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Week 6 Consistency Reports - All Positions


We now have over a quarter of a seasons worth of data at our fingertips and the cream has well and truly risen to the top. There are still some interesting names high in the rankings at quarterback and tight end. However, these are generally more variable positions. That is why both positions are often streamed on a weekly basis while running backs and wide receivers are more consistently used. However, we can still see that at every position the consistency rankings are matching the eye test in a big way.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following weeks waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Quarterbacks

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Philip Rivers 107.8 21.56 3.69 17.87 25.25 0.17 147.51
2 Alex Smith 65.18 16.3 2.7 13.6 18.99 0.17 114.64
3 CJ Beathard 42.48 21.24 4.84 16.4 26.08 0.23 114.52
4 Patrick Mahomes 131.12 26.22 8.43 17.8 34.65 0.32 107.82
5 Cam Newton 91.82 22.96 6.61 16.34 29.57 0.29 102.64
6 Deshaun Watson 112.94 22.59 6.56 16.03 29.15 0.29 100.39
7 Aaron Rodgers 108.58 21.72 6.09 15.63 27.81 0.28 99.16
8 Carson Wentz 58.96 19.65 5.59 14.06 25.24 0.28 88.74
9 Joe Flacco 90.3 18.06 4.7 13.36 22.76 0.26 87.39
10 Kirk Cousins 113.72 22.74 8.39 14.35 31.13 0.37 84.4
11 Matt Ryan 121.34 24.27 11.26 13.01 35.53 0.46 76.56
12 Andy Dalton 94.9 18.98 6.29 12.69 25.27 0.33 76.21
13 Drew Brees 122.92 24.58 12.13 12.46 36.71 0.49 74.43
14 Russell Wilson 81.64 16.33 4.59 11.74 20.92 0.28 74.38
15 Jared Goff 112.78 22.56 10.29 12.26 32.85 0.46 71.99
16 Ben Roethlisberger 108.46 21.69 9.91 11.78 31.6 0.46 69.18
17 Tom Brady 93.66 18.73 7.25 11.49 25.98 0.39 67.16
18 Andrew Luck 102.94 20.59 9.53 11.06 30.11 0.46 65.09
19 Blake Bortles 101.64 20.33 9.38 10.95 29.71 0.46 64.38
20 Ryan Fitzpatrick 100.44 25.11 16.39 8.72 41.5 0.65 63.59
21 Matthew Stafford 88.2 17.64 6.89 10.75 24.53 0.39 62.83
22 Eli Manning 74.44 14.89 4.73 10.15 19.62 0.32 61.7
23 Jimmy Garoppolo 46.02 15.34 5.76 9.58 21.1 0.38 56.19
24 Baker Mayfield 42.62 14.21 5.55 8.66 19.75 0.39 50.6
25 Dak Prescott 62.54 12.51 4.16 8.35 16.67 0.33 50.13
26 Mitch Trubisky 81.5 20.38 15.82 4.56 36.19 0.78 46.62
27 Derek Carr 78.14 15.63 8.56 7.07 24.19 0.55 44.16
28 Case Keenum 68.2 13.64 6.78 6.86 20.42 0.5 41.07
29 Sam Darnold 59.94 11.99 5.75 6.24 17.74 0.48 36.98
30 Ryan Tannehill 69.98 14 9.25 4.75 23.25 0.66 35.17

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. There are some really interesting names in the quarterback consistency rankings. There is no surprise that after matching up with the Jacksonville Jaguars defense that Mahomes has dropped a little. He threw his first interceptions of the season and failed to throw a single touchdown. However, the talent was still clearly there and he should bounce right back against the Patriots this week.

He has been replaced at the top by Rivers who has just done his thing. This week Rivers faces the impressive Browns defense. Prior to this game the best defense he had faced was probably the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo. I think you still have to start Rivers this week but do not be surprised if the stat line is somewhat ugly. Beathard is putting up numbers this season in second place but I would struggle to trust him on the road in Green Bay in prime time.

