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2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks and team predictions for the West Region. Read Mike's March Madness picks, sleepers, and busts including teams to target and avoid and how far each team can go.
The stage is set for the 2025 NCAA Tournament. We start with a play-in appetizer, followed by the greatest weekend in sports. 48 games in four days. A field whittled down to 16 teams from 64. There is nothing on earth like it, and we here at RotoBaller will be with you every step of the way.
We'll start in the West Region. There are several dangerous lower seeds here, but the top dog is arguably the hottest team in the sport right now: the Florida Gators. Look for Florida to be the overwhelming favorite in this bracket.
Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis, including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your bracket, including other predictions for the South, Midwest, and East regions.
West Region Favorites
(1) Florida (30-4)
Florida won the last six games. In that stretch, they beat Alabama twice, Texas A&M, Missouri, and Tennessee. They also knocked off the top overall seed, Auburn, on the road last month. This proves they can beat anyone.
Led by guard Walter Clayton Jr. and a plethora of rotating bigs up front, the Gators are one of the most well-rounded teams in the entire tournament. You don't run through the SEC gauntlet without some talent.
(2) St. John's (30-4)
Ken doesn't tweet anymore but this was ? in 2023 (Purdue lost to a 16 seed, Marquette lost in Rd 2). In '24 it applied to Iowa St. who lost in Round 3 as a 2 seed.
This year, St. John's and Michigan State will be trying to break this very daunting "Bayesian priors matter" trend https://t.co/ZZ8IG4DHbE
— Joe Peta (@MagicRatSF) March 17, 2025
The committee put a who's who of coaches down in this bottom pod. We have Rick Pitino, John Calipari, and Bill Self. Yikes. I don't pay attention to every trend, but Ken Pomeroy is one of the guys I trust. His trend held true in 2023. There were none last year. It could hold true in 2025 as well.
That's not to take anything away from St. John's first conference title in 25 years. This was earned. If Deivon Smith can get back to the way he was playing in December, this team is capable of a deep run. All of the Johnnies' losses were to Quad 1 teams.
(3) Texas Tech (25-8)
Tech was the only Big 12 (16) team to beat Houston this season, and they did so in a game where JT Toppin (and the coach) were tossed within the first two minutes. It's fitting. Tech is a lot like Houston. They are built on defense and will go as far as Toppin can take them.
The Red Raiders are a dangerous three-seed. They still rank seventh in the NET rankings and were 10-5 in Quad 1 games.
(4) Maryland (25-8)
I'm shocked that Maryland got a four-seed. The relative strength of the conference helped keep them at 10 in the NET rankings, but where's the big win? Wins at Illinois and Wisconsin looked good, as did the win over the Illini in the Big Ten (18) Tournament, but this should have gone to a different Big Ten (18) team.
West Region Fatal Flaws
All teams have one or two things that could keep them from reaching their full potential. Here, we will run the gamut of the main things that will hold teams in this region back.
Florida: If the Gators have a flaw, it's free throw shooting. The Gators are only shooting 71.1 percent from the line, which is 227th in the country. If a team can force them to make free throws to hang on, it could be a problem.
St. John's: Three-point shooting. St. John's shot just 30.4 percent from beyond the arc this year. That was 343rd out of 364 teams.
Texas Tech: Rim protection. For as talented as JT Toppin and Darrion Williams are, they don't protect the rim well. Tech only averages three blocks per game this year.
Maryland: Turnovers. The Terrapins are -4 in turnover differential on the season.
Memphis: Free throw shooting. The Tigers shot just 70.5 percent from the line. That's 244th in the nation.
Missouri: This is not a good rebounding team, particularly defensively. The Tigers are 301st in defensive rebounds this year.
Kansas: Surprisingly, Kansas is not a good free-throw shooting team. They are shooting 71.1 percent from the line, which is right there with Florida.
Connecticut: This is not a good shooting team. UConn is shooting only 57.2 percent from the floor, which is 253rd in the country.
West Region Ceilings
We know the floor of every team, right? They can all lose in the first round. The top overall seed, Virginia, lost on the first day of the tournament in 2017. In this section, we'll explore the realistic ceiling of every team in the bracket.
Florida: The Gators just ran the table in the toughest conference in history in Nashville. Florida got a better draw than Auburn. Maryland or Memphis could be a problem, but the Gators match up very well with everyone else in the region. This team is capable of winning a championship.
