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Ed Sutelan analyzes the performance of recently promoted MLB prospects and how they factor into the 2016 fantasy baseball picture in week 21.
I want to preface this article by saying that there are literally only two players I advise owning in any format on this list.
Sure, some of these guys may be intriguing, but there are two standout players and there are others who are on there just because I have spots to fill. But if you are like me, it is always interesting to learn more about some of these guys so you should definitely read this whole article anyways 🙂
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Hitters
Yulieski Gurriel (3B, HOU) - 7% owned
Ah, the cream of the crop. The top guy to own from this list, Gurriel is a slugging third baseman who will probably keep the job on lock for the remainder of the season. Though young superstar Alex Bregman has started to hit of late, Gurriel forces Bregman to move into left field. The 32-year-old corner infielder may be sidelined with an injury for now, but it won’t be long until he reclaims the role for himself.
And that is certainly a good thing for fantasy owners. Scouts have praised Gurriel’s ability to hit for 20+ home run power with a solid batting average to boot. He is not really going to steal any bases, but batting in the middle of what could be a very potent Houston lineup could provide Gurriel with plenty of opportunities to rack up some ribbies.
Gurriel is not a typical prospect because he is so much older than most players, but that shouldn’t deter owners in redraft leagues. Dynasty league owners should only stash the Cuban veteran if they are competing in the next two or three seasons or hope to flip him for a nice couple of prospects. Gurriel should be owned in all leagues at this point.
Patrick Kivlehan (3B, SD) - 1% owned
Kivlehan is easily the most intriguing of the undesirables. The 26-year-old third baseman has demonstrated power in the past, particularly in a promising 2015 campaign when he hit 22 home runs and swiped 14 stolen bases. Wow! That’s great! Why is he undesirable?
It really has to do with what he has done in all of his time outside of that season. Though he had previously flashed some reasonable pop having blasted 20 home runs twice in his MiLB career, he has not hit for much power in this season. He has also seen a major increase in his strikeout rates and a major decline in his walk rates. He has also not flashed electric enough speed to reasonably expect him to contribute stolen bases on a regular basis. Another area of concern is the fact he is not liable to start at third consistently with Yangervis Solarte and he won’t get much time in the outfield, particularly when September rolls around and guys like Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe reach the big leagues. He may be worth a flier just for shoots and giggles, but redraft leagues can leave him alone.
Kaleb Cowart (3B, LAA) - 0% owned
Angels prospect? No thank you. What a time we have come to where all you need to do is write off a prospect by looking over what team they have come from. Cowart is a decent prospect, but he is not expected to have any kind of fantasy impact this season. Though he has a little bit of speed, he lacks power, strikes out way too much and has hit for an average only with the help of extremely high BABIPs. So yes, this is just another forgettable Angels’ prospect.
Marco Hernandez (2B/3B, BOS) - 0% owned
Oof, this one really hurts me deep inside. If you follow me on Twitter (which I highly advise all of you to do @Redsguy1869), you will know that I own Andrew Benintendi in all my leagues. Dynasty, 12 team redrafts, 10 team redrafts, eight team redrafts, you name it, I own him there. Well, the only reason I am here talking about Marco Hernandez is because he was promoted to take the place of Benintendi who hurt his knee and now appears questionable for the rest of the season.
Hernandez is actually one of the younger prospects on this list at only 23 years of age, but that does not mean he is a talent worth owning. Sure, he has displayed no issue hitting for a decent average in the minors, but he has below-average power and virtually no speed, leaving him as a one category contributor. Not to mention he will only be used as a bench bat and possible spot starter with Chris Young and Brock Holt likely to split time in left field. He can be ignored in all formats.
Mike Freeman (2B/SS/OF, SEA) - 0% owned
I’m sorry to be so down on all these guys, but one has to be a realist when giving fantasy advice. And a realist will tell you that a guy who has only 11 stolen bases this season and 11 home runs since the start of the 2014 campaign is not worth owning. Not to mention Freeman really only has value if he receives starting time and that is most definitely something owners should not be able to count on. The 29-year-old is a decent Triple-A starter, but it if safe to say that he will not crack a big league lineup for any extended period of time. Sorry Freeman!