There are some names that stand out to me just outside the top-10. Ryan is a must-start at home and a must-bench on the road at this point. Brees is a must-start in most games but is on a bye this week. Wilson will continue to be up and down but this is usually the point in the season where he starts to pick it up. Goff is must-start at home and matchup dependent on the road. Rothlisberger and that offense might be starting to figure it out and getting Bell back should make him more efficient. Brady is a bit of a pain for fantasy because he basically just does what the team needs to do to win. If handing the ball off 50 times is the best way to win that is what he will do. It will make him as frustrating as hell but this week I think the Patriots need to put up a ton of yards.

 

Running Backs

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Todd Gurley 137.5 27.5 3.64 23.86 31.14 0.13 234.98
2 Saquon Barkley 119.2 23.84 3.18 20.66 27.02 0.13 202.56
3 Melvin Gordon 123.5 24.7 5.69 19.01 30.39 0.23 131.95
4 Christian McCaffrey 85.1 21.28 5.11 16.17 26.38 0.24 109.92
5 Malcolm Brown 13.1 4.37 0.21 4.16 4.57 0.05 95.97
6 Alvin Kamara 139 27.8 15.58 12.22 43.38 0.56 77.41
7 Ezekiel Elliott 103.5 20.7 7.6 13.1 28.3 0.37 77.11
8 James White 100 20 7.32 12.68 27.32 0.37 74.63
9 TJ Yeldon 91.2 18.24 7.22 11.02 25.46 0.4 64.31
10 Joe Mixon 56.1 18.7 8.25 10.45 26.95 0.44 61.09
11 David Johnson 81.2 16.24 6.01 10.23 22.25 0.37 60.15
12 James Conner 110.1 22.02 12.72 9.3 34.74 0.58 60.13
13 Javorius Allen 67.7 13.54 4.1 9.44 17.64 0.3 58.26
14 Kerryon Johnson 54.4 10.88 2.53 8.35 13.41 0.23 57.68
15 Austin Ekeler 73 14.6 5.21 9.39 19.81 0.36 55.55
16 Marshawn Lynch 70.1 14.02 4.98 9.04 19 0.36 53.47
17 Carlos Hyde 73.7 14.74 5.62 9.12 20.36 0.38 53.43
18 Raheem Mostert 3.7 1.85 0.07 1.78 1.92 0.04 50.25
19 Alex Collins 56.4 11.28 3.39 7.89 14.67 0.3 48.81
20 Kareem Hunt 79.2 15.84 7.66 8.18 23.5 0.48 48.6
21 Derrick Henry 26.1 5.22 0.67 4.55 5.89 0.13 45.98
22 Royce Freeman 49.1 9.82 2.74 7.08 12.56 0.28 44.97
23 Devonta Freeman 14.1 7.05 1.34 5.71 8.39 0.19 44.04
24 Tevin Coleman 56.4 11.28 4.16 7.12 15.44 0.37 41.9
25 Matt Breida 68.9 13.78 7.03 6.75 20.81 0.51 40.8
26 Nyheim Hines 73.3 14.66 8.27 6.39 22.93 0.56 40.63
27 Adrian Peterson 62.8 15.7 9.96 5.74 25.66 0.63 40.45
28 Chris Thompson 62 15.5 10.12 5.38 25.62 0.65 39.23
29 Isaiah Crowell 78.6 15.72 11.88 3.84 27.6 0.76 36.52
30 Phillip Lindsay 59.3 11.86 6.21 5.65 18.07 0.52 34.5
31 Bilal Powell 52.9 10.58 4.83 5.75 15.41 0.46 33.73
32 Lamar Miller 41.9 10.48 4.72 5.75 15.2 0.45 33.71
33 Wendell Smallwood 46.6 11.65 6.6 5.05 18.25 0.57 32.23
34 Giovani Bernard 55.3 13.83 10.74 3.09 24.56 0.78 31.63
35 Jay Ajayi 43.4 10.85 5.69 5.16 16.54 0.52 31.55
36 Chris Carson 47.4 11.85 7.45 4.4 19.3 0.63 30.69
37 Sony Michel 46.2 11.55 7 4.55 18.55 0.61 30.6
38 Dion Lewis 57.7 11.54 7.06 4.48 18.6 0.61 30.4
39 Ito Smith 34.7 8.68 3.49 5.18 12.17 0.4 30.21
40 Jordan Howard 44.1 11.03 6.37 4.65 17.4 0.58 30.1
41 Aaron Jones 28.8 9.6 4.97 4.63 14.57 0.52 28.13
42 Tarik Cohen 50.8 12.7 12.08 0.62 24.78 0.95 26.05
43 Theo Riddick 39.8 7.96 3.54 4.42 11.5 0.44 25.87
44 Kenyan Drake 56.7 11.34 9.41 1.93 20.75 0.83 25.01
45 Corey Clement 32.6 10.87 8.46 2.41 19.32 0.78 24.83
46 LeSean McCoy 33.4 8.35 4.32 4.03 12.67 0.52 24.47
47 Jalen Richard 47.4 9.48 6.29 3.19 15.77 0.66 23.76
48 Dalvin Cook 29.5 9.83 7.01 2.83 16.84 0.71 23.64
49 Alfred Morris 41.4 8.28 4.67 3.61 12.95 0.56 22.96
50 Ty Montgomery 36.4 7.28 3.47 3.81 10.75 0.48 22.55

