, Kendrick Bourne, Johnny Wilson, Tre Tucker, and Jalen Brooks.

Reed had nine end-zone targets last year and caught four of them. We expect players to typically catch 35-50 percent of their end-zone targets. Ja'Marr Chase caught 42 percent of his this past year, Justin Jefferson caught 39 percent of his own, and Mike Evans caught 50 percent of his. Reed caught all three of his -- 100 percent. The small sample invites the potential to outperform the mean significantly, but it's just another area where Reed over-excelled.

Fantasy managers were hoping his target volume would increase this past season, but that never happened. He had an 8.5 percent touchdown rate in 2023 and an 8.0 percent in 2024. Over the past two seasons, Reed's expected touchdown total is 10.8, but he's scored 14. Don't be surprised if his touchdown rate drops dramatically. The hope is that an increase in total targets in 2025 will help offset that, but if it doesn't ... oh boy!

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

No one quite screams touchdown regression like Johnston. He finished with a 9.0 percent touchdown rate, significantly higher than Justin Jefferson (6.5 percent). That should tell you all that you need to know. Jefferson has "just a 5.47 percent" touchdown rate for his career.

Johnston finished 12th with eight touchdowns. However, none of his volume or utilization stats indicate he should have finished with anything close to that. He was just 40th in targets with 88, 21st in red-zone targets with 26, and 30th in end-zone targets with nine.

Four of his eight touchdowns came from 25 yards or more away from the end zone. Johnston turned in several long touchdown plays in 2024, and realistically, fantasy managers shouldn’t expect that to continue in 2025.

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

If you can believe it, Bateman is an even bigger touchdown regression candidate than Johnston. He finished eighth with nine touchdowns but had just 67 targets, finishing 59th in that category. His 13.4 percent dwarfed the touchdown rate of 2024 touchdown king, Ja’Marr Chase (9.7 percent).

When your touchdown rate is almost four percentage points more than that of the best receiver of the season, you can take it to the bank that your touchdown rate is falling fast and hard next year. From 2021-23, Bateman scored four touchdowns on 152 targets, 2.6 percent.

We have two extreme results from this year and what he had done in the three years prior. Granted, he dealt with injuries, but we should be cautious whenever we see extremes like this. Unlike Addison and Higgins, Bateman didn’t have strong enough utilization near the end zone to explain it.

He finished 36th in red-zone targets with 21 and 17th in end-zone targets with 11. Bateman ran hot on touchdowns in a significant way. Overachieving is possible with a quarterback and offense like he has in Lamar Jackson and Baltimore, but not to this extent.

Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While many might think of Johnston, Bateman, or even McLaurin when it comes to touchdown regression candidates, McMillan takes the cake. He finished with eight touchdowns (12th) on just 58 targets (72nd)! That is absurd.

Rookie WRs over Last Decade w/ 7+ Rec TDs on <70 Targets

2014 Martavis Bryant (PIT)
2018 Anthony Miller (CHI)
2020 Gabriel Davis (BUF)
2022 Christian Watson (GB)
2022 Jahan Dotson (WAS)
2024 Jalen McMillan (TB)

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 14, 2025

That gives him a 13.8 percent touchdown rate, even higher than Bateman’s. However, whereas Bateman finished in the top 20 in end-zone targets, McMillan came nowhere close to that ranking near the end zone. He finished with 19 red-zone targets (58th) and seven end-zone targets (42nd). He had scored a touchdown at Justin Jefferson’s career rate, and he’d have scored five fewer touchdowns. This is Justin Jefferson we’re talking about.

McMillan could earn a more prominent role in 2025 if Chris Godwin exits Tampa Bay, and that increased volume could help offset the guaranteed decrease in touchdown rate. But if Godwin returns, McMillan’s touchdown rate drops, and fantasy managers could be disappointed in 2025.

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