RADIO
Solid showing on the buy side last week, as all three pitchers produced quality starts. Of course, both Scott Kazmir and Carlos Martinez spun gems of their own.
At least Dan Haren had the courtesy to toss out a clunker against the Cardinals, although he actually pitched well. For once this season, the vagaries of batted ball luck were against the soft-tossing veteran.
Editor’s Note: to read about waiver wire options for starting pitchers, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily.
Starting Pitcher Buys
Michael Pineda, New York Yankees
Speaking of batted ball misfortune, that’s one way to explain what happened to Pineda against the Phillies last week. There’s serious danger in reading too much into one bad game, even if it came against the unequivocal worst team in baseball. Owners tend to remember these kinds of meltdowns, however, especially when they happen on Mondays in head-to-head leagues. Pineda has had a few rough days since striking out 16 Orioles on May 10. As a result, his ERA has ballooned by a run and a half. The elite strikeout and walk numbers remain, though. It’s worth testing the waters to see if whoever owns Pineda in your league has soured on him a little.
Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians
Salazar and his compatriots in the Indians rotation have appeared in this space multiple times, and I see no reason to stop beating that drum. Salazar isn’t perfect – his iffy command leaves him prone to the long ball, and he could stand to be a bit more economical. But he’s third in the majors in K/9, fifth in SIERA, and he’s cut down on the walks (remember, control and command are not the same thing). Thanks to the recent promotions of Francisco Lindor and Giovanni Urshela, Salazar might even have a competent defensive team behind him now. He’s struggled a bit his last couple of turns, so this might be your best chance to buy low.
Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Sox
This season hasn’t exactly gone according to plan for the Pale Hose, as they currently occupy the basement of the AL Central. Samardzija got off a poor start himself, but appears to be righting the ship. In his last three starts, Shark has posted a solid 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 21 strikeouts against just two walks. His BABIP and strand rate suggest he could be the beneficiary of some positive regression moving forward. It’s unlikely that his owners have forgotten his early struggles, and he did open this month with back-to-back blowups. The window to get him at a discount might still be open. He could be moved to a contender before the trade deadline as well, further boosting his rest of season value.
Starting Pitcher Sells
Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
Gray is an excellent pitcher, and there’s evidence to support his improvement this season. However, these things make him an ideal sell-high candidate. Changes in his repertoire aside, Gray is still outpitching his peripherals and benefiting from a touch of good fortune in the batted ball department. It’s true that his home field helps suppress BABIP and homers, but we can still expect his strand rate to come down a little. The pullback may have already begun, as Gray’s last couple starts have seen his ERA finally rise above the 2.00 mark. You probably won’t regret hanging on to him, but it’s tough to imagine his value being higher than it is right now.
Hector Santiago, Los Angeles Angels
Santiago appeared on this list a month ago, and not much has changed. He’s still wildly overachieving thanks to the deadly one-two punch of unsustainable BABIP and strand rate. Regression is not always swift or automatic, but Santiago simply allows too many homers to maintain his current production whenever the other shoe finally does drop. Only nine pitchers have ever finished a full season with a strand rate above 85%, and Santiago’s current 89% mark would be the highest in baseball history. Would you rather bet on that holding up, or let somebody else worry about it?
Miguel Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles
Apart from a modest bump in strikeouts that’s mostly offset by a corresponding increase in homers, Gonzalez appears to be the same pitcher he’s always been. He does have a history of posting low BABIPs and outpitching his peripherals as a result. This seems to stem mostly from an elite pop-up rate, as Gonzalez is tied for fifth among all pitchers there since breaking into the bigs in 2012. If your league counts pop-ups, great (and also, what?), but Gonzalez is a fringe starter or streamer in most formats. Someone in your league think he’s more than that? Get them to put their money where their mouth is.
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