Six of the top-seven are studs, with Malcolm Brown continuing to be annoyingly consistent at four points a game. Completely useless for fantasy but very consistent. At this stage you just have to ride the James White train until it is over. He is target dependent, having a season high of eight rushes but right now Brady trusts him a lot.

Around the top-10 we have a cluster of players who have a floor around eight or nine points with ceiling in the 20s or 30s. All of them are must-plays for the time being. The same goes for Ekeler at 15. Allen is extremely touchdown dependent and that makes him scary in standard type leagues.

Henry stood out above Lewis for the Titans last week but neither are getting enough carries to be a startable option right now. Freeman and Coleman are must-starts if the other is out. Right now neither can be trusted implicitly when both are healthy.

Breida is great until he gets hurt which is really frustrating. Crowell and Powell are going to be impossible to trust but with a rookie quarterback you kind of have to think the Jets will keep riding them when they can. Freeman and Lindsay are also virtually useless while both are healthy. The final frustrating pairs are Howard and Cohen and Cook and Murray. Their teams are not really committing to any of them and they are matchup and game plan dependent.

 

Wide Receivers

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Keke Coutee 39 19.5 3.11 16.39 22.61 0.16 141.72
2 Adam Thielen 123.9 24.78 5.5 19.28 30.28 0.22 136.39
3 Geronimo Allison 59.9 14.98 2.35 12.63 17.32 0.16 110.52
4 Davante Adams 103.5 20.7 4.93 15.77 25.63 0.24 107.62
5 Kenny Golladay 87.8 17.56 3.7 13.86 21.26 0.21 100.8
6 Antonio Brown 102.3 20.46 5.44 15.02 25.9 0.27 97.41
7 Mike Evans 89.6 22.4 7.14 15.26 29.54 0.32 92.7
8 Brandin Cooks 78.8 19.7 5.41 14.29 25.11 0.27 91.4
9 Tyler Lockett 79.8 15.96 3.57 12.39 19.53 0.22 87.23
10 DeAndre Hopkins 109.7 21.94 7.53 14.41 29.47 0.34 85.9
11 Jarvis Landry 73.1 14.62 3.11 11.51 17.73 0.21 83.33
12 AJ Green 96.9 19.38 6.98 12.4 26.36 0.36 73.19
13 TY Hilton 62.4 15.6 4.61 10.99 20.21 0.3 68.35
14 John Brown 77 15.4 4.55 10.85 19.95 0.3 67.49
15 Cooper Kupp 105.1 21.02 9.57 11.45 30.59 0.46 67.21
16 Odell Beckham Jr 92.1 18.42 7.01 11.41 25.43 0.38 66.8
17 Michael Thomas 115.9 23.18 13.47 9.71 36.65 0.58 63.07