Pitchers
Jeff Hoffman (SP, COL) - 1% owned
Is it just me, or does every starting pitcher get kicked around in his big league debut? If we’re being totally honest though, you really can’t pin too much blame on Hoffman. He debuted in Coors Field against the Cubs. Even the finest of starting pitchers would not want to be assigned that type of an outing.
Regardless of the rough debut, there is a lot to like with Hoffman. In fact, you take away Coors Field and he would be considered a must own in all regards. He has an electric fastball that can reach the upper-90s and sits around 95. Throw in a wicked hook like he has and solid changeup that has made great improvements in 2016 and you’ve got a guy with front of the rotation potential. And as if it couldn’t get much better, he also has great control over his pitches.
So should you the fantasy owner be totally scared away from Hoffman because of his debut? Heck no! . . . well maybe just a little bit. I know all of you read my Top 30 MLB ready prospect lists and you may have noticed that I have not been overly high on Hoffman. That is because he allowed a somewhat high 0.83 HR/9 at Triple-A and anyone who may have even the slightest issue with home runs will be picked apart in Coors Field. I think Hoffman is solid enough to pull a Jon Gray and become a good starter regardless of his home field, but his debut says that owners should approach him with caution until he acclimates to the higher altitude. Owners in 12+ team leagues should make the investment in him, but leave him as a spot starter for away games until he proves he is totally ready to be trusted.
Brent Suter (SP, MIL) - 0% owned
Remember when I said starters get roughed up in their big league debut a lot? Well the same applies for Mr. Suter here. The only thing is instead of facing an elite offense in a hitter friendly ballpark, he played a suspect offense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Yes, he allowed four runs on seven hits (two dingers) while walking three and punching out two across 4.1 innings against Seattle at Safeco. Now after his less than stellar outing, the soft-throwing southpaw is on his way to the bullpen to become a LOOGY. Say bye bye to any fantasy upside he may have at one point had.
Rob Zastryzny (RP, CHC) - 0% owned
Now here’s an interesting case. Zastryzny (don’t ask me to pronounce it for you) was recently promoted to serve as a reliever after posting up some solid, albeit pedestrian numbers at Triple-A this season. Down with Iowa, Zastryzny owned a 4.33 ERA and 4.18 FIP which is not altogether bad considering that he also had an 8.56 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9.
But you see now here’s the problem. The Cubs are loaded at the starting pitcher position and have another lefty who is ahead of him on the depth chart in terms of spot starters (Mike Montgomery). The most likely thing that will happen is Zastryzny will be used as a lefty middle relief pitcher for the likely NL Central Division champions. He can be overlooked in all leagues.
Felix Pena (RP, CHC) - 0% owned
Hey look at this, another Cubs player. But wait . . . he’s another reliever. And unlike the aforementioned southpaw (don’t ask me to type out that name again), this guy has pretty much always been destined for the bullpen. He has an mid-90s fastball that he has some wicked movement. He also has a reliable slider that has proven to be an average pitch for him. But outside of that, the righty lacks the stuff needed to stay in the rotation. He will likely be used as a middle-reliever just like Mr. Z. The olive branch I will extend is that Pena does have some strikeout upside that could be useful in deeper leagues so if you desperately need punchout and a reasonably low ERA, Pena could be a decent sleeper find. But for those of you in normal size redraft leagues, keep looking elsewhere.
J.B. Wendelken (RP, OAK) - 0% owned
The last reliever on this list and another with some decent swing-and-miss upside. Wendelken posted a promising 12.72 K/9 prior to his promotion from Nashville. So what’s the problem? Well, command has been his biggest issue. He saw a major uptick in strikeouts from his season prior, but he also saw a ridiculous increase in his walks. He was walking roughly five batters per nine innings before receiving the call. So yes, he will provide you strikeouts. But at the cost of a high ERA, high WHIP and probably few opportunities to come in as a reliever, particularly when rosters expand. You can forget about him in all formats.
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