Week 17 Fantasy Busts? Players Who May Disappoint Include Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Calvin Ridley

December 30, 2023

Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 17 of the 2023 season? Andrew Ball identifies potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid for this upcoming week.

Did you realize that championship weekend for fantasy football is here? If you didn't, don't worry. I'll only mention it several more times throughout the article.

This is what we all play for, and lineup decisions can be the difference in claiming the trophy or holding the unfortunate title of first loser.

As you prepare to set your lineups for a victorious Week 17, potential fantasy landmines may need to find a spot on your bench. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts for Week 17 of the NFL season.

Tua Tagovailoa at Baltimore

There were warnings given that Tua Tagovailoa could struggle in the fantasy postseason and that's been the case so far. While he nearly hit the 300-yard passing mark against Dallas, just one score stunted his fantasy numbers. He's the QB20 in the fantasy playoffs so far.

Injuries are catching up to him. He's physically fine, but all the talent around him is not. The offensive line is (and will continue to be) missing key pieces from their Week 1 starting unit. Tyreek Hill missed a game with a bum ankle. Raheem Mostert got banged up on Sunday. Jaylen Waddle is dealing with a high-ankle sprain which will likely keep him on the sidelines.

The injury onslaught is coming at the worst possible time for Miami. Just one game behind Baltimore for the top seed in the AFC playoffs, a win in Maryland would put them in the driver's seat. Even if everyone was healthy, it may not make a difference.

The Baltimore defense is the best unit in the NFL. They've been named in the upper echelon for the entire season, but it's hard to dispute they're in the top spot after making now-former MVP favorite Brock Purdy actually look like Mr. Irrelevant.

With his weapons hampered at best and a date with the best defense on the road, I'm avoiding Tagovailoa in Week 17.

Tony Pollard vs. Detroit

Tony Pollard has been one of fantasy football's biggest busts (based on ADP) in the 2023 season, so it's only fitting that he's a potential bust in the fantasy championship. In the last two weeks, Dallas' RB1 has totaled 100 yards through the air and on the ground, including just three catches for 10 yards. His scoreless streak, somewhat miraculously, hit three games. If only he had stretched the pitch out to the pylon instead of cutting back inside...

But let's leave the past in the past. If fantasy managers survived Pollard's ineffectiveness, can they trust him in Week 17? The entire Dallas offense is significantly better at home.

Pollard's success, however, is not dictated by whether the 'Boys are back in town. If anything, he's run more efficiently on the road (4.23 to 3.87 yards per carry) and three of his five touchdowns have come away from AT&T Stadium.

Last week in this column, I noted that the Detroit Lions are the only defense to hold opposing running backs to under 900 yards this season. Their total was at 868 rushing yards when the article was published. Amazingly, they're still under that mark, holding Ty Chandler and Alexander Mattison to a combined 16 yards on the ground in Week 16. Backs aren't making up for it in the passing game either, with Detroit surrendering the fifth-fewest catches to the position.

Saquon Barkley vs. Los Angeles Rams

Saquon Barkley is not being moved to benches for the fantasy championship, but there are red flags about a potential bust. He's alternated between strong games (greater than 14.3 PPR points) and awful ones (fewer than 7.2 PPR points) since Week 9. He scored 19.4 points last time out. If he follows the pattern, he's due for a dud.

The Rams' defense will do everything they can to keep that pattern in check. Over the entire season, that unit is third for the fewest fantasy points to running backs. They've been even better over the last four weeks, jumping to the pole position. They've shut down James Conner -- who would go on to be the RB3 in his following three games -- and Alvin Kamara, who was limited to 16 yards on five catches.

That's what the Rams do best, stifling running backs as soon as they catch a pass. Despite allowing the 19th-most receptions to the position, they've given up the second-fewest yards. Barkley gets a little bit of a boost in PPR formats.

At least fantasy managers know the Pro Bowl back won't be taken off of the field, no matter the game script. But if the Giants fall behind early to one of the hottest teams in football, his touches may suffer.

Derrick Henry at Houston

Derrick Henry has historically dominated the Texans in his career (106.8 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in 13 games), but we can't forget what happened most recently. In the worst performance of his career, the Texans held Henry to nine yards on 16 carries. He also caught four passes, which earned him one yard. That's a grand total of 10 yards if you're doing the math at home.

DeMeco Ryans has completely flipped the script on what was one of the worst rush defenses in football a year ago. Running backs are averaging just 3.1 yards per carry against this front. So, it's not just Henry that's getting clamped. Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, Javonte Williams, and Travis Etienne Jr. all joined Henry in averaging worse than four yards per carry. The Browns' backs and Etienne were held under three.

The Titans' offense averages 14 points on the road this season versus 22 in Nashville. That's caused Henry's average carries to drop by six when playing in enemy territory. He's also averaging 1.4 fewer yards per attempt. Regardless of whether Will Levis or Ryan Tannehill is under center, the offense will likely stay grounded against Houston and King Henry will suffer.

Khalil Herbert vs. Atlanta

"Everything is squared away."

With those four simple words, Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus made things messier. He's referring to running back D'Onta Foreman returning to the team. The veteran missed their last game against Arizona due to a personal issue.