18 Emmanuel Sanders 88.9 17.78 7.06 10.72 24.84 0.4 62.53
19 Juju Smith-Schuster 92 18.4 8.12 10.28 26.52 0.44 60.08
20 Julio Jones 91.5 18.3 8.21 10.09 26.51 0.45 59.08
21 Golden Tate 95 19 9.2 9.8 28.2 0.48 58.24
22 Robert Woods 95.7 19.14 9.77 9.37 28.91 0.51 56.65
23 Stefon Diggs 98.6 19.72 10.55 9.17 30.27 0.54 56.57
24 DeSean Jackson 77.4 19.35 10.53 8.82 29.88 0.54 54.91
25 Willie Snead 54.3 10.86 2.87 7.99 13.73 0.26 51.99
26 Michael Crabtree 55 11 3.02 7.98 14.02 0.27 51.12
27 Keenan Allen 75.7 15.14 6.48 8.66 21.62 0.43 50.5
28 Tyrell Williams 39.6 7.92 1.5 6.42 9.42 0.19 49.72
29 Tyreek Hill 91.2 18.24 11.03 7.21 29.27 0.6 48.41
30 Darius Jennings 4.9 1.63 0.06 1.58 1.69 0.04 47.84
31 Tyler Boyd 81.8 16.36 8.81 7.55 25.17 0.54 46.74
32 Paul Richardson 37.1 9.28 2.31 6.97 11.58 0.25 46.54
33 Ryan Grant 54.6 10.92 3.44 7.48 14.36 0.32 45.55
34 Will Fuller 64.8 16.2 9.48 6.72 25.68 0.59 43.87
35 Marvin Jones 58.1 11.62 4.21 7.41 15.83 0.36 43.71
36 Devin Funchess 47.8 11.95 4.5 7.45 16.45 0.38 43.7
37 Allen Robinson 46.7 11.68 4.54 7.14 16.21 0.39 41.71
38 Sterling Shepard 70.4 14.08 7.55 6.53 21.63 0.54 40.34
39 Chris Godwin 52.3 13.08 6.31 6.76 19.39 0.48 40.16
40 Dede Westbrook 65.5 13.1 7.08 6.02 20.18 0.54 37.35
41 Demaryius Thomas 64.3 12.86 6.8 6.06 19.66 0.53 37.17
42 Calvin Ridley 86.5 17.3 15.38 1.92 32.68 0.89 36.76
43 Danny Amendola 31.1 6.22 1.29 4.93 7.51 0.21 36.32
44 Albert Wilson 51.1 10.22 4.1 6.12 14.32 0.4 35.72
45 Cameron Meredith 26.4 8.8 3.01 5.79 11.81 0.34 34.51
46 Jordy Nelson 69.7 13.94 9.93 4.01 23.87 0.71 33.52
47 Alshon Jeffery 30.4 15.2 13.15 2.05 28.35 0.87 32.77
48 Corey Davis 68.1 13.62 10.09 3.53 23.71 0.74 32.01
49 Taylor Gabriel 56 14 10.96 3.04 24.96 0.78 31.88
50 Mohamed Sanu 57.3 11.46 6.44 5.02 17.9 0.56 31.85

Coutee has come out firing and seems to be a huge part of this offense. It will be interesting to see if he has a long-term affect on Will Fuller's value. Allison at three feels like a must-start when healthy and Lockett at nine seems to be seeing at leat a couple of deep balls a game from Wilson. At this stage he is becoming hard to ignore as he is pulling in at least one of them.

Jones, Tate and Woods around the 20 mark are frustrating because of the amount of weapons in their offense. All remain must-starts but there will be frustrating weeks. The same goes for Allen and Hill.