St. John's: If Arkansas beats Kansas, that's a tough game for St. John's. So is Texas Tech or Missouri. The Johnnies could make it out of Providence, but that's the ceiling.
Texas Tech: Any team capable of beating Houston at home is a dangerous team. Tech isn't that consistent, but I like the draw here. I'll be surprised if the Red Raiders aren't in the Regional Final, but they're not beating Florida.
Maryland: This is a good team in a bad spot. Grand Canyon and Memphis will both try (and succeed) at running with Maryland. If they get out of the first weekend, Florida takes them.
Memphis: I like the build of this Memphis team, but this is a brutal draw. Colorado State is actually the early favorite in this game, and I see why. If Memphis advances, Maryland is big enough to knock them out in the first weekend.
Missouri: Missouri is not a really consistent team, but if they get hot, they can beat anyone. Missouri beat both Alabama and Florida this year. A run to the regional finals is possible.
Kansas: All of the good wins for Kansas were early in the season. This is the least disciplined Kansas team of the Bill Self era, and they lack star power. I'll be surprised if they beat Arkansas. The Jayhawks lost five of their last 10 games.
Connecticut: If Connecticut can make shots, this team has a chance at beating Florida. Maryland's interior will be a massive problem, so the Sweet Sixteen is likely the ceiling for the 2024 champs.
Oklahoma: I'm glad they're in the tournament, but this is a rough spot for the Sooners. I like them to beat UConn, but they got destroyed by Florida in the regular season. It wasn't close enough to make me think we have any chance of making it out of the first weekend.
Arkansas: Boogie Fland will be back for the NCAA Tournament, which makes Arkansas a very dangerous double-digit seed. I doubt Arkansas can topple Florida, but an Elite Eight run is possible.
Drake: If Drake can slow the game down, they could beat Missouri. The Tigers are at their best when they start fast. If Drake avoids getting buried early, they might make it out of the first round.
Colorado State: This could be one of those years where more 12-seeds win than five-seeds. This is a tough team that can be physical with Memphis and Maryland. They remind me a lot of the Yale team that took out Auburn last year. A Sweet Sixteen run is possible.
Grand Canyon: A good team with a bad draw. Maryland is way too big in the interior for the Lopes to pull the upset.
UNC-Wilmington: The Seahawks can score, are strong on the boards, and don't turn the ball over. It's a tough draw against Texas Tech, but this is a winnable game for Wilmington if things break right. If they get past Tech, a game in the second weekend is likely.
Omaha: The Mavericks are in the dance for the first time. They are good enough to keep it close with St. John's, but this team doesn't fit the profile of a team that pulls a first-round upset. If Omaha drew a team that didn't play good defense, they would have a shot, but that is where St. John's excels.
Norfolk State: I saw this team knock off Missouri in 2012. They'll win this matchup in the band and dance squad department, but Florida is better than them everywhere else on the court. An upset isn't happening this time around.
Most Intriguing First-Round Matchup
No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 10 Arkansas
Kansas vs Arkansas: the winning team gets the pronunciation.
— Terry Brown™️ (@TBrown_80) March 16, 2025
Arkansas learned to play more as a team with Boogie Fland out. Will the return of the freshman alter the chemistry? I don't think it will. Arkansas was able to beat Michigan with Fland in there and nearly beat Auburn and Alabama without him.
Kansas beat Duke and Kentucky, but after the loss to Creighton, this team stumbled. Hunter Dickinson played well down the stretch, but the lack of a star guard is a problem. If Fland is anywhere near what he was early in the season, Arkansas pulls the upset.
Bust of the West Region
For a No. 2 seed, St. John's got a tough draw if Arkansas beats Kansas. That's still kind of a big if, so I'll go with Texas Tech. Wilmington is a good team, and Missouri's guards can bury them if they get hot. Tech is going to have a hard time making it out of the first weekend.
Dark Horse Play
Colorado State. The Rams haven't lost since February 12 in a conference that was likely tougher than the ACC and on par with the Big East. They're already favored against Memphis and are playing well enough to put a scare into Maryland, if not beat them. Florida would be a different story.
The other obvious pick is Arkansas. If Fland is back to normal, Arkansas could survive until the regional final.
West Regional Picks
First round: Florida, Oklahoma, Colorado State, Maryland, Missouri, Texas Tech, Arkansas, St. John's
Second round: Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Arkansas
Regional semifinal: Florida, Arkansas
Regional champion: Florida is coming together at the right time. The whole team is healthy and one of the more balanced teams in the field.
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