Khalil Herbert shined against Arizona with Foreman inactive. The Week 1 starter galloped for a season-high 112 yards on a season-high 20 carries and scored his first rushing touchdown of the campaign. It was Herbert's second start since Week 6. He missed a chunk of time midseason with an injury and was largely relegated to a reserve role in the last three weeks.

It wasn't necessarily Foreman that was getting in the way of Herbert. In Week 12, rookie Roschon Johnson earned the bulk of the carries. Foreman was the lead man in Week 14. In Week 15, the carries were split almost evenly into thirds.

Even if Herbert is named the starter and maintains the featured role with all three backs available, the matchup against Atlanta is far more difficult than Arizona. The latter gives up the most fantasy points to running backs this season. The former just surrendered their first rushing touchdown of the season to the position last week.

Calvin Ridley vs. Carolina

Calvin Ridley had negative points at halftime in Week 16. Not zero. Negative. It wasn't until the Jaguars were down 20 at halftime and forced to throw before Ridley entered the green.

Of course, that's why they play the entire 60 minutes. He ended up being the WR8 for the week, scoring twice in garbage time. That game against Tampa Bay is a microcosm of Ridley's maddeningly inconsistent play in 2023.

Questions at quarterback aside (Trevor Lawrence is dealing with several issues), Ridley's matchup for championship weekend isn't ideal. The Panthers allow the fourth-fewest points to opposing wide receivers. When the matchup gets tough for Ridley, he buckles. In Weeks 14 and 15 against Cleveland and Baltimore (two elite defenses), he combined for nine catches for 92 yards.

The Jaguars are riding a four-game losing streak. C.J. Beathard may be starting in place of the injured Lawrence. Coach Doug Pederson should lean on Etienne against a shaky run defense to right the ship.

Drake London at Chicago

Week 15: 3 targets, 2 catches, 24 yards

Week 16: 4 targets, 3 catches, 39 yards

Drake London has been listed in this column every week of the fantasy playoffs and he's busted every time out. The matchup (with a sprinkle of weather) was to blame the first time around. Quarterback play was the culprit the second time.

There's even more evidence against London in Week 17. For starters, the Falcons are on the road in chilly Chicago on Sunday. The former first-round pick has 17 fewer catches and 336 fewer yards on the road than at home this season in the same amount of games.

London has logged nine catches for 101 yards in almost three full games with Taylor Heinicke under center. The journeyman quarterback will get the start once again as the Falcons attempt to sneak into the postseason.

Lastly, the Bears have allowed the sixth-fewest yards to receivers since Week 11. Don't depend on a London touchdown to salvage his day. After all, he only has two of those in the entire 2023 campaign.

Gabe Davis vs. New England

Don't buy the hype. Don't do it. Resist the temptation!

Big Game Gabe awoke from his December slumber to take advantage of a cupcake secondary and give FOMO to every fantasy manager who had benched or cut him long ago. Instead of the goose eggs he'd been sitting on for two weeks, Davis delivered 130 yards and a touchdown on four catches.

But we've been here before. Remember the final game in November, when Davis also took advantage of one of the worst pass defenses in football? He tallied 105 yards and a touchdown on six catches against the Eagles. Then, he said "I'm good" for a few weeks and didn't produce a single stat.

The secondary Buffalo sees on Sunday will not be as kind to Davis. Bill Belichick is ultra-familiar with what his divisional rival does every week. In Week 7, Davis was held to one catch for six yards on five targets against this same secondary. Dalton Kincaid was the leading receiver. Belichick will not let the explosive playmakers (Davis and Stefon Diggs) beat him. As poor as the Patriots are this season, the defense is still rock solid (eighth-fewest yards per game).

Davis is averaging 1.8 catches for 20.5 yards in six career games against New England. His best performance is two catches for 30 yards and a touchdown in Week 13 of 2021.

George Kittle at Washington

The Washington Commanders have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends over the last four weeks. It sounds far-fetched because that unit has been horrendous and allows the most points per game (30.2) by a significant margin. But it's true.

That's sort of the point, though. They are so bad against wide receivers and running backs that tight ends don't produce (and they don't have to for their team to win).

As of this writing, the 49ers are 13-point road favorites. It's almost a guarantee that this game will not be close. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, or Brandon Aiyuk (or even Kittle) will have a big game. Probably even two of them. Kittle ranks at the bottom of the list, however. He is, generally speaking, the fourth option in this offense.

Expect a heavy dose of McCaffrey and the receivers on Sunday. If Kittle doesn't get his points early, the scoring may never come.

Dalton Schultz vs. Tennessee

Would you believe that the lone touchdown that the Titans have allowed to tight ends this season was to Colby Parkinson of all people? And it was a game-winning score with under a minute remaining?

Dalton Schultz isn't getting that play called for him. He's not that kind of player. He's only lined up out wide on 11 percent of his snaps this season.

Getting C.J. Stroud (concussion) back could help Schultz's stock. However, Case Keenum had been leaning on the tight end in his two starts, culminating in 16 targets, 12 catches, and 119 yards. His time with Stroud was a bit more up and down.

The Tennessee defense is banged up and running back Devin Singletary exploded for 170 total yards last time out against the Titans. Stroud also has his top receiving option, Nico Collins, back in the lineup. The odds are far greater that those are the two beneficiaries of the matchup, not the tight end who is facing the best defense against the position.

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