Boyd is an interesting name simply because I expect him to have success this week. If the Bengals matchup with a decent number one back then they will need to lean on Boyd to relieve the pressure on Green and Dalton. Thomas is driving me insane at this point and I have lost all faith. You ether have to blindly start him or commit to sitting him, but whichever you do will likely be the wrong choice. I expect Davis to draw coverage from Jimmy Smith this week which could make for a tough day for the Titans number one.

 

Tight Ends

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Zach Ertz 90.7 18.14 7.01 11.13 25.15 0.39 65.07
2 Kyle Rudolph 57.9 11.58 3.31 8.27 14.89 0.29 52.15
3 Travis Kelce 86.7 17.34 10.33 7.01 27.67 0.6 46.43
4 Eric Ebron 81.5 16.3 8.95 7.35 25.25 0.55 45.99
5 Tyler Conklin 3.3 1.65 0.07 1.58 1.72 0.04 40.15
6 George Kittle 68.9 13.78 7.21 6.57 20.99 0.52 40.13
7 Jared Cook 81 16.2 11.82 4.38 28.02 0.73 38.41
8 Hakeem Valles 3.1 1.55 0.07 1.48 1.62 0.05 35.53
9 Jimmy Graham 52.5 10.5 4.88 5.62 15.38 0.46 33.09
10 Geoff Swaim 35.9 8.98 3.35 5.63 12.32 0.37 33.05
11 Jermaine Gresham 4 2 0.14 1.86 2.14 0.07 30.28
12 Jordan Reed 39.9 9.98 4.94 5.04 14.91 0.5 30.13
13 Tyler Eifert 38.9 9.73 4.65 5.07 14.38 0.48 30.05
14 Rob Gronkowski 59.8 11.96 8.26 3.7 20.22 0.69 29.28
15 Trey Burton 40.6 10.15 5.89 4.26 16.04 0.58 27.65
16 David Njoku 39 7.8 3.61 4.19 11.41 0.46 24.66
17 Austin Hooper 47.2 9.44 6.79 2.65 16.23 0.72 22.56
18 Ben Watson 35.7 7.14 3.39 3.75 10.53 0.47 22.18
19 OJ Howard 39.2 9.8 7.97 1.83 17.77 0.81 21.84
20 Vance McDonald 39.6 9.9 8.5 1.4 18.4 0.86 21.43
21 Jack Doyle 17 8.5 6.36 2.14 14.86 0.75 19.85
22 Will Dissly 35.6 8.9 8.98 -0.08 17.88 1.01 17.72
23 Cameron Brate 24.3 8.1 7.02 1.08 15.12 0.87 17.45
24 Mark Andrews 30.5 6.1 3.36 2.74 9.46 0.55 17.19
25 Evan Engram 26.4 8.8 9.45 -0.65 18.25 1.07 16.99
26 Jesse James 42.8 8.56 9.48 -0.92 18.04 1.11 16.29
27 Jake Butt 16.5 5.5 3.04 2.46 8.54 0.55 15.44
28 Demetrius Harris 17.7 5.9 3.82 2.08 9.72 0.65 15.02
29 Ricky Seals-Jones 28.3 5.66 3.82 1.84 9.48 0.68 14.04
30 Maxx Williams 26.7 5.34 3.36 1.98 8.7 0.63 13.83

The top three names do not really surprise me and as long as Jack Doyle is absent Ebron is going to be right around the top five.. Kittle and Cook have both been great and Graham seems to be finding that connection with Rodgers now. Swaim has stepped up and become a decent option for the Cowboys. However, his ceiling is not high.

Reed, Gronkowski and Burton remain must-starts. Their rankings look low but if you remove the low ceiling guys and the injured Eifert, they rank 9-10-11. I believe Howard should be right there and the injury hit game in Chicago has hurt his ranking, but his big play dependency might be an issue some weeks.

Finally, McDonald and James are likely to frustrate this year as both can feature game-to-game depending on the game plan.

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